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#1
03-26-2013, 05:53 AM
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Last edited by jms62 : 03-26-2013 at 06:05 AM. 
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#2
03-26-2013, 10:27 AM
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I'm eager to see what the p6 pays on Wednesday, as it is easily the worst sequence of races that I've seen since playing the wager. A total pass.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#4
03-26-2013, 11:31 AM
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The first race of the sequence is key to this thing being hit, imo. On the day the jackpot was scooped, the guy hit the all button in the first 3 races and was lucky enough to catch the 50-1 in leg 1. It's big to catch a price in that leg because that's the leg that everybody gets to see how the horses are being bet. (Example...on Saturday, Rosario, on the 7, won the first leg on a horse that was bet down to 3-1 from a 20-1 morning line. The horse DNF in his only attempt prior. I think that if the race was the 2nd one of the sequence and people were not given the chance to see how much the horse was being bet, that a portion of the people who included the horse would have omitted from the ticket altogether. Instead, 440k+ tickets were still alive after first leg and that number quickly became 21k once the 25-1 romped in the second leg) I personally love throwing a $200-$300 ticket at this thing twice a week when I feel the favorites are vulnerable. Chopping Twilight Eclipse off the ticket at the last moment STILL stings when I think about it. He scared the life out of me once I saw him in the post parade and he certainly exploded in the stretch. Was hoping he ran off a little TOO much in the post parade as JJ was trying to stranglehold him, but I guess he was just THAT fit.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#5
03-26-2013, 02:29 PM
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It will obviously be a VERY advantageous betting situation on closing day if a seven-figure carryover is forced out on a dime increment bet.
I'm sure they're going to put the six biggest fields they can in the sequence. Hopefully there is at least one very solid stand-out big favorite in there. I'd rather try and take a shot and hit the thing five or six different times for a dime, than spread way out in each race with a very expensive ticket and make merely a good profit that way if I can hit it doing that.
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#6
03-26-2013, 03:06 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
03-26-2013, 03:16 PM
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Why even bother with it until closing day?
You either need to play an extremely large ticket and get extremely fortunate, or you are making a disadvantageous long-term bet. It's sucker bait until closing day.
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#8
03-27-2013, 01:23 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
03-27-2013, 04:35 PM
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I must be a sucker then. Would't be the first time and certainly isn't my last time. I personally find the wager to be a fun alternative to playing vertically race after race.
All I know is that I could throw up a $300 ticket on all remaining racing days (not that i would) and $1000 on mandatory payout day, have them all burn up in flames, and STILL walk away profitable from that specific wager. I was fortunate enough to hit the wager 4 times (twice alone on cheaper tickets, twice in a 'syndicate'  ).Caveman-esque? Surely. You'll never hear me say otherwise. Lots of fun to track while on the clock though, perhaps that's why I was suckered in.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#11
03-28-2013, 06:19 PM
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Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand? Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#12
03-28-2013, 06:32 PM
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Who, of sane mind, would ever make a parlay on six-straight races on a card? Phil, of course one 52% bite is better than six separate bites of 16%. However, neither option is even remotely attractive...EVER. I get your point, there is a lot of people sending in foolish and excessive coverage ... that still is merely lipstick on a pig. How do the 50-cent pick 5's perform versus the parlay? Obviously MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better ... and it's over one-less race.
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#13
03-28-2013, 06:42 PM
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i'm not against this bet in any manner. it doesn't appear to have cannibalized handle elsewhere. if people want to have fun with it, i'm all for that. but whatever favorable return you think you see now, how much greater is it going to be when instead of holding out 40%, you're getting all that held back money added in? for me, anticipating the last day is a lot more fun than tossing money at it now.
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#14
03-28-2013, 06:58 PM
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And those are brutally difficult sequence of races they use. The Pick 5's at Santa Anita, for instance, are the opening five races and offer a lot of smaller fields and sometimes non-competitive races. Look at the last completed card at SA for instance, March 24th. Race #1: 4 horse field, winner is 6/5 Race #2: 8 horse field, winner is 5/1 Race #3: 4 horse field, winner is 9/5 Race #4: 6 horse field, winner is 9/5 Race #5: 10 horse field, winner is 11/1 The pick 5 pays $6,331.80 for $2 ... or $1,582.95 for fifty cents. Instead of five very shabby races... Gulfstream gives you mostly tough races with larger fields and invites people to stupidly spread.
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#15
03-29-2013, 01:08 PM
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Successfully parlaying 6 races is extremely rare with large fields and so many un-raced horses. Too many variables in the sequence for a player to be successful without spending much less then $300.00 in my opinion. Can someone hit it for a dime –yes but you have better odds hitting the lottery. Unless your handicapping shows that you are successful 90% of the time of including the winner using three horses or more in each race then you are playing a losing game imo. Players that are investing $50 to $200.00 per ticket are fooling themselves and have almost no chance of hitting 6 of 6 let alone the big prize. As long as the vast majorities play this wager for fun and small dollars I think it’s possible to make money on this wager. The argument Doug puts forth is there are much better ways to win at the races.
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#16
03-27-2013, 01:03 PM
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Hybrid Mode
