Look Out, Quality Road

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.





Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

Doug, I could not have said it better myself. If they meet in the Pacific Classic and Gio Ponti is in the 6-5 range, my money would be on St. Trinians. Nick just does not appreciate her greatness.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

Per an old chart I have, I show GP running 61 feet MORE than Madeo (5 path 2nd turn to that one's 2 path). You think that accounts for the 1/2 length beat? That'd turn the tables on just about any horse on that course.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.





Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

As far as my characterization of St. Trinians, that was really more of a compliment than anything else. I thought she ran a terrific race against Z, I've never said anything to the contrary.

The Del Mar Derby that Gio Ponti lost to Madeo in was certainly one of his disappointing efforts, he was 9-10 to win the race. Madeo benefited from an absolutely perfect trip and GP was also victimized by an overconfident ride from Garrett Gomez. I think that 2009, for the most part, made it clear that Gio Ponti was a different animal at 4 than he was at 3. After all, he was subsequently beaten twice by Court Vision (with the HOL Derby being circumstancial).

Gio Ponti ran a good race in the Dubai World Cup to finish fourth rallying into that viciously slow pace. His Strub was more of an aberration than anything else because he certainly ran well in the Sir Beaufort and BCC. I mean, Doug, after all, you and I have been told here dozens of times that that was like the greatest Classic field ever.

As far as me including Del Mar, that really was inconsequential. Obviously neither have started at Del Mar so it'd be impossible to determine who has any type of edge there. If St. Trinians were to come out and run a huge race again vs. Zenyatta then clearly you would think that she'd have an edge on Gio Ponti.

The thing to me about St. Trinians is that I don't really see her becoming considerably better at ten furlongs and her likely getting a little weary late. Could there be circumstances that lead to her getting the distance without a problem? Sure, but I would be more inclined to think GP's two best synthetic races are as good, if not better than any of St. Trinians prior races (or 1 and 1) and that he'd have an edge at the distance.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I was mostly just needling you. You typically have a good take but are skilled at spoiling the take with inconsequential silliness.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I was mostly just needling you. You typically have a good take but are skilled at spoiling the take with inconsequential silliness.

I had a feeling you were put up to it by a certain numskull.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think that 2009, for the most part, made it clear that Gio Ponti was a different animal at 4 than he was at 3. After all, he was subsequently beaten twice by Court Vision (with the HOL Derby being circumstancial).



NT

He had a whole bunch of bad rides/luck as a three year old. Then they took Gomez off and GP started getting good luck, and Ventura (in the race she lost to GP, among others) started getting some of that bad (GG) luck.

You sound like the connections of Tasty Temptation with that comment. After she won her last race, easily handling Milwaukee Appeal, her nemesis of last year, Casse says something to the effect "she better this year" and the owners echoed it. No she's not, dumbasses, she's just not getting that widest no cover move too early move from Husbands -- so far.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He had a whole bunch of bad rides/luck as a three year old. Then they took Gomez off and GP started getting good luck, and Ventura (in the race she lost to GP, among others) started getting some of that bad (GG) luck.

You sound like the connections of Tasty Temptation with that comment. After she won her last race, easily handling Milwaukee Appeal, her nemesis of last year, Casse says something to the effect "she better this year" and the owners echoed it. No she's not, dumbasses, she's just not getting that widest no cover move too early move from Husbands -- so far.

I liked him from Day 1 but I still don't think he ran races as a 3YO, even with trouble, that were remotely close to his Man O' War and Arlington Million last year. Sure, the Hill Prince and Va Derby were good races as was the Del Mar Derby, but a wide/uncovered trip in the Man O'War last year didn't adversely impact him at all. I thought he developed with time.

NT

[asudevil]

Will Rail Trip jump up on the dirt? Mr. Baffert always says that running on the synth's is like racing with galoshes on. How much can he improve? I'm sure Dicky will change his shoes and give his teeth a polishing.

[the_fat_man]

No doubt he ran some exceptional races as a 4 year old. But when you consider that he also 'should've' won the Del Mar Derby, the Jamaica, and the Holywood Derby, you get a sense of how good a 3 year old he really was.

