Privman: Let the Horse of the Year Debate Begin

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I hate the idea of these soft, selective, extra well spaced campaigns as much as the next guy, but I think we are going to have to get used to it.

Many trainers believe that spacing maximizes the chances of keeping a horse fresh for a full year and that really fast and tough races wear a horse down. Since the BC is now such a huge target, that gives them ample motivation to look for easy spots, to skip races, and to avoid tough ones. They also have opportunity to do so because there are many stakes around the country to look for those easier spots.

Obviously - you're 100% right.

However, that doesn't mean the voters for the year end awards need to reward horses who are campaigned in this fashion solely because of how they performed in the Classic.

Go back to Awesome Again's perfect season in 1998 where he beat the toughest field ever assembled in BC Classic history and failed to win Horse of the Year - he was campaigned similarly to Blame.



He had the entrie winter off - came back against complete dogs in an easy race - stepped it up in solid editions of the Foster and Whitney for his next two. He won with the comment "hand ride" in every race that year but the Foster and BC Classic.

Even though it was the best field of horses ever assembled for a BC Classic - a lot of those big horses had very tough seasons and ran like they were over-the-top in that race.

Gentlemen put in a race similar to Life At Ten's performance Saturday. Skip Away struggled mightily. Silver Charm ran three times in the Strub Series, shipped to Dubai and won the World Cup - and made something like 3 or 4 different cross-country ships for races that year after he came back from Dubai. You don't see many horses do what Victory Gallop did anymore as far as running in all three triple crown races, the Haskell, the Travers, and BC Classic as a 3yo. Coronado's Quest made his 10th of 11 starts that season in the BC Classic. Running Stag was a machine, he ran in France, Germany, England, Dubai, Hong Kong, and America.

Blame's own sire Arch was in that race - he only managed to beat a single horse... the DNF Gentlemen.

I realize that HOY voters don't have other optins like they had in 1998 - but Blame is no Awesome Again either. Awesome Again was an extremely handy and tactical horse. When Tale of the Cat stole a 25 flat first quarter on the lead in the Whitney - Day just let him out a little and he shot right past ToftheC like nothing and outsprinted him down the backstretch. When the pace was strong in the Classic - he could take back and finsh strong.

[Dahoss]

What are the options though DrugS? And don't give me Uncle Mo, because that is ridiculous. If it isn't Blame because in your opinion his campaign was lame, then it can't be Zenyatta either. So who is it? Blind Luck? Proviso? Who else could even be considered?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What are the options though DrugS? And don't give me Uncle Mo, because that is ridiculous. If it isn't Blame because in your opinion his campaign was lame, then it can't be Zenyatta either. So who is it? Blind Luck? Proviso? Who else could even be considered?

Like I said, I would waste a vote on Uncle Mo as a protest vote.

I certainly believe he's a better 2-year-old than Favorite Trick in 1997 - and I believe Blame would have got absolutely murdered by the older horses in 1997 (Skip Away, Formal Gold, Gentlemen, Will's Way) ... and yet in '97 the older males beat each other often enough to split HOY votes among them while Favorite Trick dominated the tard vote and took HOY.

So, there is enough precedence with that angle. If Uncle Mo didn't run so sensationally - Goldikova.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Like I said, I would waste a vote on Uncle Mo as a protest vote.

I certainly believe he's a better 2-year-old than Favorite Trick in 1997 - and I believe Blame would have got absolutely murdered by the older horses in 1997 (Skip Away, Formal Gold, Gentlemen, Will's Way) ... and yet in '97 the older males beat each other often enough to split HOY votes among them while Favorite Trick dominated the tard vote and took HOY.

So, there is enough precedence with that angle. If Uncle Mo didn't run so sensationally - Goldikova.

And you think giving Uncle Mo HOY is going to deter campaigns like we have seen this year? I don't.

Pletcher already said he only wants to give Uncle Mo two preps next year before the Derby. This is the game now, for better or worse. I don't know how to change it, but not giving the most deserving horse an award he deserves isn't the way.

[miraja2]

To me the only serious alternative to Blame should be Blind Luck. I realize she has zero chance to actually win, but if a person wanted to lodge a "protest vote" against the campaigns of Blame and Zenyatta, I think she would make the most sense.

On the board in 8 G1 or G2s.
In the exacta in 7 of those.
Won 5 of those races including two "big ones" in the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama.

She had a campaign that we want all good horses to have, and she performed extremely well. Voting for her would make sense if a person wants to send a message that HOY (and racing more generally) isn't all about one day/race or about nursing along a perfect record running against mules.

