Privman: Let the Horse of the Year Debate Begin

[Dahoss]

What are the options though DrugS? And don't give me Uncle Mo, because that is ridiculous. If it isn't Blame because in your opinion his campaign was lame, then it can't be Zenyatta either. So who is it? Blind Luck? Proviso? Who else could even be considered?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What are the options though DrugS? And don't give me Uncle Mo, because that is ridiculous. If it isn't Blame because in your opinion his campaign was lame, then it can't be Zenyatta either. So who is it? Blind Luck? Proviso? Who else could even be considered?

Like I said, I would waste a vote on Uncle Mo as a protest vote.

I certainly believe he's a better 2-year-old than Favorite Trick in 1997 - and I believe Blame would have got absolutely murdered by the older horses in 1997 (Skip Away, Formal Gold, Gentlemen, Will's Way) ... and yet in '97 the older males beat each other often enough to split HOY votes among them while Favorite Trick dominated the tard vote and took HOY.

So, there is enough precedence with that angle. If Uncle Mo didn't run so sensationally - Goldikova.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Like I said, I would waste a vote on Uncle Mo as a protest vote.

I certainly believe he's a better 2-year-old than Favorite Trick in 1997 - and I believe Blame would have got absolutely murdered by the older horses in 1997 (Skip Away, Formal Gold, Gentlemen, Will's Way) ... and yet in '97 the older males beat each other often enough to split HOY votes among them while Favorite Trick dominated the tard vote and took HOY.

So, there is enough precedence with that angle. If Uncle Mo didn't run so sensationally - Goldikova.

And you think giving Uncle Mo HOY is going to deter campaigns like we have seen this year? I don't.

Pletcher already said he only wants to give Uncle Mo two preps next year before the Derby. This is the game now, for better or worse. I don't know how to change it, but not giving the most deserving horse an award he deserves isn't the way.

[miraja2]

To me the only serious alternative to Blame should be Blind Luck. I realize she has zero chance to actually win, but if a person wanted to lodge a "protest vote" against the campaigns of Blame and Zenyatta, I think she would make the most sense.

On the board in 8 G1 or G2s.
In the exacta in 7 of those.
Won 5 of those races including two "big ones" in the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama.

She had a campaign that we want all good horses to have, and she performed extremely well. Voting for her would make sense if a person wants to send a message that HOY (and racing more generally) isn't all about one day/race or about nursing along a perfect record running against mules.

The other question about voting for her concerns the La Brea Stakes. If she runs there and wins in December, adding another G1 to her already stellar season, I think a case could be made that she is worthy of a 1st place vote.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

To me the only serious alternative to Blame should be Blind Luck. I realize she has zero chance to actually win, but if a person wanted to lodge a "protest vote" against the campaigns of Blame and Zenyatta, I think she would make the most sense.

On the board in 8 G1 or G2s.
In the exacta in 7 of those.
Won 5 of those races including two "big ones" in the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama.

She had a campaign that we want all good horses to have, and she performed extremely well. Voting for her would make sense if a person wants to send a message that HOY (and racing more generally) isn't all about one day/race or about nursing along a perfect record running against mules.

The other question about voting for her concerns the La Brea Stakes. If she runs there and wins in December, adding another G1 to here already stellar season, I think a case could be made that she is worthy of a 1st place vote.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by miraja2

To me the only serious alternative to Blame should be Blind Luck. I realize she has zero chance to actually win, but if a person wanted to lodge a "protest vote" against the campaigns of Blame and Zenyatta, I think she would make the most sense.

On the board in 8 G1 or G2s.
In the exacta in 7 of those.
Won 5 of those races including two "big ones" in the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama.

She had a campaign that we want all good horses to have, and she performed extremely well. Voting for her would make sense if a person wants to send a message that HOY (and racing more generally) isn't all about one day/race or about nursing along a perfect record running against mules.

The other question about voting for her concerns the La Brea Stakes. If she runs there and wins in December, adding another G1 to her already stellar season, I think a case could be made that she is worthy of a 1st place vote.

