American Pharoah...

blackthroatedwind · #1 05-04-2015, 05:16 PM

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

Indian Charlie · #2 05-04-2015, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

His durability is a serious question.

RHT2004 · #3 05-04-2015, 05:25 PM

Based on what I saw he did have an off day and still won because he is that much better then these horses, maybe Dortmund being the exception. Yes he had a clear trip, but he was also wide throughout the race so those things X each other out. I think he dominates the Preakness and probably losses the Belmont for a lot of the reasons BTW mentioned. He was hurt, and they are asking an awfully lot of him right now. I do think he will be sent to the lead in the Belmont and in Smarty Jones like fashion will open up turning for home. No way this jockey will play games after last year. But all of the racing will catch up to him. I want him to do it. I like the owner, he has had some great horses and has been unlucky. I also think the GOAT deserves it, Im just not sure its in the cards. Its kinda funny because everyone says how good/deep this crop is. And AP won and it feels like because he didn't win in hand by 10 lengths that its not good enough.....

blackthroatedwind · #4 05-04-2015, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Based on what I saw he did have an off day and still won because he is that much better then these horses.....

I rest my case.

Indian Charlie · #5 05-04-2015, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I rest my case.

Actually, I think he's had a brain transplant.

His posts since coming back seem like they're being ghost written.

Sightseek · #6 05-04-2015, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Based on what I saw he did have an off day and still won because he is that much better then these horses, maybe Dortmund being the exception. Yes he had a clear trip, but he was also wide throughout the race so those things X each other out. I think he dominates the Preakness and probably losses the Belmont for a lot of the reasons BTW mentioned. He was hurt, and they are asking an awfully lot of him right now. I do think he will be ,sent to the lead in the Belmont and in Smarty Jones like fashion will open up turning for home. No way this jockey will play games after last year. But all of the racing will catch up to him. I want him to do it. I like the owner, he has had some great horses and has been unlucky. I also think the GOAT deserves it, Im just not sure its in the cards. Its kinda funny because everyone says how good/deep this crop is. And AP won and it feels like because he didn't win in hand by 10 lengths that its not good enough.....

I don't perceive there being any negativity towards his performance, only a bit of reality that he isn't a super horse.

Perhaps this will play out to be like a Captain Bodgit, Silver Charm & Free House Triple Crown season. (With Materiality being the bad-trip spoiler in the Belmont

)

RHT2004 · #7 05-04-2015, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I don't perceive there being any negativity towards his performance, only a bit of reality that he isn't a super horse.

Perhaps this will play out to be like a Captain Bodgit, Silver Charm & Free House Triple Crown season. (With Materiality being the bad-trip spoiler in the Belmont

)

But only crazy people on twitter called him a super horse, right? I don't get how winning the Derby makes you not as good as you were going in. Its not like the beyer came back really slow, and timeform gave it a good fig. I thought it was a good performance from a very good horse.

Arletta · #8 05-04-2015, 06:53 PM

"According to CHRB staff, Kentucky requires that a jockey show the horse the whip and give it time to respond before striking the horse, and then must give the horse time to respond before striking it again. New York also requires jockeys to show the crop to the horse before striking again."

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz3ZDHMIvrd

Benny · #9 05-04-2015, 07:09 PM

AP wears them ,and lost his only race without them. YET, the bettor has no knowledge of this in the pps, alongwith shoeing info and change of bits, no ? I had not known of he AP bar shoe until i read it here. why are lask and blinkers reported, but not earplugs, and sometimes shoeing ?

http://www.si.com/horse-racing/2015/...nd-bob-baffert

blackthroatedwind · #10 05-04-2015, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

But only crazy people on twitter called him a super horse, right? I don't get how winning the Derby makes you not as good as you were going in. Its not like the beyer came back really slow, and timeform gave it a good fig. I thought it was a good performance from a very good horse.

No, there were smart people saying outlandish things about him that certainly did not come to fruition in the Derby. The fact that you are saying he didn't handle the track in the Derby is a direct result of that. This is the kind of opinion that indirectly will cause you to lose money unnecessarily, and eventually this could make you less of a racing fan.

The problem is that people get led astray with this kind of silliness. But, hey, at least some of us don't mind playing the bad guy, as long as it helps some people.

RHT2004 · #11 05-04-2015, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, there were smart people saying outlandish things about him that certainly did not come to fruition in the Derby. The fact that you are saying he didn't handle the track in the Derby is a direct result of that. This is the kind of opinion that indirectly will cause you to lose money unnecessarily, and eventually this could make you less of a racing fan.

The problem is that people get led astray with this kind of silliness. But, hey, at least some of us don't mind playing the bad guy, as long as it helps some people.

Maybe its my high opinion of him after the Arkansas Derby that makes me feel like he didn't run his race. That's all I said. I never mentioned the track. I hate all the hype he gets. It makes it hard to want him to do good. This is a horse who broke his maiden in a G1. He is clearly talented. I get that he pulls a lot of good trips, but I believe horses with tactical speed make there own trip. So I cant hold this against him. I read someone saying he has never had to take kick back. Well my response to that is why would he ever have to? I think he is a front runner who can rate. For what its worth I respect your opinion more then most. You mentioned a horse that was over 40-1 on talking horses on Saturday that I gave a 2nd look to because of you. He ran 2nd.

RolloTomasi · #12 05-04-2015, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

This is a horse who broke his maiden in a G1.

Recall that the two horses who finished behind him in the Del Mar Futurity were also maidens at the time. One of them still is.

These are the unmentioned details that keep hype alive.

pointman · #13 05-05-2015, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, there were smart people saying outlandish things about him that certainly did not come to fruition in the Derby. The fact that you are saying he didn't handle the track in the Derby is a direct result of that. This is the kind of opinion that indirectly will cause you to lose money unnecessarily, and eventually this could make you less of a racing fan.

The problem is that people get led astray with this kind of silliness. But, hey, at least some of us don't mind playing the bad guy, as long as it helps some people.

Clearly there is way too much dead weight here to ever get a deal done.

RHT2004 · #14 05-05-2015, 08:16 PM

That was a thread kill.

cakes44 · #15 05-05-2015, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

I'm with you. Some "super horse" would have opened up big time in the stretch. I had AP and won so that was great, maybe not as great as Burch, but count me as less impressed by AP after the Derby than before.

Aly-Sheba · #16 05-05-2015, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.

Aly-Sheba · #17 05-06-2015, 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.

Sorry 38 years, time flies!!

RolloTomasi · #18 05-06-2015, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.

It's uncanny, but from March onwards in their respective 3yo years, American Pharoah's career closely parallels that of War Emblem.

Two facile wins leading up to the Derby; slow-paced merry-go-round Derby; Victor Espinoza aboard...

The only difference is War Emblem ran quite a bit faster.

MaTH716 · #19 05-06-2015, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's uncanny, but from March onwards in their respective 3yo years, American Pharoah's career closely parallels that of War Emblem.

Two facile wins leading up to the Derby; slow-paced merry-go-round Derby; Victor Espinoza aboard...

The only difference is War Emblem ran quite a bit faster.

And paid $43.00 to win.

SundayStar · #20 05-06-2015, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's uncanny, but from March onwards in their respective 3yo years, American Pharoah's career closely parallels that of War Emblem.

Two facile wins leading up to the Derby; slow-paced merry-go-round Derby; Victor Espinoza aboard...

The only difference is War Emblem ran quite a bit faster.

War Emblem never won a race where he didn't go wire to wire. American Pharaoh has won stalking the pace.