15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Correct me IF I wrong because all you have done is repp'd nothing which discounts the simple fact that of the last 7 2 year old champs that have attempted to win TC WHEN THEY WON THE FIRST 2 LEGS ONLY S Bid lost. YES OR NO will do.

hmmm. You want a yes/no answer from Rollo Tomasi, but you avoided my question to you. Let me paraphrase it: If the close voting for 2014 Juvenile Champion had gone the other way, and Texas Red had won it, would that mean that American Pharoah would have a smaller chance to win the TC, in your opinion?

You've written that AP is "a stone cold cinch" to win the Belmont. How much of that is due to his squeaking out a 53%/47% win over Texas Red, 126-111? In fact, AP got less than 50% of all the votes cast for 2-yr-old Champion.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

hmmm. You want a yes/no answer from Rollo Tomasi, but you avoided my question to you. Let me paraphrase it: If the close voting for 2014 Juvenile Champion had gone the other way, and Texas Red had won it, would that mean that American Pharoah would have a smaller chance to win the TC, in your opinion?

You've written that AP is "a stone cold cinch" to win the Belmont. How much of that is due to his squeaking out a 53%/47% win over Texas Red, 126-111? In fact, AP got less than 50% of all the votes cast for 2-yr-old Champion.

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

Yes none of them were 2 year old champs. Easy Goer was but never won either Derby or Preakness

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Yes none of them were 2 year old champs. Easy Goer was but never won either Derby or Preakness

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

I think everyone already knows this, but what the heck, I'll state the obvious.

When a horse is referred to as a lock, people usually will mean that the horse is a lock barring injury, really bad trips, etc...

As for your list of locks, in what universe was Sunday Silence a lock? Hell, I can make a case that Easy Goer really should have won the Preakness, as he turned his head sideways during the stretch and tried to savage Sunday Silence.

California Chrome got injured. See above on that.

The Bid and SJ both had really stupid rides.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

As for your list of locks, in what universe was Sunday Silence a lock? Hell, I can make a case that Easy Goer really should have won the Preakness, as he turned his head sideways during the stretch and tried to savage Sunday Silence.
.

Pat Day said that he turned Easy Goer's head to look at him; EG wasn't trying to bite SS.

http://articles.latimes.com/1989-06-...-laffit-pincay

(Really entertaining article about the 1989 Preakness and the East vs West riding styles. Note that Sunday Silence is talked about at the end like a lock for the Belmont. )

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

There is no way in the world you thought SS and CC were locks.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by cakes44

There is no way in the world you thought SS and CC were locks.

me personally no. but the press and many fans thought so. besides The Bid, I thought Smarty was the one, but hey **** happens. and if the racing god's did not allow The Bid or Smarty in, They will not allow AP in either, bring on the longshots!!!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

Correct

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.

So, if AP wins the TC, it'll probably be because 8 voters (out of 265 total votes) voted for AP instead of Texas Red. (Otherwise, AP would have had a much smaller chance to win.)

I wish I knew who to thank!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

So, if AP wins the TC, it'll probably be because 8 voters (out of 265 total votes) voted for AP instead of Texas Red. (Otherwise, AP would have had a much smaller chance to win.)

I wish I knew who to thank!

You can spin it that way but I wouldnt chose to too.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

So, if AP wins the TC, it'll probably be because 8 voters (out of 265 total votes) voted for AP instead of Texas Red. (Otherwise, AP would have had a much smaller chance to win.)

I wish I knew who to thank!

7 of 8.. In other words 2 year old champs for win first 2 legs are a cinch in Belmont