GP P6 carryover

[hi_im_god]

has anyone looked at friday's card yet? it's ugly.

6 full fields with 5 of them having ae's. 4 maiden races.

i don't see a race in there where you could single a horse with confidence. pletcher's horse in the first leg maybe?

i was looking forward to betting this but as i look at the actual fields i think i'll probably limit myself to a smaller ticket versus betting at it seriously. that's a really tough sequence.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

has anyone looked at friday's card yet? it's ugly.

6 full fields with 5 of them having ae's. 4 maiden races.

i don't see a race in there where you could single a horse with confidence. pletcher's horse in the first leg maybe?

i was looking forward to betting this but as i look at the actual fields i think i'll probably limit myself to a smaller ticket versus betting at it seriously. that's a really tough sequence.

Super tough sequence.

I'm actually against the Pletcher off the long layoff, although I'd be an idiot to leave him off the ticket.

Every race is a headscratcher in and of itself.

[ateamstupid]

IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board. Fogozano ran well against a tough field in his debut, so unless Pletcher's horse in the 11th is a rocketship, he could be a realistic single. I also think Nora's Song is clearly the horse to beat in the 13th and the 9th has a small group of logicals. I actually think the toughest race is the $6,250 claimer in the 10th. Plenty of horses with back races that fit and a murky pace scenario.

[lemoncrush]

I looked it over for an hour last night. If it wasn't a 10 cent minimum with a monster pot, I wouldn't even think of tackling it. But, ill throw $40 at it and take my chances. Right now, Third Martini in the 9th and Nora's Song in the 13th are my possible singles.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I looked it over for an hour last night. If it wasn't a 10 cent minimum with a monster pot, I wouldn't even think of tackling it. But, ill throw $40 at it and take my chances. Right now, Third Martini in the 9th and Nora's Song in the 13th are my possible singles.

Those were my two strongest opinions as well, along with the mentioned Fogonazo. I'll probably structure the ticket such that I have to get one or the other home to have a realistic chance. Right now my ticket is $565.60 before scratches (which includes AE's that won't draw in) if I bet some multiples on my stronger tickets. $417.20 if I single bet every ticket. Since I'm more than likely going to have a group with around a grand total I'll be adding rather than subtracting. It's a very daunting sequence.

As for race 10- before seeing the Thorographs I have it as 5,10 A's 4,12 B's 3,7 C's. I think the 1 is done at this level with this trainer, the 2 hasn't run a winning race at this level since last May, the 6 is an easy toss, 8 isn't impossible and may add him back in but significant step up in class, the 9 is an easy toss, and the 11 is consistent but not good enough to win.

The hardest leg for me is the first. The only two I feel confident tossing are the 1 and 13. The 1 draws the rail for its debut, works are ok but nothing special, terrible first out trainer, and they only paid $2k at a mixed sale when it had been working already for the previous owner. The 13, by a sire I've never even heard of, debuts for a trainer that hasn't won a race like, ever and a jockey that has 8 wins in 2 years against a bunch of monsters. Would be the ultimate putover. Any of the rest can win. I have it as 2,3,6,10 A's 4,5,8,11 B's 7,9,12 C's, and that is not even confident.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by philcski

Those were my two strongest opinions as well, along with the mentioned Fogonazo. I'll probably structure the ticket such that I have to get one or the other home to have a realistic chance. Right now my ticket is $565.60 before scratches (which includes AE's that won't draw in) if I bet some multiples on my stronger tickets. $417.20 if I single bet every ticket. Since I'm more than likely going to have a group with around a grand total I'll be adding rather than subtracting. It's a very daunting sequence.

As for race 10- before seeing the Thorographs I have it as 5,10 A's 4,12 B's 3,7 C's. I think the 1 is done at this level with this trainer, the 2 hasn't run a winning race at this level since last May, the 6 is an easy toss, 8 isn't impossible and may add him back in but significant step up in class, the 9 is an easy toss, and the 11 is consistent but not good enough to win.

The hardest leg for me is the first. The only two I feel confident tossing are the 1 and 13. The 1 draws the rail for its debut, works are ok but nothing special, terrible first out trainer, and they only paid $2k at a mixed sale when it had been working already for the previous owner. The 13, by a sire I've never even heard of, debuts for a trainer that hasn't won a race like, ever and a jockey that has 8 wins in 2 years against a bunch of monsters. Would be the ultimate putover. Any of the rest can win. I have it as 2,3,6,10 A's 4,5,8,11 B's 7,9,12 C's, and that is not even confident.

