15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

Fred, let's look at dual classic winners:

1963: Chateaugay- won 2 of 5 starts at 2; lost Preakness
1964: Northern Dancer- champion 2yo in Canada (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1966: Kauai King- won 1 of 4 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1967: Damascus- won 3 of 4 starts at 2 including Remsen; lost Derby
1968: Forward Pass- stakes winner in 2 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1969: Majestic Prince- winner of both starts at 2; lost Belmont
1971: Canonero II- won 1 of 3 starts at 2 (2 in NA); lost Belmont
1972: Riva Ridge- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Preakness
1974: Little Current- maiden in 4 starts at 2; lost Derby
1976: Bold Forbes- won 7 of 8 starts including stakes; lost Preakness
1979: Spectacular Bid- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1981: Pleasant Colony- won 2 of 5 starts including Remsen; lost Belmont
1984: Swale- won 5 of 7 (2nd in vote for champion); lost Preakness
1987: Alysheba- won 1 of 7 starts, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Belmont
1988: Risen Star- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Derby
1989: Sunday Silence- won 1 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
1991: Hansel- won 3 of 5, stakes winner; lost Derby
1993: Tabasco Cat- won 3 of 6, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Derby
1995: Thunder Gulch- won 2 of 6 including Remsen; lost Preakness
1997: Silver Charm- won 2 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
1998: Real Quiet- won 2 of 9 starts, including G1; lost Belmont
1999: Charismatic- won 1 of 7 starts; lost Belmont
2002: War Emblem- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
2003: Funny Cide- won 3 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
2004: Smarty Jones- won 2 of 2 including stakes; lost Belmont
2006: Afleet Alex- won 4 of 6, G1, 2nd in Eclipse voting; lost Derby
2008: Big Brown- won only start at 2; lost Belmont
2012: I'll Have Another- won 1 of 3, stakes placed; did not attempt TC
2014: California Chrome- won 3 of 7, including stakes; lost Belmont

Now, recent Triple Crown winners:
1973: Secretariat- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)
1977: Seattle Slew- champion 2yo (won 3 of 3)
1978: Affirmed- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)

Finally,

2015: American Pharaoh- champion 2yo (won 2 of 3)

Other curiosities:

-2 of Bob Baffert's other Triple Crown failures won 2 of 3 starts as 2yos. American Pharaoh won 2 of 3 starts as a 2yo.

-of all the horses listed, only 2 ran in the Del Mar Futurity at 2, Silver Charm and California Chrome, both of whom failed in the Belmont. American Pharaoh won the Del Mar Futurity last year.

-average starts at 2 for modern Triple Crown winner = 7
-average starts at 2 for recent Triple Crown failure = 5

-24 of the 29 Triple Crown failures competed in stakes as 2yos