2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by philcski

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

Agreed. . . that's about half his fair odds at best.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

Legit Derby contender or not, 75-1 seems like an underlay on him at this point in time in my opinion.

No offense intended, but I don't think you are able to separate your being a fan and how you rate horses. If this horse had a different sire you wouldn't be nearly as interested in him as you are.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Legit Derby contender or not, 75-1 seems like an underlay on him at this point in time in my opinion.

No offense intended, but I don't think you are able to separate your being a fan and how you rate horses. If this horse had a different sire you wouldn't be nearly as interested in him as you are.

The only truth to that is that I became aware of the horse because of his sire.

Had I happened to have seen his debut otherwise, I'd have been impressed with the late flying move he made when he finally got his act together.

Again, he seems like a horse to me that will improve a lot as both the distances get longer and he gets more seasoning.

Combine that with what looks to be yet another lackluster group of classic horses, and, well, I think the horse is in the upper echelon of soon to be 3yos that have a real shot of winning the Derby.

I have never been a fan of Dynaformer, in the least, but I was utterly convinced Barbaro was going to win the Derby, even before his so called lackluster dirt debut in the Holy Bull. More so afterwards, come to think of it.

The only offspring of IC I ever liked for the Derby was Uncle Mo, but I also thought it was unlikely he'd run in it.

I thought Indian Blessing was overrated, and this was after watching her win twice. This from a person who said she was going to win the BCJF race before she made her first start.

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

Betsy says the same thing.

[Dahoss]

Is taking a picture of winning tickets the new cool thing to do?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The only truth to that is that I became aware of the horse because of his sire.

Had I happened to have seen his debut otherwise, I'd have been impressed with the late flying move he made when he finally got his act together.

Again, he seems like a horse to me that will improve a lot as both the distances get longer and he gets more seasoning.

Combine that with what looks to be yet another lackluster group of classic horses, and, well, I think the horse is in the upper echelon of soon to be 3yos that have a real shot of winning the Derby.

I have never been a fan of Dynaformer, in the least, but I was utterly convinced Barbaro was going to win the Derby, even before his so called lackluster dirt debut in the Holy Bull. More so afterwards, come to think of it.

The only offspring of IC I ever liked for the Derby was Uncle Mo, but I also thought it was unlikely he'd run in it.

I thought Indian Blessing was overrated, and this was after watching her win twice. This from a person who said she was going to win the BCJF race before she made her first start.

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

Indian Blessing was a dam fast filly. How was she overrated?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Indian Blessing was a dam fast filly. How was she overrated?

She wasn't, even if her 4YO campaign was basically wrecked by a trip to Dubai. She was very good.

IC also said that he thought Uncle Mo's King's Bishop was overrated while his Timely Writer was extraordinary.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Indian Blessing was a dam fast filly. How was she overrated?

I just think a lot of people thought she was better than she really was.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

[RockHardTen1985]

Its all apples and oranges if you ask me. Who can really make a line now, 7 months out? Im not sure how anyone can project what is fair and not fair.
Liason for example at 75-1, I really have no clue about that. If he wins the Grade 1 coming up at Hollywood what will his odds be? He should be favored to win that race, so maybe 75-1 is value.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

[tector]

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

If very recent history is any indication -- you might want to flirt around with something very lightly raced that won either a turf or synthetic route in fast time.

Big Brown won his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga -- got the fastest Saratoga 2yo Turf Beyer of the decade. Barbaro ran a triple digit Beyer in a turf route as a 2yo in his 2nd start. He was the fastest 2yo turf horse since Incurable Optimist.

Even Animal Kingdom won his maiden race 2nd time out by a good margin running an 84 Beyer going 9 furlongs at Keeneland in October. Wise Dan's Presque Isle Mile was UNQUESTIONABLY the best performance by any horse at PID this year. He just crushed the Graded Stakes Fayette at 9fs by a wide margin and got only a 97 Beyer in victory. You're talking about an older male Graded Stakes winner dominant in wide margin victory -- only 13 points faster than a 2nd time starter 2yo attempting 9fs.

Any lightly raced 2yo who can run in the 100 range routing on the turf - or 85 range routing on synthetic - is worth a look. The less classier his beaten competion the better. In theory, surface should matter... but distance has suddenly become of MAJOR importance because of how lightly raced and trained these horses are now compared to even six years ago.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

[Rudeboyelvis]

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

Depends on what we're calling a lights out performance, I guess.

15 of the 23 horses broke their maiden by 2 lengths or more. 12 of the 21 I have BSF for earned a figure of 84 or higher.