Privman: Let the Horse of the Year Debate Begin

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me ask you this - how much a curve do you grade on when grading a mare against an older male?

I think if you're ultimately grading these horses on accomplishments, quality of performance and difficulty of campaign... Blame will have a slight but very clear edge over Zenyatta. You're grading an older male against a mare though .. so it really boils down to what kind of a curve you're grading on - or if you're applying the curve in your grading at all.

No one was louder than I was about how soft Zenyatta's campaign has been - and how soft her Grade 1 wins have been - but she is a mare. I think that fact is getting lost on a few of the smarter people around here. Just as the fact that Rachel Alexandra was a 3-year-old filly last year .. and Zenyatta was a mare .. seemed to get lost on a lot of people last year.

The fact that RA was a 3yo filly - actually should have made her a unanimous winner - taking every single vote in 2009 IMO.

If you're not going to apply a curve - a 2-year-old will never win this award. A 3-year-old filly will almost never win this award. And a mare will almost never win this award.

Are you talking about when I handicap, or for this discussion?

As we have seen in recent years, I don't think the gap is big at all, if it even exists between some of the better males and females in this country. I get what you are saying about her being a mare. But she's a pretty good mare and definitely good enough to be facing boys because she was that much better than those she faced out west. This is commonplace in Europe and really no reason it can't be here.

My understanding of HOY is horse that had the best year. I factor in what races they won, who they beat and how that compared to other horses. Had Zenyatta run in one other race against males this year, I think she would be a pretty solid favorite for HOY, even with the narrow defeat in the BC. But, her connections rolled the dice and she didn't win the race. She ran really well, but just fell short. That compared with the fact Blame beat her and had a pretty decent (by todays standards) year of his own means IMO he should win and win convincingly.

[Scav]

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Scav

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

She never beat males, but she was so dominant. Left Bank won older horse, but he was dead by August and only had one two turn win. 3 year old champ was War Emblem, but he didn't really deserve it. It was a weird year. Volponi romped in the Classic which really threw everything off.

[Sightseek]

How did Medaglia d'Oro not get 3 year old honors?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

How did Medaglia d'Oro not get 3 year old honors?

He was a lot better than War Emblem but if you look at just wins that year, I can see how War Emblem got it. Ill. Derby, KY Derby, Preakness and Haskell looks better than San Felipe, Jim Dandy and Travers. When you look at Medaglia's places in the Wood, Belmont and BC Classic he looks a lot better though.

Flawed system.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

Rock of Gibralter got something like 7 votes for Horse of the Year that year - and he didn't even win the BC Mile in his only lone North American start.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rock of Gibralter got something like 7 votes for Horse of the Year that year - and he didn't even win the BC Mile in his only lone North American start.

If that was the year he ran at Arlington and Landseer broke down, his run in that race was singlely the most impressive close I have ever seen. Matter fact, gonna go watch it again right now

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Scav

If that was the year he ran at Arlington and Landseer broke down, his run in that race was singlely the most impressive close I have ever seen. Matter fact, gonna go watch it again right now

Instead of watching the race, how bout coming up with a timeline for your little jaunt to Toronto. Or is it a straight to dvd release?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

If that was the year he ran at Arlington and Islington broke down, his run in that race was singlely the most impressive close I have ever seen. Matter fact, gonna go watch it again right now

It was impressive - I think it was Landseer who broke down though.

Street Cry was the best older male that year - and would have had no trouble beating Azeri.

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2002/pps/om.pdf


Well - he was the best older male who wasn't juiced to the gills anyway.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It was impressive - I think it was Landseer who broke down though.

Street Cry was the best older male that year - and would have had no trouble beating Azeri.

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2002/pps/om.pdf


Well - he was the best older male who wasn't juiced to the gills anyway.

I had my uncle bet Street Cry for me in the Foster... It was one of my first BIGGER BETS. I remember telling him, this horse should be 1-5 and he was 2-1. Talented, finding overlays at 16.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I had my uncle bet Street Cry for me in the Foster... It was one of my first BIGGER BETS. I remember telling him, this horse should be 1-5 and he was 2-1. Talented, finding overlays at 16.

Were you as astute with your NBA plays back then as well?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It was impressive - I think it was Landseer who broke down though.

Street Cry was the best older male that year - and would have had no trouble beating Azeri.

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2002/pps/om.pdf


Well - he was the best older male who wasn't juiced to the gills anyway.

What a monster stable Frankel had that year.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Instead of watching the race, how bout coming up with a timeline for your little jaunt to Toronto. Or is it a straight to dvd release?

