What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thank you

I can't find the information I found, I deleted the sent mail, but it indicated a major front end bias in 5 furlong turf races. I'll be able to get it again next week when they run a straight 5 furlong race again. Next two days there is no straight 5 furlong races.

Please don't take this the wrong way -- but I'm wondering if you're confusing a sort of turf "bias" with the nature of 5f and 5.5f sprints as a whole; speed is a huge advantage.

Take the Arlington Polytrack course -- speed horses are winning 28.7% of all races run on the Arlington main course, but they're winning an astounding 40% of 5f & 5.5f sprints. Speed is a threat at shorter distances, but it's not always because a course isn't fair, there are huge race dynamics involved.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Please don't take this the wrong way -- but I'm wondering if you're confusing a sort of turf "bias" with the nature of 5f and 5.5f sprints as a whole; speed is a huge advantage.

Take the Arlington Polytrack course -- speed horses are winning 28.7% of all races run on the Arlington main course, but they're winning an astounding 40% of 5f & 5.5f sprints. Speed is a threat at shorter distances, but it's not always because a course isn't fair, there are huge race dynamics involved.

I get it.

I got the stats from here (See Delaware Track Bias as example). Probably hard to see but when Arlington runs another 5f at her specific conditions I will get them again



Also, let me say that I am not trying to make it about Surfer, she is what she is, I never look at these stats but I happened to look when I was rewatching her race and I noticed the stats and thought it was odd

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Also, let me say that I am not trying to make it about Surfer, she is what she is, I never look at these stats but I happened to look when I was rewatching her race and I noticed the stats and thought it was odd

Nah, I know that -- I'm the one who brought her up, because in the course of researching this for this thread, I found out that she was the deepest closing turf sprint winner of the meet.

That's not on you for me bringing it up, we just disagree about the nature of the Arlington turf course, especially in sprints, because compared to main track races at similar distances, it's remarkably fair, heck, even kind to closers compared to the main track.