The other question about voting for her concerns the La Brea Stakes. If she runs there and wins in December, adding another G1 to her already stellar season, I think a case could be made that she is worthy of a 1st place vote.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

To me the only serious alternative to Blame should be Blind Luck. I realize she has zero chance to actually win, but if a person wanted to lodge a "protest vote" against the campaigns of Blame and Zenyatta, I think she would make the most sense.

On the board in 8 G1 or G2s.
In the exacta in 7 of those.
Won 5 of those races including two "big ones" in the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama.

She had a campaign that we want all good horses to have, and she performed extremely well. Voting for her would make sense if a person wants to send a message that HOY (and racing more generally) isn't all about one day/race or about nursing along a perfect record running against mules.

The other question about voting for her concerns the La Brea Stakes. If she runs there and wins in December, adding another G1 to here already stellar season, I think a case could be made that she is worthy of a 1st place vote.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by miraja2

To me the only serious alternative to Blame should be Blind Luck. I realize she has zero chance to actually win, but if a person wanted to lodge a "protest vote" against the campaigns of Blame and Zenyatta, I think she would make the most sense.

On the board in 8 G1 or G2s.
In the exacta in 7 of those.
Won 5 of those races including two "big ones" in the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama.

She had a campaign that we want all good horses to have, and she performed extremely well. Voting for her would make sense if a person wants to send a message that HOY (and racing more generally) isn't all about one day/race or about nursing along a perfect record running against mules.

The other question about voting for her concerns the La Brea Stakes. If she runs there and wins in December, adding another G1 to her already stellar season, I think a case could be made that she is worthy of a 1st place vote.

Blind Luck is a cool horse, her story is also admirable.
Anyone saying HOY for her, is out of there mind. She deserves HOY a lot less then Zenyatta and about as much as Quality Road does.
Whats her excuse for not winning the biggest race of the year for her? Why never elders till then? Why not face males? UB was a horse for course, but Blind Lucks biggest win came over Churchill...Come on man, with Blind Luck being anything more then a cool horse, and 3yr old filly champ.
One last thing... Since Zenyatta was such a fraud beating TOMATOE CANS ALL YEAR, Why did Blind Luck not step up in any of those Grade 1's and defeat her elders? According to most people, Zenyatta beat nothing. Blind Luck could have stayed in her own backyard, faced elders in Grade 1 company and took down the Big Momma.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

She deserves HOY a lot less then Zenyatta and about as much as Quality Road does.

Blind Luck was in the exacta in seven G1 or G2 races this year. Did the other two you mention do that? No. To me, that means a lot. She ran in a lot of big races, all over the country, and ran well every time. To me that means a lot when you are talking about HOY.
Sure she didn't win the Distaff, but for me it isn't ALL about the BC. Her body of work over the course of the year completely dwarfs the pathetic campaigns of QR and Zenyatta.

If I had a vote, I'd probably vote for Blame even though I really don't like the overemphasis on the Breeders' Cup. But Blind Luck would be my second choice, and if she wins another G1 this year, it would be a little more difficult for me to choose between the two.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't know how to change it, but not giving the most deserving horse an award he deserves isn't the way.

Let me ask you this - how much of a curve do you grade on when grading a mare against an older male?

I think if you're ultimately grading these horses on accomplishments, quality of performance and difficulty of campaign... Blame will have a slight but very clear edge over Zenyatta. You're grading an older male against a mare though .. so it really boils down to what kind of a curve you're grading on - or if you're applying the curve in your grading at all.

No one was louder than I was about how soft Zenyatta's campaign has been - and how soft her Grade 1 wins have been - but she is a mare. I think that fact is getting lost on a few of the smarter people around here. Just as the fact that Rachel Alexandra was a 3-year-old filly last year .. and Zenyatta was a mare .. seemed to get lost on a lot of people last year.

The fact that RA was a 3yo filly - actually should have made her a unanimous winner - taking every single vote in 2009 IMO.

If you're not going to apply a curve - a 2-year-old will never win this award. A 3-year-old filly will almost never win this award. And a mare will almost never win this award.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me ask you this - how much a curve do you grade on when grading a mare against an older male?

I think if you're ultimately grading these horses on accomplishments, quality of performance and difficulty of campaign... Blame will have a slight but very clear edge over Zenyatta. You're grading an older male against a mare though .. so it really boils down to what kind of a curve you're grading on - or if you're applying the curve in your grading at all.

No one was louder than I was about how soft Zenyatta's campaign has been - and how soft her Grade 1 wins have been - but she is a mare. I think that fact is getting lost on a few of the smarter people around here. Just as the fact that Rachel Alexandra was a 3-year-old filly last year .. and Zenyatta was a mare .. seemed to get lost on a lot of people last year.

The fact that RA was a 3yo filly - actually should have made her a unanimous winner - taking every single vote in 2009 IMO.

