15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown
 

Call me crazy, but every time we have a Triple Crown on the line, We all get to relive some of the greatest triple crown runs in the last 37 (and counting) years. If AP wins the Triple Crown these great horses become a footnote in history, where as they come back alive for the three weeks between the Preakness and the Belmont. we get to read and watch them race again, as you keep hearing about the misses. The fifteen reasons are:

1 Spectacular Bid
2 Easy Goer
3 Sunday Silence
4 Alysheba
5 Bet Twice
6 Real Quiet
7 Victory Gallop
8 Silver Charm
9 Touch Gold
10 Funny Cide
11 Empire Maker
12 Smarty Jones
13 Big Brown
14 I'll Have Another
15 California Chrome

Every year we get to watch Their TC races again, and relive history, these are some of the greatest that have ever run,I don't want to start a new list. I don't think I'll have another Triple Crown winner, I want to add to this list instead. Like I said call me crazy.........

Call me crazy, but I think AP may be The One who ends the drought. If he does it doesn't take a thing away from those Triple Crown tries. Although I will grant you this: studying those failed attempts is a great exercise reminding us of just how many things can go wrong, and how many great horses came so close. What we want, of course, is irrelevant to the outcome. As for me, I want to see him do it, and do it with class and authority.

Save Spectacular Bid were any 2 year old champs? Now look at the 7 TC winners and tell me how many of them indeed were 2 year old champs?

Freddy, it's as significant that he was a 2YO champ as it is that he has a short tail. Who cares? Last year's 2YOs were largely a joke with their abbreviated campaigns. Add to it that the widespread belief was that AP would have won the Juvenile, regardless of the negative pace setup he would have faced, because a horse he beat in the prep ended up winning it.

You left out the part about AP winning the juvenile because he is much better than those that ran, the beloved Upstart included.

Pretty amazing that you didn't know Easy Goer was 2YO champ.

I respectfully disagree for the following :

1) History.. of the last 7 winners of TC 6 proved themselves to be outstanding at two to discount this is to suggest that it doesnt matter what you are at two. I can give you 14 out of 15 reasons why that in fact is significant with the lone exception an all time Giant that had a dopey ride on from a novice.

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

Wow Easy Goer won the Derby and Preakness who knew? lol.. I have to sue the guy who sold me this picture of the Preakness geez I get taken all the time..

6 of the last 7 winners of the TC were 2 year old champions save Bid.

Upstart has only run 1 poor race in his life and its impossible to know if AP would have won Juvy. Upstart was as good as any 3 year old up to the derby IF you simply evaluate what they do on race day. What's the difference I wonder if we see him again anytime soon if at all. Given his trainer I think he has done enough but I certainly hope he comes back he is a really good colt. I would like him better then any horse save frosted in Belmont.

This is what you said, that I was referring to, in answer to the list of 15 names...

I am just saying that if he wins (he will not) I would miss hearing about the one's from 1979 to the present that lost, do you ever hear about the one's from Citation to Secretariat? I would miss reliving The Bid, Easy Goer,Smarty etc.

You left out the part about how adverse pace scenarios/race dynamics present the easiest way for superior horses to be beaten in a given race.

i really thought you were being tongue in cheek above.

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

ditto

Did you see the derby when he was the dog wearing down the undefeated Dortmund, you know the battle tested horse that gets passed in the lane and then comes back to win, 106 BSF colt. And the well rested Firing Line?

Whose going to dog him? Materiality is the only that will be able to press him and will get put away by mile pole if he does. The rest of the field is too slow. If AP stays healthy going into this race he will be very tough to beat based on this field.

Since this thread is all about proclaiming opinions as truths, here's my "fact" for the masses.

He breaks clean, settles in, and runs away from them in the stretch. Triple Crown drought is ova!

I left it out intentionally because it seems pretty evident he can go at his own pace.

Keep up the good fight though.

Materiality should be going for the Crown, if he had a clean break, he will win the Belmont, and silence the crowd