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#13
05-28-2015, 03:55 PM
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Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.
The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range. Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson 
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