If you're not going to apply a curve - a 2-year-old will never win this award. A 3-year-old filly will almost never win this award. And a mare will almost never win this award.

Are you talking about when I handicap, or for this discussion?

As we have seen in recent years, I don't think the gap is big at all, if it even exists between some of the better males and females in this country. I get what you are saying about her being a mare. But she's a pretty good mare and definitely good enough to be facing boys because she was that much better than those she faced out west. This is commonplace in Europe and really no reason it can't be here.

My understanding of HOY is horse that had the best year. I factor in what races they won, who they beat and how that compared to other horses. Had Zenyatta run in one other race against males this year, I think she would be a pretty solid favorite for HOY, even with the narrow defeat in the BC. But, her connections rolled the dice and she didn't win the race. She ran really well, but just fell short. That compared with the fact Blame beat her and had a pretty decent (by todays standards) year of his own means IMO he should win and win convincingly.

[Scav]

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

[RockHardTen1985]

I did it. I am computer savvy. My touch was recently bricked. I manually fixed it, jailbroke it and downloaded/downgraded iTunes from 4.1 to 3.0. Genius Status.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

As we have seen in recent years, I don't think the gap is big at all, if it even exists between some of the better males and females in this country.

Historically speaking - it's pretty damn wide. I will agree though - the last four years or so have featured some awfully weak crops of 3yo males and older males.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

My understanding of HOY is horse that had the best year. I factor in what races they won, who they beat and how that compared to other horses. Had Zenyatta run in one other race against males this year, I think she would be a pretty solid favorite for HOY, even with the narrow defeat in the BC. But, her connections rolled the dice and she didn't win the race. She ran really well, but just fell short. That compared with the fact Blame beat her and had a pretty decent (by todays standards) year of his own means IMO he should win and win convincingly.

I hear you.

There have been a lot of times when the best 2-year-old in the country wouldn't be good enough to defeat anyone of several hundred horses aged 3 and up.

There have been times when the best 3-year-old filly wasn't among the 60 or maybe even 100 best horses in the entire country age 3 and up.

There have been times when the best mare isn't among the 25 or 30 best horses in the country.

It's mind-boggling how bad the 3yo male and older male division is in relation to the leaders in the other divisions.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obviously - you're 100% right.

However, that doesn't mean the voters for the year end awards need to reward horses who are campaigned in this fashion solely because of how they performed in the Classic.

Go back to Awesome Again's perfect season in 1998 where he beat the toughest field ever assembled in BC Classic history and failed to win Horse of the Year - he was campaigned similarly to Blame.



He had the entrie winter off - came back against complete dogs in an easy race - stepped it up in solid editions of the Foster and Whitney for his next two. He won with the comment "hand ride" in every race that year but the Foster and BC Classic.

Even though it was the best field of horses ever assembled for a BC Classic - a lot of those big horses had very tough seasons and ran like they were over-the-top in that race.

Gentlemen put in a race similar to Life At Ten's performance Saturday. Skip Away struggled mightily. Silver Charm ran three times in the Strub Series, shipped to Dubai and won the World Cup - and made something like 3 or 4 different cross-country ships for races that year after he came back from Dubai. You don't see many horses do what Victory Gallop did anymore as far as running in all three triple crown races, the Haskell, the Travers, and BC Classic as a 3yo. Coronado's Quest made his 10th of 11 starts that season in the BC Classic. Running Stag was a machine, he ran in France, Germany, England, Dubai, Hong Kong, and America.

Blame's own sire Arch was in that race - he only managed to beat a single horse... the DNF Gentlemen.

I realize that HOY voters don't have other optins like they had in 1998 - but Blame is no Awesome Again either. Awesome Again was an extremely handy and tactical horse. When Tale of the Cat stole a 25 flat first quarter on the lead in the Whitney - Day just let him out a little and he shot right past ToftheC like nothing and outsprinted him down the backstretch. When the pace was strong in the Classic - he could take back and finsh strong.

Awesome Again is among my 3-4 favorite horses of all time, and his '98 campaign was amazing- but to use his loss as a reason Blame shouldn't win HOY is folly. You're then discrediting Skip Away, who only won the Donn, GPH, Pimlico Special, Mass Cap, Hollywood Gold Cup, Iselin, and Woodward- before going off form the last two races. Like any horse in 2010 would have a campaign even close to that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Awesome Again is among my 3-4 favorite horses of all time, and his '98 campaign was amazing- but to use his loss as a reason Blame shouldn't win HOY is folly.

I did nothing of the sort Phillip.

I also never even said Blame shouldn't win HOY - I have just argued that if I had a vote - I wouldn't vote for him.

Blame's campaign was similar to Awesome Again - but in my opinion - the quality of most of his performances and quality of his competition certainly were not.