What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

Scav · #1 08-10-2010, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You should be happy. I think your local track has the fairest turf course. Maybe I'm wrong.

I think your wrong. Speed never really hold even with real slow fractions. It favors stalkers IMO. Closers have a hell of a time getting to the wire.

randallscott35 · #2 08-10-2010, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I think your wrong. Speed never really hold even with real slow fractions. It favors stalkers IMO. Closers have a hell of a time getting to the wire.

What's your pick?

randallscott35 · #3 08-10-2010, 06:57 PM

You'll laugh but The Big M turf course plays very fair though it may never be used again. Much fairer than Monmouth.

randallscott35 · #4 08-10-2010, 07:03 PM

I loved Hialeah's turf course.

Scav · #5 08-10-2010, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

What's your pick?

I have no opinion because I never look that deep into things. I just look at a race and try and pick the winner and figure out the best way to make myself look like an idiot.

dellinger63 · #6 08-10-2010, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I have no opinion because I never look that deep into things. I just look at a race and try and pick the winner and figure out the best way to make myself look like an idiot.

Go down to the park 7th Heaven is playing that day. Arlington notified me by email, not who may be running but what band is playing and forgot; 'pony rides' as well

tiggerv · #7 08-10-2010, 07:36 PM

Colonial and Tampa

randallscott35 · #8 08-10-2010, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Colonial and Tampa

Sorry I have bet a lot of Tampa and think the turns are too tight to play that fairly.

tiggerv · #9 08-10-2010, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Sorry I have bet a lot of Tampa and think the turns are too tight to play that fairly.

I find Tampa at 8/8.5F about as fair as it gets for Turf.

the_fat_man · #10 08-10-2010, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Colonial and Tampa

The problem I have with CNL (and FG and AP, and some others) is that too often the leaders collapse very late. Your horse could be home on any other course but get run down the last few strides on these courses.

I suspected this was due to course issues of some sort. This was clarified by Desormeaux in the post race interview of the Virginia Derby. He spoke about the course(s) being uneven, how there are portions, in the stretch and elsewhere, that are lower than the rest of the course. And, how it was very important to keep Paddy O'Prado's head up while running over those portions so that he didn't bobble or lose his stride.

Speed favoring turf courses can be a real pain in the ass to handicap but at least they play consistently. It's courses like those mentioned above that are the most difficult to beat because you don't know how they'll pay and you can lose with the best horse very late.

tiggerv · #11 08-10-2010, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The problem I have with CNL (and FG and AP, and some others) is that too often the leaders collapse very late. Your horse could be home on any other course but get run down the last few strides on these courses.

I suspected this was due to course issues of some sort. This was clarified by Desormeaux in the post race interview of the Virginia Derby. He spoke about the course(s) being uneven, how there are portions, in the stretch and elsewhere, that are lower than the rest of the course. And, how it was very important to keep Paddy O'Prado's head up while running over those portions so that he didn't bobble or lose his stride.

Speed favoring turf courses can be a real pain in the ass to handicap but at least they play consistently. It's courses like those mentioned above that are the most difficult to beat because you don't know how they'll pay and you can lose with the best horse very late.

The Colonial inner seems to play extremely fair. It's hard to judge the outer because they run mostly sprints on it. The course may have been uneven since they run 100+ sprints and only about 20 routes on it.

brianwspencer · #12 08-10-2010, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I think your wrong. Speed never really hold even with real slow fractions. It favors stalkers IMO. Closers have a hell of a time getting to the wire.

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You should be happy. I think your local track has the fairest turf course. Maybe I'm wrong.

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

RockHardTen1985 · #13 08-10-2010, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

tiggerv · #14 08-10-2010, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

Why is that?

RockHardTen1985 · #15 08-10-2010, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Why is that?

Really? I thought it was fairly obvious. I never want to see any horse I bet pressing the pace. Its just not where you want to be. What advantage do you have? I want to be on the lead, stalking tucked in, or coming from out of it in a fast paced race.
IMO they seem to back up/stop more then any other type of horse. The speed either keeps going or your sucked into a hot pace and stuck making the first, most of the time premature move.

the_fat_man · #16 08-10-2010, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

Because jocks continually botch it up by moving too soon. If you're chasing a lone speed, you're supposed to go after it late stretch. If you get it, fine. If not, you're 2nd. For some reason, jocks seem to think that the finish line is on the turn.

DaTruth · #17 08-10-2010, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Because jocks continually botch it up by moving too soon. If you're chasing a lone speed, you're supposed to go after it late stretch. If you get it, fine. If not, you're 2nd. For some reason, jocks seem to think that the finish line is on the turn.

I hate when that happens, especially when the speed hits another gear and stays with the presser.

philcski · #18 08-10-2010, 09:12 PM

No statistics to back it up but I also like Fair Grounds' turf course. No argument for anyone saying Belmont outer (except NOT at a mile and a sixteenth) or Woodbine, either.

The 'most fun' turf course is far and away Kentucky Downs. What a great place.

As for the pressers question, I think part of it is pressers tend to be speed that can't make the lead and don't want or know how to pass, so they invariably back up and run terribly. A STRONG presser versus cheap speed is about the best trip, IMO, because there's (a) no trouble and (b) no decision to be made about when to make a move.

brianwspencer · #19 08-10-2010, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

Certainly has worked out that way at Arlington this year.

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Polytrack

Closers: 104/421 = 24.7%
Stalkers: 125/421 = 29.7%
Pressers: 71/421 = 16.9%
Speed: 121/421 = 28.7%

randallscott35 · #20 08-10-2010, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

Those numbers seem pretty fair by and large.