Blind Luck is a cool horse, her story is also admirable.
Anyone saying HOY for her, is out of there mind. She deserves HOY a lot less then Zenyatta and about as much as Quality Road does.
Whats her excuse for not winning the biggest race of the year for her? Why never elders till then? Why not face males? UB was a horse for course, but Blind Lucks biggest win came over Churchill...Come on man, with Blind Luck being anything more then a cool horse, and 3yr old filly champ.
One last thing... Since Zenyatta was such a fraud beating TOMATOE CANS ALL YEAR, Why did Blind Luck not step up in any of those Grade 1's and defeat her elders? According to most people, Zenyatta beat nothing. Blind Luck could have stayed in her own backyard, faced elders in Grade 1 company and took down the Big Momma.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

She deserves HOY a lot less then Zenyatta and about as much as Quality Road does.

Blind Luck was in the exacta in seven G1 or G2 races this year. Did the other two you mention do that? No. To me, that means a lot. She ran in a lot of big races, all over the country, and ran well every time. To me that means a lot when you are talking about HOY.
Sure she didn't win the Distaff, but for me it isn't ALL about the BC. Her body of work over the course of the year completely dwarfs the pathetic campaigns of QR and Zenyatta.

If I had a vote, I'd probably vote for Blame even though I really don't like the overemphasis on the Breeders' Cup. But Blind Luck would be my second choice, and if she wins another G1 this year, it would be a little more difficult for me to choose between the two.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Blind Luck was in the exacta in seven G1 or G2 races this year. Did the other two you mention do that? No. To me, that means a lot. She ran in a lot of big races, all over the country, and ran well every time. To me that means a lot when you are talking about HOY.
Sure she didn't win the Distaff, but for me it isn't ALL about the BC. Her body of work over the course of the year completely dwarfs the pathetic campaigns of QR and Zenyatta.

If I had a vote, I'd probably vote for Blame even though I really don't like the overemphasis on the Breeders' Cup. But Blind Luck would be my second choice, and if she wins another G1 this year, it would be difficult for me to choose between the two.

Z was what, 5 of 6? The only second being the best dirt field assembled this year? I dont have a problem with Blame, just because I would give it to Z does not mean I have a problem with Blame getting it. I would give it to Blame any day over BL. I know going into the BC, BL had about 300k more in earnings then Z, that gap had to have closed. Like I said BL could have ran in ANY RACE THAT Z RAN IN. They choose to ship east and face Havre De Grace.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't know how to change it, but not giving the most deserving horse an award he deserves isn't the way.

Let me ask you this - how much of a curve do you grade on when grading a mare against an older male?

I think if you're ultimately grading these horses on accomplishments, quality of performance and difficulty of campaign... Blame will have a slight but very clear edge over Zenyatta. You're grading an older male against a mare though .. so it really boils down to what kind of a curve you're grading on - or if you're applying the curve in your grading at all.

No one was louder than I was about how soft Zenyatta's campaign has been - and how soft her Grade 1 wins have been - but she is a mare. I think that fact is getting lost on a few of the smarter people around here. Just as the fact that Rachel Alexandra was a 3-year-old filly last year .. and Zenyatta was a mare .. seemed to get lost on a lot of people last year.

The fact that RA was a 3yo filly - actually should have made her a unanimous winner - taking every single vote in 2009 IMO.

If you're not going to apply a curve - a 2-year-old will never win this award. A 3-year-old filly will almost never win this award. And a mare will almost never win this award.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me ask you this - how much a curve do you grade on when grading a mare against an older male?

I think if you're ultimately grading these horses on accomplishments, quality of performance and difficulty of campaign... Blame will have a slight but very clear edge over Zenyatta. You're grading an older male against a mare though .. so it really boils down to what kind of a curve you're grading on - or if you're applying the curve in your grading at all.

No one was louder than I was about how soft Zenyatta's campaign has been - and how soft her Grade 1 wins have been - but she is a mare. I think that fact is getting lost on a few of the smarter people around here. Just as the fact that Rachel Alexandra was a 3-year-old filly last year .. and Zenyatta was a mare .. seemed to get lost on a lot of people last year.

The fact that RA was a 3yo filly - actually should have made her a unanimous winner - taking every single vote in 2009 IMO.

