2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

[Rudeboyelvis]

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

It's not a redboard if you post about it before the race.

What's outlandish about it? If My Miss Aruillia is even money instead of 2/1 the race works out way better for me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

He did tell me 2 weeks before that she was his lock of the weekend.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

I think I gave you Musical Romance, no?

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

Oh my God.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

The funny thing about her is that I picked her 2nd in the Masters Stakes and this is what I wrote about her in the newspaper tip sheet for that race:

4. Musical Romance: An extremely good horse on other surfaces, but she ran poorly in her only prior synthetic start.

http://www.goerie.com/article/201109...Masters-Stakes


Obviously, Musical Romance put the synthetic questions to rest when she won the Masters at 9/1 odds and beat Switch in the Kee Stakes -- where she was 2nd beaten a nose against a speed biased winner at 6fs.

I was too sucked in on only Switch and Tanda in the multi-wins.

But what a nice horse Musical Romance is. She's excellent on all 3 different surfaces -- she's Calder tough -- ran something like 16 times this year and about 30 times the last two years. She's willing to ship all over and race on the road. It would be a travesty if they don't give her champion filly and mare sprinter this year.