Nah, kinda over those recaps, was a good time and want to go back in the summer when turf racing is going on, nothing crazy happened since I was with my dad and his friends most of the trip, I'm in a little bit of a tiff with my group of frends now and they stayed in the city and I never went and partied with them.

I will say that I was pretty impressed with my old man(56 I think) and his friends, they stayed up till 2am one of the nights playing poker in the hotel lobby, wasn't sure they had the stamina to stay up that late anymore, I was sound asleep at like midnight after being drained from a full day of horse playing.

I chalked it up to them being old and not having freedom anymore and I guess they figured they had to take advantage of it.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It was impressive - I think it was Landseer who broke down though.

Street Cry was the best older male that year - and would have had no trouble beating Azeri.

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2002/pps/om.pdf


Well - he was the best older male who wasn't juiced to the gills anyway.

Yeah, I corrected it when I was 10 seconds in about who broke down. Just watched Storm Flag Flying's race also, that was a good race also.

[RockHardTen1985]

Don't tiff...

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rock of Gibralter got something like 7 votes for Horse of the Year that year - and he didn't even win the BC Mile in his only lone North American start.

that was a heck of a 2nd place performance though!

[CSC]

If a precedent was going to be set for 1 BC race winning HOY it would have been Arazi and probably the best juvenile performance I can remember, Black Tie Affair won it that year on the strength of his Islin, Foster and Classic wins, but he certainly will not be rememered as one of the greats, his soft wire wire win in the classic over Twilight Agenda was mediocre. Goldikova simply doesn't deserve it off a single performance in the mile.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

If a precedent was going to be set for 1 BC race winning HOY it would have been Arazi and probably the best juvenile performance I can remember, Black Tie Affair won it that year on the strength of his Islin, Foster and Classic wins, but he certainly will not be rememered as one of the greats, his soft wire wire win in the classic over Twilight Agenda was mediocre. Goldikova simply doesn't deserve it off a single performance in the mile.

She deserves Horse of the World... but not Horse of America's year..

[slotdirt]

Never say an unkind word about Black Tie Affair. He was a beast.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Scav

I can't remember but did Azeri clearly have the best year when she won HOY? Wasn't there someone else that was pretty good that year and people bitched and moan about her winning it. I can't remember if she won it the year she got drilled in the Classic or not.

No, she got it in 2002. 2004 was year o' the Ghostzapper. Here's her 2002 Distaff: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxD_V...eature=related She was an impressive gal, and I wish we hadn't lost her to Japan. The horses in the Distaff that year included Farda Amiga, Imperial Gesture, Take Charge Lady, Starrer, Summer Colony,  Mandy's Gold, and Two Item Limit. She got (not drilled but a rather respectable) fifth in the Classic in 2004. Beyer was totally dogging on her and I think said something about how she wouldn't finish in the top half of the field, but she did. The fact that her races were on dirt I'm sure mattered. If they were on synthetic, maybe less support for HOY.

I don't remember it being terribly controversial that she won over War Emblem or Medaglia D'Oro, but maybe somebody was saying it. I don't think the vote was very tight. People were complaining more about how that the 3yo colt and older male divisions fell apart. Either one could've gotten it, but the only horse that didn't have issues was Azeri. She did manage to travel for the Apple Blossom. If Zenyatta comes along in that year instead, running on dirt, she probably gets it even running in the Distaff.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

No, she got it in 2002. 2004 was year o' the Ghostzapper. Here's her 2002 Distaff: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxD_V...eature=related She was an impressive gal, and I wish we hadn't lost her to Japan. The horses in the Distaff that year included Farda Amiga, Imperial Gesture, Take Charge Lady, Starrer, Summer Colony,  Mandy's Gold, and Two Item Limit. She got (not drilled but a rather respectable) fifth in the Classic in 2004. Beyer was totally dogging on her and I think said something about how she wouldn't finish in the top half of the field, but she did. The fact that her races were on dirt I'm sure mattered. If they were on synthetic, maybe less support for HOY.

I don't remember it being terribly controversial that she won over War Emblem or Medaglia D'Oro, but maybe somebody was saying it. I don't think the vote was very tight. People were complaining more about how that the 3yo colt and older male divisions fell apart. Either one could've gotten it, but the only horse that didn't have issues was Azeri. She did manage to travel for the Apple Blossom. If Zenyatta comes along in that year instead, running on dirt, she probably gets it even running in the Distaff.

i know there was a lot of discussion about it on the message board. tons of folks were unhappy that a horse with zero open races was in the running for hoy. but the group of males that year had spotty records-street cry tailed off after a good spring, left bank made a brief impressive fall run. hers was the only good, year-long campaign.
and i believe ghostzapper won hoy with only four races that year he got the award. some wanted him to get hoy the following year with just a met mile under his belt.