Had winner some where in the selections of the last 6 at Belmont, but it was the kind of day where stringing them together for the P6 ($11k) or P4 ($1,600) was a challenge. Was happy with the runs I made because Smart Engagement wasn’t going to be near the top of my 8th race plays no how, and while I liked Giant Mover enough, the 7th was just too deep.

Well ahead for the Holiday Weekend and fun racing coast to coast again today with many stakes live on ‘At the Races’ later. Please remember the fallen this Memorial Day, and keep badly injured Rene Douglas in your thoughts as well…

Talk to you tonight at 4pm on Sirius 126/XM 104…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Eldoktori 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Lemon Shore 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Snowstalker 3-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Marq of Love 7-2 6th

$1 Exacta (4-7) Paid $28.25

9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Relatively Ready 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Scorch the Torch 15-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Piazza Di Spagna 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Pavlov’s Dog 30-1 8th

10th: 116th Metropolitan H. (Gr. I), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

What this edition of the handicap standard lacks in headliners, it makes up for in solid stakes performers looking for a career-defining win..

Most Likely: #11 Bribon 3-1: Tremendous last and typically better 2nd/break.. WON
Best Value: #12 Driven by Success 20-1: Big price on fast NY-bred; Held own in Carter.. 3rd
Next Best: #2 Smooth Air 4-1: Got time after Gr. II GP score and colic scare.. 2nd
Super Add: #8 Mr. Sidney 10-1: Gets chance to show mettle on main; May leap forward.. 11th

$1 Exacta (11-2) Paid $16.10
$1 Trifecta (11-2-12) Paid $159.00

11th: CLM/N2L, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Manitowish Waters 2-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Hint 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Clever Martini 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 High On Candy 10-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-7-11
9: 2-5-6-7-8-10
10: 11
11: 4-5-11

4x6x1x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4-6-10/11-3/4/6/9/13/14) 4 Correct Paid $170.75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

10th (5:29pm): 6th Winning Colors (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #5 Dubai Majesty 2-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Lady Chace 10-1 2nd-DQ’d to 3rd
Next Best: #1 Keep the Peace 5-2 3rd-Up to 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $8.10
$1 Trifecta (5-1-6) Paid $53.10

LONE STAR

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 13th Dallas Turf Cup H. (Gr. III), 3+, 9f-T (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Seaspeak 6-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Red Rock Creek 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Ernesto 6-1 2nd

8th: 13th Valid Expectations, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 P.S.U. Grad 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Wrenice 20-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Pious Ashley 5-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Stealth Cat 6-1 4th

9th: 11th Ouija Board Distaff H. (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Flibberjibit 3-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Superior Storm 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Wasted Tears 20-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Rustic Flame 9-2 5th

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $107.70

10th: 13th Lone Star Park H. (Gr. !!!), 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 It’s a Bird 1-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Z Fortune 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Magnum 3-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Jonesboro 6-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-4
8: 1-2-4-5
9: 1-4-5-6
10: 1-7-8

2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,4/5/4/7) Paid $204.75

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Fire Break 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Magna Cum Laude 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #12 Seven Below 12-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Noble Courage 6-1 4th

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Midnight Crush 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 My Maloof Rocker 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Kicken Vixen 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Pericia Fina 6-1 5th

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 SCR
Best Value: #10 Nene 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Lunch Time 7-2 8th
Super Add: #3 Self Insured 8-1 2nd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Temple City 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Seminole Native 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Fiery Trippi 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Heroi Do Bafra 5-1 6th

9th: 66th Showmaker Mile (Gr. I), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

SCR #4 Ventura

Best Value: #6 Thorn Song 12-1 WON
Most Likely: #2 Whatsthescript 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 U S Ranger 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Hyperbaric 4-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 SCR
Best Value: #13 Candy Coat 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Truly a Delight 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Box Office Star 6-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #7 Domestic Gold 9-2 6th

Very challenging sequence of races.. P6 and P4 both will be difficult to navigate today..

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1
6: 3-6
7: 4-10
8: 2-3-4
9: 2-6
10: 7-9-13-14

1x2x2x3x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-10
8: 2-3-4
9: 2-6-7
10: 7-9-13-14

2x3x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Enjoyed a very strong afternoon of play Saturday with nearly everything working to the good. Lone setback was absense off 4th choice Joey’s Chance on P4 ticket missing $1,600 bonanza, but that frustrator was offset by the $1,635 Super High 5 play in the Hollywood nightcap! After falling short in NY though, the Quad plays got back on track with $792 Arlington and $265 Hollywood hits.

