American Pharoah...

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I went back and watched all of Upstarts races. I now have a better appreciation for the horse, but at the same time, it confirmed what I already felt about him. He's a presser that lays up close to the lead and probably prefers a one turn type of race say from 7/8ths to 8.5 furlongs in distance.

This notion that he is some sort of stone cold closer is completely unsubstantiated by both his PPs and his actual racing style. Hell, in his first few starts, the jock is trying to get him to rate and Upstart fights the jockey very noticeably!

I'd love to have someone illustrate how I am wrong with this.

Of course, nobody will.

Only in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby can one say that Upstart was pressing the pace.

Coincidentally, both races had pedestrian early fractions.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Only in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby can one say that Upstart was pressing the pace.

Coincidentally, both races had pedestrian early fractions.

He's always within five lengths of the lead, usually significantly less (at the half).

If not pressing, then stalking, if you want to play it that way Rollo.

Coincidentally, the race he was allegedly taken out of his game in, namely the BCJ, he was the furthest back from the leaders. His post was almost certainly responsible for that.

As for the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, I am not confident that the pace was that slow, as that track was not the autobahn it's historically been over the years.

[RHT2004]

I don't understand why the NYB comment is such a big deal. Would it be the worst thing in the world to jog in a NYB race, that race being used as a confidence booster for him? Have him primed for Saratoga? If he was mine, and healthy after the Derby debacle I would point him to the Belmont.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I don't understand why the NYB comment is such a big deal. Would it be the worst thing in the world to jog in a NYB race, that race being used as a confidence booster for him? Have him primed for Saratoga? If he was mine, and healthy after the Derby debacle I would point him to the Belmont.

The big deal for them is that they are emotionally invested in the horse and are lacking objectivity.

Something I'm being accused of despite my saying that AP was less impressive than I had expected.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He's always within five lengths of the lead, usually significantly less (at the half).

5 lengths? Shouldn't a presser by definition be quite a bit closer to the pace? Like, within a length?

If not pressing, then stalking, if you want to play it that way Rollo.

Stalking sounds better...if we are referring to his Florida races.

Coincidentally, the race he was allegedly taken out of his game in, namely the BCJ, he was the furthest back from the leaders. His post was almost certainly responsible for that.

In the BC, the horse was hustled out of the gate and IMO was pushed to move early into a fast pace down the backstretch.

In general, this horse always seems to be asked to move too soon. It probably made sense in the Florida Derby, with Materiality trying to sneak away.

Also note his early position in each of his races. 6th, 5th, 5th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd. He is always behind several horses entering the backstretch.

I'm not sure its totally by rider design as the horse descends from A.P. Indy, who is notorious for grinders (unfortunately, I think Freddy posted something similar) and perhaps the colt is hard to get "in gear".

He'd be an interesting one to see held back to make one run the last quarter.

As for the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, I am not confident that the pace was that slow, as that track was not the autobahn it's historically been over the years.

The Holy Bull card seemed to have solid 1/2 mile fractions on the undercard. The Florida Derby not so much, with only a few other dirt races, but again, it made sense to keep Materiality in range.