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#1
11-09-2010, 11:45 AM
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I hate the idea of these soft, selective, extra well spaced campaigns as much as the next guy, but I think we are going to have to get used to it.
Many trainers believe that spacing maximizes the chances of keeping a horse fresh for a full year and that really fast and tough races wear a horse down. Since the BC is now such a huge target, that gives them ample motivation to look for easy spots, to skip races, and to avoid tough ones. They also have opportunity to do so because there are many stakes around the country to look for those easier spots. I'm not sure which of the two is the better horse based on the Classic. I'm still looking at the replay of the start of the race and other things. But I'm a huge Zenyatta fan and think being this good on two surfaces is rather mind boggling, but I'd still vote for Blame. The precedent is to vote the best older male unless the division wasn't sorted out or was very weak and someone else was a monster. It's also not typical to make a lot of subjective judgments about pace, trip, bias etc... and evaluate horses that way. Usually whoever wins on the track gets the edge. 
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#2
11-09-2010, 08:33 PM
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However, that doesn't mean the voters for the year end awards need to reward horses who are campaigned in this fashion solely because of how they performed in the Classic. Go back to Awesome Again's perfect season in 1998 where he beat the toughest field ever assembled in BC Classic history and failed to win Horse of the Year - he was campaigned similarly to Blame.  He had the entrie winter off - came back against complete dogs in an easy race - stepped it up in solid editions of the Foster and Whitney for his next two. He won with the comment "hand ride" in every race that year but the Foster and BC Classic. Even though it was the best field of horses ever assembled for a BC Classic - a lot of those big horses had very tough seasons and ran like they were over-the-top in that race. Gentlemen put in a race similar to Life At Ten's performance Saturday. Skip Away struggled mightily. Silver Charm ran three times in the Strub Series, shipped to Dubai and won the World Cup - and made something like 3 or 4 different cross-country ships for races that year after he came back from Dubai. You don't see many horses do what Victory Gallop did anymore as far as running in all three triple crown races, the Haskell, the Travers, and BC Classic as a 3yo. Coronado's Quest made his 10th of 11 starts that season in the BC Classic. Running Stag was a machine, he ran in France, Germany, England, Dubai, Hong Kong, and America. Blame's own sire Arch was in that race - he only managed to beat a single horse... the DNF Gentlemen. I realize that HOY voters don't have other optins like they had in 1998 - but Blame is no Awesome Again either. Awesome Again was an extremely handy and tactical horse. When Tale of the Cat stole a 25 flat first quarter on the lead in the Whitney - Day just let him out a little and he shot right past ToftheC like nothing and outsprinted him down the backstretch. When the pace was strong in the Classic - he could take back and finsh strong.
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#3
11-09-2010, 08:40 PM
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What are the options though DrugS? And don't give me Uncle Mo, because that is ridiculous. If it isn't Blame because in your opinion his campaign was lame, then it can't be Zenyatta either. So who is it? Blind Luck? Proviso? Who else could even be considered?
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#4
11-09-2010, 08:48 PM
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I certainly believe he's a better 2-year-old than Favorite Trick in 1997 - and I believe Blame would have got absolutely murdered by the older horses in 1997 (Skip Away, Formal Gold, Gentlemen, Will's Way) ... and yet in '97 the older males beat each other often enough to split HOY votes among them while Favorite Trick dominated the tard vote and took HOY. So, there is enough precedence with that angle. If Uncle Mo didn't run so sensationally - Goldikova.
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#5
11-09-2010, 08:51 PM
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Pletcher already said he only wants to give Uncle Mo two preps next year before the Derby. This is the game now, for better or worse. I don't know how to change it, but not giving the most deserving horse an award he deserves isn't the way.
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#6
11-09-2010, 09:10 PM
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To me the only serious alternative to Blame should be Blind Luck. I realize she has zero chance to actually win, but if a person wanted to lodge a "protest vote" against the campaigns of Blame and Zenyatta, I think she would make the most sense.
On the board in 8 G1 or G2s. In the exacta in 7 of those. Won 5 of those races including two "big ones" in the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama. She had a campaign that we want all good horses to have, and she performed extremely well. Voting for her would make sense if a person wants to send a message that HOY (and racing more generally) isn't all about one day/race or about nursing along a perfect record running against mules. The other question about voting for her concerns the La Brea Stakes. If she runs there and wins in December, adding another G1 to her already stellar season, I think a case could be made that she is worthy of a 1st place vote.
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#7
11-09-2010, 09:15 PM
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#8
11-09-2010, 09:20 PM
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Anyone saying HOY for her, is out of there mind. She deserves HOY a lot less then Zenyatta and about as much as Quality Road does. Whats her excuse for not winning the biggest race of the year for her? Why never elders till then? Why not face males? UB was a horse for course, but Blind Lucks biggest win came over Churchill...Come on man, with Blind Luck being anything more then a cool horse, and 3yr old filly champ. One last thing... Since Zenyatta was such a fraud beating TOMATOE CANS ALL YEAR, Why did Blind Luck not step up in any of those Grade 1's and defeat her elders? According to most people, Zenyatta beat nothing. Blind Luck could have stayed in her own backyard, faced elders in Grade 1 company and took down the Big Momma.
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#9
11-09-2010, 10:08 PM
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I think if you're ultimately grading these horses on accomplishments, quality of performance and difficulty of campaign... Blame will have a slight but very clear edge over Zenyatta. You're grading an older male against a mare though .. so it really boils down to what kind of a curve you're grading on - or if you're applying the curve in your grading at all. No one was louder than I was about how soft Zenyatta's campaign has been - and how soft her Grade 1 wins have been - but she is a mare. I think that fact is getting lost on a few of the smarter people around here. Just as the fact that Rachel Alexandra was a 3-year-old filly last year .. and Zenyatta was a mare .. seemed to get lost on a lot of people last year. The fact that RA was a 3yo filly - actually should have made her a unanimous winner - taking every single vote in 2009 IMO. If you're not going to apply a curve - a 2-year-old will never win this award. A 3-year-old filly will almost never win this award. And a mare will almost never win this award.
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#10
11-09-2010, 10:18 PM
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As we have seen in recent years, I don't think the gap is big at all, if it even exists between some of the better males and females in this country. I get what you are saying about her being a mare. But she's a pretty good mare and definitely good enough to be facing boys because she was that much better than those she faced out west. This is commonplace in Europe and really no reason it can't be here. My understanding of HOY is horse that had the best year. I factor in what races they won, who they beat and how that compared to other horses. Had Zenyatta run in one other race against males this year, I think she would be a pretty solid favorite for HOY, even with the narrow defeat in the BC. But, her connections rolled the dice and she didn't win the race. She ran really well, but just fell short. That compared with the fact Blame beat her and had a pretty decent (by todays standards) year of his own means IMO he should win and win convincingly.
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#11
11-09-2010, 09:28 PM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#12
11-09-2010, 09:57 PM
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I also never even said Blame shouldn't win HOY - I have just argued that if I had a vote - I wouldn't vote for him. Blame's campaign was similar to Awesome Again - but in my opinion - the quality of most of his performances and quality of his competition certainly were not.
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