2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[tector]

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

If very recent history is any indication -- you might want to flirt around with something very lightly raced that won either a turf or synthetic route in fast time.

Big Brown won his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga -- got the fastest Saratoga 2yo Turf Beyer of the decade. Barbaro ran a triple digit Beyer in a turf route as a 2yo in his 2nd start. He was the fastest 2yo turf horse since Incurable Optimist.

Even Animal Kingdom won his maiden race 2nd time out by a good margin running an 84 Beyer going 9 furlongs at Keeneland in October. Wise Dan's Presque Isle Mile was UNQUESTIONABLY the best performance by any horse at PID this year. He just crushed the Graded Stakes Fayette at 9fs by a wide margin and got only a 97 Beyer in victory. You're talking about an older male Graded Stakes winner dominant in wide margin victory -- only 13 points faster than a 2nd time starter 2yo attempting 9fs.

Any lightly raced 2yo who can run in the 100 range routing on the turf - or 85 range routing on synthetic - is worth a look. The less classier his beaten competion the better. In theory, surface should matter... but distance has suddenly become of MAJOR importance because of how lightly raced and trained these horses are now compared to even six years ago.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

[Rudeboyelvis]

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

It's not a redboard if you post about it before the race.

What's outlandish about it? If My Miss Aruillia is even money instead of 2/1 the race works out way better for me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

He did tell me 2 weeks before that she was his lock of the weekend.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

I think I gave you Musical Romance, no?

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

Oh my God.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

The funny thing about her is that I picked her 2nd in the Masters Stakes and this is what I wrote about her in the newspaper tip sheet for that race:

4. Musical Romance: An extremely good horse on other surfaces, but she ran poorly in her only prior synthetic start.

http://www.goerie.com/article/201109...Masters-Stakes


Obviously, Musical Romance put the synthetic questions to rest when she won the Masters at 9/1 odds and beat Switch in the Kee Stakes -- where she was 2nd beaten a nose against a speed biased winner at 6fs.

I was too sucked in on only Switch and Tanda in the multi-wins.

But what a nice horse Musical Romance is. She's excellent on all 3 different surfaces -- she's Calder tough -- ran something like 16 times this year and about 30 times the last two years. She's willing to ship all over and race on the road. It would be a travesty if they don't give her champion filly and mare sprinter this year.