GP P6 carryover

philcski · #1 04-02-2013, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.

I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.

after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.

I'd feel alot better about the $260k for the 2 if it was someone other than Bear Stables. He throws away money like Klaravich on underbred horses that run fast furlongs at under tack shows like it's going out of style. This one went 21 2/5 which was tied for 50th best out of 250 (on synthetic of course)... decent but not great. Certainly has a chance though.

I like your thoughts on Herd Mentality (speaking of Klaravich at 2yo sales), very live at 10 or 12/1. No times available at the FTM sale though.

ateamstupid · #2 04-02-2013, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd feel alot better about the $260k for the 2 if it was someone other than Bear Stables. He throws away money like Klaravich on underbred horses that run fast furlongs at under tack shows like it's going out of style. This one went 21 2/5 which was tied for 50th best out of 250 (on synthetic of course)... decent but not great. Certainly has a chance though.

I like your thoughts on Herd Mentality (speaking of Klaravich at 2yo sales), very live at 10 or 12/1. No times available at the FTM sale though.

Herd Mentality is the only firster other than Pletcher's that I'm seriously considering. One Brave Warrior looks to be pretty fit but I generally don't like Proctor in this kind of spot.

JJP · #3 04-02-2013, 10:27 PM

Fogonazo broke about 2 slow in that last. Think he will be right on/near the pace with a solid break. I would be against McLaughlin's first timer; his horses always seem to run much better in their 2nd start. The sleeper may be Bob and the Gang, who led two tough horses for 4 furlongs back on March 9. Pletcher's runner can't be dismissed.

ateamstupid · #4 04-04-2013, 04:48 PM

$1,961,806.16 the official C/O into closing day.

alysheba4 · #5 04-04-2013, 05:16 PM

its going to be huge tomorrow.

ADJMK · #6 04-04-2013, 05:19 PM

Great, a sloppy mess and probably lots of scratches to come. No need to stay up all night capping now.

declansharbor · #7 04-04-2013, 08:27 PM

Anyone else think Running Wildcat might relish the 7 furlong distance tomorrow in the 10th? ESP if the track is muddy.

I like the Vitali in the 12th too. My top choice in that one is the horse to his inside, Forever Conga. 10,2,11,3,9 in there. I'll probably end up only going 3 deep.

lemoncrush · #8 04-02-2013, 10:31 PM

Race 11
In Fogonazo's debut, he did break slow,made a nice middle move and stayed in the race although nobody was passing anyone. My worry about him is the 2 months since his last race and the erratic work pattern since. I'm using him, but need to include Siliver Lining John and Herd Mentality too.

I think I'll stand against the Proctor horse, and the Kirian horse looks like he'll need one. The Parboo horse (11) worries me, as does Bob and the Gang, who showed speed and faded in his debut on the inside going 7F. Cuts back, bullet work, jock upgrade.....some things to consider.

parsixfarms · #9 04-03-2013, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd like your thoughts on Herd Mentality (speaking of Klaravich at 2yo sales), very live at 10 or 12/1. No times available at the FTM sale though.

Herd Mentality worked an eighth at the sale in 10.1 and was pretty impressive. Big price for a son of Dance With Ravens, even if his half-brother Romancing the Gold was somewhat "hot" at the time. I'd have to think the horse could be live.

fantini33 · #10 04-03-2013, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Herd Mentality worked an eighth at the sale in 10.1 and was pretty impressive. Big price for a son of Dance With Ravens, even if his half-brother Romancing the Gold was somewhat "hot" at the time. I'd have to think the horse could be live.

Klaravich 1st time starters are typically very very live when sprinting.....and it seems the ones they give to Pompay even more so. I will be narrow in this race for sure. I will probably be 5 7 and allow myself big coverage elsewhere. Need strong opinions in this sequence and this will be one of mine.

JJP · #11 04-03-2013, 12:13 PM

The worst race in the sequence, IMO, is the $6250 claimer. There's a few no-chancers, and maybe 4 or even 5 that could possibly win, but I don't see any of them being 10-1 or higher.

lemoncrush · #12 04-03-2013, 12:25 PM

I'm still wrestling with the 12th.
I keep ending up on Film Making, but he's such a hanger and that
1 for 19 record is just staring me in the face. There looks to be a few who need the lead, so a decent pace seems assured and I don't envision someone stealing it on the front end. The 10 Forever Conga is my second choice right now but after that, I'm just not sure.

tector · #13 04-04-2013, 11:39 AM

The weather forecast is looking grim for today:

http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/Tornado...201465351.html

pointman · #14 04-04-2013, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm still wrestling with the 12th.
I keep ending up on Film Making, but he's such a hanger and that
1 for 19 record is just staring me in the face. There looks to be a few who need the lead, so a decent pace seems assured and I don't envision someone stealing it on the front end. The 10 Forever Conga is my second choice right now but after that, I'm just not sure.

I can't trust Film Making, he really is a hanger's hanger. I think that Diez may be live for Wolfson off the troubled trip last out and an upgrade to Castellano. If he can break decently and get a mid pack trip saving ground from the 2 hole, there should be plenty of speed here to close into. Other then that, I am having a hard time making a case for anyone in this field.

robfla · #15 04-04-2013, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

I can't trust Film Making, he really is a hanger's hanger. I think that Diez may be live for Wolfson off the troubled trip last out and an upgrade to Castellano. If he can break decently and get a mid pack trip saving ground from the 2 hole, there should be plenty of speed here to close into. Other then that, I am having a hard time making a case for anyone in this field.

I'm wondering if the race will stay on the turf. Good chance of heavy afternoon rain.

Quote:

Overcast with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 79F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph shifting to the WNW in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80%