What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

Those numbers seem pretty fair by and large.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Those numbers seem pretty fair by and large.

I think it's generally a pretty fair course, one of my favorites to bet on...but it does trend slightly to closers or speed horses, in my opinion, either way, but since that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, I really think that lots of the races that are won by speed or closers boils down to race dynamics rather than any intrinsic unfairness in the course.

It becomes a bit more extreme when broken out, though.

Rail 0-42 feet

Stalkers/Closers 60/109 = 55%
Pressers/Speed 49/109 = 45%



Rail 43-87 feet

Stalkers/Closers 44/71 = 62%
Pressers/Speed 27/71 = 38%