2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[Seattleallstar]

Id take a flyer on Optimizer at 175/1. Wasnt great but wasnt horrible. Hopefully D Wayne will put him on the trail, win a race as a 3 yr old, then run avg races in the Derby preps. THEN BOOM another D wayne bomb in a big race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Id take a flyer on Optimizer at 175/1. Wasnt great but wasnt horrible. Hopefully D Wayne will put him on the trail, win a race as a 3 yr old, then run avg races in the Derby preps. THEN BOOM another D wayne bomb in a big race.

That's crazy talk.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Id take a flyer on Optimizer at 175/1. Wasnt great but wasnt horrible. Hopefully D Wayne will put him on the trail, win a race as a 3 yr old, then run avg races in the Derby preps. THEN BOOM another D wayne bomb in a big race.

Haha. Wow. I'd give you 175,000-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Haha. Wow. I'd give you 175,000-1.

I wouldn't even take that.

[pweizer]

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pweizer

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

Right - I probably wouldn't take a horse at less than 200-1 at this point. There's value on the unexposed types.

[Calzone Lord]

2-year-old champions from '71 to '78

'71: Riva Ridge (won Ky Derby following year)

'72: Secretariat (won Ky Derby following year)

'73: Protagonist (did not race at age 3)

'74: Foolish Pleasure (won Ky Derby following year)

'75: Honest Pleasure (2nd by 1 length at 2-to-5 odds in Ky Derby)

'76: Seattle Slew (won Ky Derby following year)

'77: Affirmed (won KY Derby following year)

'78: Spectacular Bid (won Ky Derby following year)


Over this 8-year stretch ... the 2yo champion made 7 starts in the Kentucky Derby with a record of six wins and one second place finish.

The two non-2yo champions who won the Derby -- were Cannonade and Bold Forbes. Cannonade was a multiple Graded Stakes winner at age 2. Bold Forbes was a champion 2yo in Puerto Rico -- he also won the Saratoga Special at age 2 and Len Ragozin called him one of the fastest 2yo's ever in his book 'The Odds Must Be Crazy'

Those days are probably gone forever. Anyone who tried to make sense of the abortion that was the 3yo crop leading into the Derby through the prep season this year was basically made to look like a monkey.

[parsixfarms]

An under the radar horse that I'll want to follow is Arborville. Good-looking and expensive 2YO ($200K is a huge price for a Forest Grove) purchase by Cella broke maiden first out at Laurel at end of September, but has not worked since. Cella bought yearling half-sister by Southern Image at Timonium sale for $70K about 10 days later, suggesting they like the brother. Will presumably be on the Arkansas path to Louisville, if he pans out.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

'73: Protagonist (did not race at age 3)

Not that it changes anything, but Protagonist did run at 3. In fact he was in the prep race won by Cannonade right before the Derby.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

i've reported you to the f.b.i.

sincerely,

repent.