Other niceties on the day included Brass Hat’s crazy 6-1 price ($14.00) in the Louisville H., which was too good to pass up, and the $1,100 superfecta in the Arlington Matron. You needed to box up my P4 uses in the Matron to find that mutuel, which was tripped by 7-1 Euphony whom I tabbed 4th as a Super Add. But the key for me in the race was 42-1 Home’s the Best who rallied belatedly to grab 4th.

Hope you did great! $63k carryover at Belmont today which should be a fun afternoon if the rain stays away…

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 59th Vagrancy (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Any Limit 2-1: Zipped :58.2; Back on fave oval..
Next Best: #4 Game Face 4-5: Can win obviously, but 4-5?
Best Value: #3 Porte Bonheur 3-1: Legit shot on best..

5th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Averymerrymoment 9-5: Moving forward; Fear ‘seconditis’..
Best Value: #4 Driven by Royalty 12-1: Should jump up on proper surface..
Next Best: #9 Refinery Fire 5-1: Passed on 12 hole Thursday; Improving..
Super Add: #6 Kitty’s Wish 10-1: Consistent money-burner always close..

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Beam of Love 7-2: Contessa now 2 for 67; Red alternating efforts..
Next Best: #3 Collegiate 5-2: 3yo $400k Team Valor buy working well for return..
Exotics Use: #5 Bright Star 3-1: Philly maidenbreaker looks ordinary..

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tricky race hinges in no small part on cast members from 4/19 AQU heat won by Ready Formycloseup, (who faded late in the Dame Ellen-Lisa B thriller Thursday). Half a Surprise (2-1), Giant Mover (8-1) and Upper Gulch (8-1) were less than a length apart that day, yet note disparity of early tote on them today…

Most Likely: #2 Gold d’Oro 3-1: Mott miss 9f KEE try was her best yet..
Best Value: #3 Upper Gulch 8-1: Fits well with 4/19 cast; Kelly rolling..
Next Best: #7 Driven Snow 4-1
Exitics Use: #5 Giant Mover 8-1

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Our Golden Dream 4-1: Tad short when 2nd in soph return..
Best Value: #4 Sax in the City 5-1: Carlos sharp operator off break..
Next Best: #10 Paraiba 3-1
Super Add: #7 Smart Engagement 4-1

9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Natural Speed 2-1
Next Best: #4 I’ve Got Speed 5-1
Best Value: #5 Can’t Refuse 15-1
Super Add: #1 Kenta Kun 4-1

10th: MYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Best Value: #6 Lady at the Lake 6-1: Morrison sod mover an alternative in weak group..
Most Likely: #2 Imthequeenofqueens 3-1: Approaching hopelessness; Last try first turf..
Next Best: #8 Nurse Kiki 7-2
Super Add: #1 (POE) Stormie Gray 8-1

<$250 P6 Play:

5: 3-4-6-7-9
6: 1-3
7: 2-3
8: 1
9: 2-4-5
10: 2-6

5x2x2x1x3x2 = 120 x $2 = $240

<$100 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-5-7-8
8: 1-4
9: 2-4-5
10: 2-6-8

5x2x3x3 = $90

Good luck!
Steve

Outrageous holiday weekend of racing action kicks off the summer season Saturday with deep fields and compelling stakes across the map. Arlington has the intense slate with a stakes quad today, while Belmont, Monmouth and Hollywood all commence three day weekends highlighted by quality features. Churchill, Golden Gate, Calder, Philadelphia and Woodbine all have rich events on at least one of their holiday schedules, and Lone Star will draw their 6 stake (3 graded) Monday overnight today.

As discussed all week on “At the Races”, momentum from highly-viewed and loud buzz Preakness has potential to carry over into meat of the sport’s calendar, with the low cost appeal of “A Day at the Races”, highly marketable to an entertainment-hungry public. Do what you can to take advantage and drag friends with you to the oval this weekend! My P4 looks at NY, Chicago and Los Angeles to get things started… Have a safe, enjoyable Memorial Day Weekend!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Important looking Maiden affair with host of fancy price tags and heritages; Storm Flag Flying’s first drop debuts here and Shug told the ATR audience he is progressing nicely though today isn’t necessarily the day..

