2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If Motor City is 225-1 I'd have to take a bit of that.

What do you like about this horse? Street Sense CD????

[Seattleallstar]

Id take a flyer on Optimizer at 175/1. Wasnt great but wasnt horrible. Hopefully D Wayne will put him on the trail, win a race as a 3 yr old, then run avg races in the Derby preps. THEN BOOM another D wayne bomb in a big race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Id take a flyer on Optimizer at 175/1. Wasnt great but wasnt horrible. Hopefully D Wayne will put him on the trail, win a race as a 3 yr old, then run avg races in the Derby preps. THEN BOOM another D wayne bomb in a big race.

That's crazy talk.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Id take a flyer on Optimizer at 175/1. Wasnt great but wasnt horrible. Hopefully D Wayne will put him on the trail, win a race as a 3 yr old, then run avg races in the Derby preps. THEN BOOM another D wayne bomb in a big race.

Haha. Wow. I'd give you 175,000-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Haha. Wow. I'd give you 175,000-1.

I wouldn't even take that.

[pweizer]

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

2-year-old champions from '71 to '78

'71: Riva Ridge (won Ky Derby following year)

'72: Secretariat (won Ky Derby following year)

'73: Protagonist (did not race at age 3)

'74: Foolish Pleasure (won Ky Derby following year)

'75: Honest Pleasure (2nd by 1 length at 2-to-5 odds in Ky Derby)

'76: Seattle Slew (won Ky Derby following year)

'77: Affirmed (won KY Derby following year)

'78: Spectacular Bid (won Ky Derby following year)


Over this 8-year stretch ... the 2yo champion made 7 starts in the Kentucky Derby with a record of six wins and one second place finish.

The two non-2yo champions who won the Derby -- were Cannonade and Bold Forbes. Cannonade was a multiple Graded Stakes winner at age 2. Bold Forbes was a champion 2yo in Puerto Rico -- he also won the Saratoga Special at age 2 and Len Ragozin called him one of the fastest 2yo's ever in his book 'The Odds Must Be Crazy'

Those days are probably gone forever. Anyone who tried to make sense of the abortion that was the 3yo crop leading into the Derby through the prep season this year was basically made to look like a monkey.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

i've reported you to the f.b.i.

sincerely,

repent.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

What do you like about this horse? Street Sense CD????

His dirt races have been decidedly better than his synthetic races, he's in the hands of a trainer who never has success with 2YOs, he is a winner over the track and we're talking about 125-1 not 10-1.