2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pweizer

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

Right - I probably wouldn't take a horse at less than 200-1 at this point. There's value on the unexposed types.

[Indian Charlie]

Oh, I don't know. I got Congaree around 150/1, in like January. Yeah, he didn't win, but I feel that that was a pretty smart bet.

[lemoncrush]

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

[Rudeboyelvis]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/fw/bris_library/Index

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

He is slow, really slow. I would not take 500-1 on him.

[philcski]

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by philcski

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

[Gaelic Storm]

I would take a stab with Stirred Up for Baffert, he hasn't worked since the end of August. Zito has Saint Honore.