What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Not as bad as it seems watching the races.

13 of 48 (27%) turf sprints have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call (which I know is very near the end of these sprints, but it's the best way to measure it....if a speed horse was up front and going to win, they'd likely still be there, but remember that these "style" stats are done by eye, so the speed winners really are speed winners, and likely fit the criteria listed above).

10 of 32 (31%) turf sprints at 5f have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call.

And funnily enough, Surfer Rosa has the meet record for most lengths OFF the pace at the half-mile call to have won.

Half mile call? Are you talking at the half mile pole or the half mile time?

The numbers I caught were W2W.

I got those stats from TSTV.com's handicapping section, which those numbers come from Bris.

I can't find the Drugs-like email I put together, the next 5f race on the turf, I'll post what they have.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Half mile call? Are you talking at the half mile pole or the half mile time?

The numbers I caught were W2W.

I got those stats from TSTV.com's handicapping section, which those numbers come from Bris.

I can't find the Drugs-like email I put together, the next 5f race on the turf, I'll post what they have.

Half mile call, so like I said, near the end of the race -- but if a winner is listed as "speed" in the Arlington Turf Stats, then it was a speed horse up top who held on the whole way, so it's really distinction without a difference.

So the stats above are for leaders at the half-mile call, near the end of the race, but they aren't that significantly higher than the "speed" horse numbers, so the point is essentially the same, that speed horses, however you classify them, win about a third of turf sprints, any way you look at it as far as I can tell from the visual "turf stats" and the Polycapping databse.