More importantly, when we consider, in the context of the present discussion, that Gomez cost GP a G1 and a G2 (as a 3 year old) and Ventura at least 2 G1's, you get a sense of how bad that clown really is.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Will Rail Trip jump up on the dirt? Mr. Baffert always says that running on the synth's is like racing with galoshes on. How much can he improve? I'm sure Dicky will change his shoes and give his teeth a polishing.

his figures surely will but his ability is not changing. He is talented and figures prominently in any mile race.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I liked him from Day 1 but I still don't think he ran races as a 3YO, even with trouble, that were remotely close to his Man O' War and Arlington Million last year. Sure, the Hill Prince and Va Derby were good races as was the Del Mar Derby, but a wide/uncovered trip in the Man O'War last year didn't adversely impact him at all. I thought he developed with time.

NT

It's Ramon, notice how Better Talk Now's career took off when Ramon took over the riding duties over Douglas, Prado, ect...There are times riders get unjust credit for winning rides but in the case of Ramon I truly believe the horse wouldn't have had half the career he had, had Ramon never ridden him.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's interesting that the great ride Gomez gave him in last year's Manhattan is being casually ignored.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

Excellent, thorough analysis.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's interesting that the great ride Gomez gave him in last year's Manhattan is being casually ignored.

As is the bad ride Dominguez gave him in this years Manhattan, and he was a jump away from repeating it in the Man of War.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

As is the bad ride Dominguez gave him in this years Manhattan, and he was a jump away from repeating it in the Man of War.

That wasn't a bad ride, the race was paceless, you had a former claimer on an easy lead. Ramon recognized this, rode GP as he was the best horse and won without taking the horse out of his preferred style. This is precisely why I mentioned Better Talk Now, he was the one rider that understood how to get the most out of this horse, I've seen Douglas try to lay BTN closer to the pace and he wasn't as effective. Having Gio Ponti press the leaders or up on the pace would be counter productive to the horse's style.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

That wasn't a bad ride, the race was paceless, you had a former claimer on an easy lead. Ramon recognized this, rode GP as he was the best horse and won without taking the horse out of his preferred style. This is precisely why I mentioned Better Talk Now, he was the one rider that understood how to get the most out of this horse, I've seen Douglas try to lay BTN closer to the pace and he wasn't as effective. Having Gio Ponti press the leaders or up on the pace would be counter productive to the horse's style.

It was a risky ride. He doesn't need to be that far off the pace. If you're behind Grand Couturier early, you're doing something wrong.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It was a risky ride. He doesn't need to be that far off the pace. If you're behind Grand Couturier early, you're doing something wrong.

If he had never ridden him before, yes I would agree. I think this was a case of a rider knowing his horse and the turn of foot he had.

Edit- The one thing I hate are riders that panic and improvise during races. Ie. early moves. It is one of Ramon's best qualities as a rider, he's cool as a cucumber and yes at times it may get him into trouble, however more times than not it pays off.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It was a risky ride. He doesn't need to be that far off the pace. If you're behind Grand Couturier early, you're doing something wrong.

I agree, it was a risky ride. But I don't think it was nearly as bad as some are making it out to be. My take and it's possible I'm way off is Gio Ponti is better when he is allowed to make one sweeping wide run. If you notice, Dominguez had chances to draft up inside of Bearpath, but chose not to. He probably would have liked to get around Midnite Silver also, but he was moving too quick to.

All in all, I thought it was a perfect set up to whatever race they are aiming at, because he only ran for about one furlong.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Per an old chart I have, I show GP running 61 feet MORE than Madeo (5 path 2nd turn to that one's 2 path). You think that accounts for the 1/2 length beat? That'd turn the tables on just about any horse on that course.

I had it at 58.5 feet

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by CSC

That wasn't a bad ride, the race was paceless, you had a former claimer on an easy lead. Ramon recognized this, rode GP as he was the best horse and won without taking the horse out of his preferred style. This is precisely why I mentioned Better Talk Now, he was the one rider that understood how to get the most out of this horse, I've seen Douglas try to lay BTN closer to the pace and he wasn't as effective. Having Gio Ponti press the leaders or up on the pace would be counter productive to the horse's style.

Strangling a horse off a 1.18 mile is recognizing the pace? It almost cost him losing to another longshot.