If you're not going to apply a curve - a 2-year-old will never win this award. A 3-year-old filly will almost never win this award. And a mare will almost never win this award.

Are you talking about when I handicap, or for this discussion?

As we have seen in recent years, I don't think the gap is big at all, if it even exists between some of the better males and females in this country. I get what you are saying about her being a mare. But she's a pretty good mare and definitely good enough to be facing boys because she was that much better than those she faced out west. This is commonplace in Europe and really no reason it can't be here.

My understanding of HOY is horse that had the best year. I factor in what races they won, who they beat and how that compared to other horses. Had Zenyatta run in one other race against males this year, I think she would be a pretty solid favorite for HOY, even with the narrow defeat in the BC. But, her connections rolled the dice and she didn't win the race. She ran really well, but just fell short. That compared with the fact Blame beat her and had a pretty decent (by todays standards) year of his own means IMO he should win and win convincingly.

[Scav]

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Scav

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

She never beat males, but she was so dominant. Left Bank won older horse, but he was dead by August and only had one two turn win. 3 year old champ was War Emblem, but he didn't really deserve it. It was a weird year. Volponi romped in the Classic which really threw everything off.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

Rock of Gibralter got something like 7 votes for Horse of the Year that year - and he didn't even win the BC Mile in his only lone North American start.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Scav

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

No, she got it in 2002. 2004 was year o' the Ghostzapper. Here's her 2002 Distaff: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxD_V...eature=related She was an impressive gal, and I wish we hadn't lost her to Japan. The horses in the Distaff that year included Farda Amiga, Imperial Gesture, Take Charge Lady, Starrer, Summer Colony,  Mandy's Gold, and Two Item Limit. She got (not drilled but a rather respectable) fifth in the Classic in 2004. Beyer was totally dogging on her and I think said something about how she wouldn't finish in the top half of the field, but she did. The fact that her races were on dirt I'm sure mattered. If they were on synthetic, maybe less support for HOY.

I don't remember it being terribly controversial that she won over War Emblem or Medaglia D'Oro, but maybe somebody was saying it. I don't think the vote was very tight. People were complaining more about how that the 3yo colt and older male divisions fell apart. Either one could've gotten it, but the only horse that didn't have issues was Azeri. She did manage to travel for the Apple Blossom. If Zenyatta comes along in that year instead, running on dirt, she probably gets it even running in the Distaff.

[RockHardTen1985]

I did it. I am computer savvy. My touch was recently bricked. I manually fixed it, jailbroke it and downloaded/downgraded iTunes from 4.1 to 3.0. Genius Status.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I did it. I am computer savvy. My touch was recently bricked. I manually fixed it, jailbroke it and downloaded/downgraded iTunes from 4.1 to 3.0. Genius Status.

The fact that you use an Apple product, and worse, you use their shittyass iTunes, tells me you are a tech idiot.

No offense to any other iPoD UseRs out there intended.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I did it. I am computer savvy. My touch was recently bricked. I manually fixed it, jailbroke it and downloaded/downgraded iTunes from 4.1 to 3.0. Genius Status.

You have not accepted the folder share numbnut.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

As we have seen in recent years, I don't think the gap is big at all, if it even exists between some of the better males and females in this country.

Historically speaking - it's pretty damn wide. I will agree though - the last four years or so have featured some awfully weak crops of 3yo males and older males.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

My understanding of HOY is horse that had the best year. I factor in what races they won, who they beat and how that compared to other horses. Had Zenyatta run in one other race against males this year, I think she would be a pretty solid favorite for HOY, even with the narrow defeat in the BC. But, her connections rolled the dice and she didn't win the race. She ran really well, but just fell short. That compared with the fact Blame beat her and had a pretty decent (by todays standards) year of his own means IMO he should win and win convincingly.

I hear you.

There have been a lot of times when the best 2-year-old in the country wouldn't be good enough to defeat anyone of several hundred horses aged 3 and up.

There have been times when the best 3-year-old filly wasn't among the 60 or maybe even 100 best horses in the entire country age 3 and up.

There have been times when the best mare isn't among the 25 or 30 best horses in the country.

It's mind-boggling how bad the 3yo male and older male division is in relation to the leaders in the other divisions.

[tector]