15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

Alabama Stakes · #1 05-28-2015, 03:11 PM

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

FATPIANO · #2 05-28-2015, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

ditto

declansharbor · #3 05-28-2015, 03:21 PM

Since this thread is all about proclaiming opinions as truths, here's my "fact" for the masses.

He breaks clean, settles in, and runs away from them in the stretch. Triple Crown drought is ova!

Dunbar · #4 05-28-2015, 03:55 PM

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range.

Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?

FATPIANO · #5 05-28-2015, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range.

Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?

lol funny stuff

Travis Stone · #6 05-28-2015, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

I posted about this the other day to some degree...

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=56

It's impossible to have a logical, honest conversation about horses like this with some folks. Their percentages are 100% winner and there is no way it's anything but that. Despite the fact, ya know, it's horse racing.

Dunbar · #7 05-29-2015, 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I posted about this the other day to some degree...

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=56

It's impossible to have a logical, honest conversation about horses like this with some folks. Their percentages are 100% winner and there is no way it's anything but that. Despite the fact, ya know, it's horse racing.

I agree, Travis, except that the people saying AP has zero chance are just as bad, IMO.

Travis Stone · #8 05-29-2015, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree, Travis, except that the people saying AP has zero chance are just as bad, IMO.

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

freddymo · #9 05-28-2015, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

Did you see the derby when he was the dog wearing down the undefeated Dortmund, you know the battle tested horse that gets passed in the lane and then comes back to win, 106 BSF colt. And the well rested Firing Line?

knickslions2 · #10 05-28-2015, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

Whose going to dog him? Materiality is the only that will be able to press him and will get put away by mile pole if he does. The rest of the field is too slow. If AP stays healthy going into this race he will be very tough to beat based on this field.

FATPIANO · #11 05-28-2015, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Whose going to dog him? Materiality is the only that will be able to press him and will get put away by mile pole if he does. The rest of the field is too slow. If AP stays healthy going into this race he will be very tough to beat based on this field.

Materiality should be going for the Crown, if he had a clean break, he will win the Belmont, and silence the crowd

asudevil · #12 05-28-2015, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

You're gonna compare a race where the jock was hopped up on a lot of toot to this? And there's always the story of the safety pin....

Alabama Stakes · #13 05-28-2015, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil

You're gonna compare a race where the jock was hopped up on a lot of toot to this? And there's always the story of the safety pin....

Go read Bids pp's . And in 79 when toot was real everybody was hopped up. The point is that better hosses than AP have failed.