2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pweizer

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

Right - I probably wouldn't take a horse at less than 200-1 at this point. There's value on the unexposed types.

[Indian Charlie]

Oh, I don't know. I got Congaree around 150/1, in like January. Yeah, he didn't win, but I feel that that was a pretty smart bet.

[lemoncrush]

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

[Rudeboyelvis]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/fw/bris_library/Index

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

He is slow, really slow. I would not take 500-1 on him.

[philcski]

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

[Gaelic Storm]

I would take a stab with Stirred Up for Baffert, he hasn't worked since the end of August. Zito has Saint Honore.

[Calzone Lord]

2-year-old champions from '71 to '78

'71: Riva Ridge (won Ky Derby following year)

'72: Secretariat (won Ky Derby following year)

'73: Protagonist (did not race at age 3)

'74: Foolish Pleasure (won Ky Derby following year)

'75: Honest Pleasure (2nd by 1 length at 2-to-5 odds in Ky Derby)

'76: Seattle Slew (won Ky Derby following year)

'77: Affirmed (won KY Derby following year)

'78: Spectacular Bid (won Ky Derby following year)


Over this 8-year stretch ... the 2yo champion made 7 starts in the Kentucky Derby with a record of six wins and one second place finish.

The two non-2yo champions who won the Derby -- were Cannonade and Bold Forbes. Cannonade was a multiple Graded Stakes winner at age 2. Bold Forbes was a champion 2yo in Puerto Rico -- he also won the Saratoga Special at age 2 and Len Ragozin called him one of the fastest 2yo's ever in his book 'The Odds Must Be Crazy'

Those days are probably gone forever. Anyone who tried to make sense of the abortion that was the 3yo crop leading into the Derby through the prep season this year was basically made to look like a monkey.

[parsixfarms]

An under the radar horse that I'll want to follow is Arborville. Good-looking and expensive 2YO ($200K is a huge price for a Forest Grove) purchase by Cella broke maiden first out at Laurel at end of September, but has not worked since. Cella bought yearling half-sister by Southern Image at Timonium sale for $70K about 10 days later, suggesting they like the brother. Will presumably be on the Arkansas path to Louisville, if he pans out.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

'73: Protagonist (did not race at age 3)

Not that it changes anything, but Protagonist did run at 3. In fact he was in the prep race won by Cannonade right before the Derby.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not that it changes anything, but Protagonist did run at 3. In fact he was in the prep race won by Cannonade right before the Derby.

Should have cracked my Champions book instead of relying upon memory.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Should have cracked my Champions book instead of relying upon memory.

That's what I did. I have two editions of that book. I see there's a new third edition of the book coming out. It's BS. The DRF should send you either supplements if you own older copies or should publish less expensive addenda to the original.

The funny part is that the tagline in the advertisement for the new one is "From Ack Ack to Zenyatta". Turn that phrase around and you have most people's reaction to getting force-fed the latest "happenings" with the great mare.

[tector]

I have the first edition, skipped the second. I'll probably go for the third, which is out now, apparently. Wonder how long it will be before it shows up on Amazon.