Band Is Passing was a multiple stakes winner at Calder.

Just hit the all button or single Pletcher's horse for me. Tough sequence.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Band Is Passing was a multiple stakes winner at Calder.

Just hit the all button or single Pletcher's horse for me. Tough sequence.

Never heard of him. You're right about where he ran- he swept the CRC turf series back in the early 2000's. Only 9 runners to race.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board.

I'm interested in seeing what the Darley filly is on the board, being a half to Royal Delta she's going to take some $.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board. Fogozano ran well against a tough field in his debut, so unless Pletcher's horse in the 11th is a rocketship, he could be a realistic single. I also think Nora's Song is clearly the horse to beat in the 13th and the 9th has a small group of logicals. I actually think the toughest race is the $6,250 claimer in the 10th. Plenty of horses with back races that fit and a murky pace scenario.

The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.

I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.

after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.

[santana]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.

I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.

after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.

If JV hangs around to ride Fogozano...i would probably single him...instead of going to keenland...tough rack of races, but when playing for a dime...thats alot of fun....

[santana]

Originally Posted by santana

If JV hangs around to ride Fogozano...i would probably single him...instead of going to keenland...tough rack of races, but when playing for a dime...thats alot of fun....

As of right now, i have a 150.00 ticket.....using just 3-11 in race 9...just a reach.

[Bogey]

Interesting to see Castellano sticking around for closing day and not at KEE on FRI.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by santana

If JV hangs around to ride Fogozano...i would probably single him...instead of going to keenland...tough rack of races, but when playing for a dime...thats alot of fun....

JV will be at Keeneland.

[RockHardTen1985]

The 11th feels like 3,6 to me. Why would anyone want any horse who ran already in this race?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why would anyone want any horse who ran already in this race?

You prefer just guessing on if a firster can run? Seems like a solid way to attack a pick 6.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You prefer just guessing on if a firster can run? Seems like a solid way to attack a pick 6.

A chance to discuss races without insulting me? Cool. First off, I won't play that pick 6. I might play some Keeneland Friday and wait for Aqu Saturday. If I were playing I would roll with 3,6. I don't like anything that's run. We know Pletcher is deadly first out, and KMC can hit. Both horses are well bred, especially the 6. It's not the strongest opinion, but it's how I would play the race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The 11th feels like 3,6 to me. Why would anyone want any horse who ran already in this race?

Why would anyone want a firster against a horse that already ran a winning race? Did you watch it? He missed the break and lost 2 lengths and stayed on nicely against a tough field. Four have come back and three ran well, the other was the 6th place horse beaten 40 lengths. Velazquez jumps on when he had two other great options (3,10). Lochte looks like a horse to me that takes a bunch of money and finishes an indifferent 5th. Obviously I'm not betting against Pletcher in his playground hard with the 3 though.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by philcski

Why would anyone want a firster against a horse that already ran a winning race? Did you watch it? He missed the break and lost 2 lengths and stayed on nicely against a tough field. Four have come back and three ran well, the other was the 6th place horse beaten 40 lengths. Velazquez jumps on when he had two other great options (3,10). Lochte looks like a horse to me that takes a bunch of money and finishes an indifferent 5th. Obviously I'm not betting against Pletcher in his playground hard with the 3 though.

JV won't be there Phil.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.

I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.

after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.

I'd feel alot better about the $260k for the 2 if it was someone other than Bear Stables. He throws away money like Klaravich on underbred horses that run fast furlongs at under tack shows like it's going out of style. This one went 21 2/5 which was tied for 50th best out of 250 (on synthetic of course)... decent but not great. Certainly has a chance though.

I like your thoughts on Herd Mentality (speaking of Klaravich at 2yo sales), very live at 10 or 12/1. No times available at the FTM sale though.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd feel alot better about the $260k for the 2 if it was someone other than Bear Stables. He throws away money like Klaravich on underbred horses that run fast furlongs at under tack shows like it's going out of style. This one went 21 2/5 which was tied for 50th best out of 250 (on synthetic of course)... decent but not great. Certainly has a chance though.

I like your thoughts on Herd Mentality (speaking of Klaravich at 2yo sales), very live at 10 or 12/1. No times available at the FTM sale though.

Herd Mentality is the only firster other than Pletcher's that I'm seriously considering. One Brave Warrior looks to be pretty fit but I generally don't like Proctor in this kind of spot.