Most Likely: #6 Ishtarry 9-2: $1MM Shadwell DistHum from KMc; Firing bullets.. 9th
Best Value: #10 SCR
Next Best: #11 Intrepid 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Strasbourg 20-1 2nd

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Token Special 4-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Wishful Star 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Fiona Freud 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Green Harbor 10-1 5th

9th: 51st Sheepshead Bay (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Mushka 4-1: $10 inviting on Mott miss that is competitive again.. 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Criticism 9-5: Albertrani mare has aced 3 of last 4 graded tries.. WON
Next Best: #1 Backseat Rhythm 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Venetian Causeway 15-1 6th

10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Victorious Leader 7-2
Best Value: #3 Longing for Malibu 12-1
Next Best: #10 Compliance Officer 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Joey’s Chance 15-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-6-11
8: 1-7
9: 1-3-5
10: 3-5-10

4x2x3x3 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

10th: 72nd Louisville H. (Gr. III), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Gangbuster 10-1: Rested since KEE stake demolition.. 6th
Most Likely: #7 Brass Hat 4-1: Borel can’t leave him with too much to do.. WON
Next Best: #8 Spice Route 8-5: That price? 12f with Bridge? No thanks.. 2nd
Super Add: #5 Always First 5-1: Can honor sire Barathea who passed this week.. 7th

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 2 American 1000 Guineas, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Consequence 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Hot Cha Cha 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Afternoon Stroll 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Obsequious 7-2 6th

9th: 73rd Arlington Matron (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Indescribable 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Home’s the Best 20-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Kiss With a Twist 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Euphony 6-1 WON

.50 Tri Spot Play: 9-10 with 2-7-9-10 with 2-3-4-7-8-9-10 (2x3x5 = 30 x .50 = $15.00)

10th: 57th Hanshin Cup (Gr. III), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Stonehouse 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Vacation 5-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Cherokee Artist 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Amazing Results 5-1 4th

11th: 75th Arlington Classic, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Giant Oak, if close to his best, can muscle this group. If you take that approach, load up under him with the big prices as all have a license to run well here… Fascinating wagering opportiunity.

Most Likely: #3 Giant Oak 2-1 WON
Best Value: #8 SCR
Next Best: #10 Proceed Bee 20-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Poltergeist 15-1 9th

.50 Tri Spot Play: 3 with 5-6-10 with ALL (1x3x7 = 21 x .50 = $10.50)

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-7-8
9: 2-7-9-10
10: 1-2-4-5-7-8
11: 3

3x4x6x1 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (5,7/7/5/3) Paid $792.80

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Bad Boy 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Tent 5-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Scott’s Spirit 7-2 5th
Super Add: #13 Kilderry 3-1 2nd

7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Valiant Effort 3rd
Next Best: #4 Got Free 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Nikki’sgoldensteed 8-1 WON

8th: 58th Milady H. (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Zenyatta 3-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Life is Sweet 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Champagne Eyes 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Allicansayiswow 20-1 3rd

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Dreamalong 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 First Grade 5-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Storm the Church 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Lanai 5-1 5th
High 5 Play: #11 Starzig 8-1 4th

$2 Exact 5 (7-6-1-11-5) Paid $1,635.60

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-7
7: 1-3-4
8: 7-9
9: 1-5-6-7

3x3x2x4 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (2/1/4,6,8,9/7) Paid $265.30

But if I had been truly clever, this could have been a spot for a very big payday, and I missed it. Given my affection for an overlay like Gamblin Fever, it would certainly have been a good spot to ‘press’ in the P4 play by using him with a narrow group of likely winners the rest of the way, or at least in the 6th-8th Pick 3… Because make no mistake, Pinckney Hill and Flying Dixie in the 7th and 8th were two rock solid favorite types and overwhelming ‘likely’ winners. The P3 starting in the 6th and ending with them paid a tremendous $190.75, and while I had nice W-PL money on $22 Gamblin Fever, a $20 straight P3 with him and the next two would have obviously been worth $3,800.

My mentality is generally to ‘live’ with a live multi-race ticket while pressing within the race via W-PL bets and/or exotics, but I recognized immediately when Pinckney Hill won easily, that I had missed a big chance for a memorable payday. Anyway, just some random post-raceday thoughts… As you may have heard in the call today from “Lou from NY”, having a good view of the races means you need to get paid. Hope you did well! P6 carryover to attack Thursday with another set of fun races from P.J. Campo.

Do need to take a moment to convey sadness over the horrible incident before the 5th race Wednesday when Mr. Jerkens’ City On Line dropped Jose Lezcano and ran into the Belmont paddock to collide with the Secretariat statue. The City Zip 4yo owned by Our Stromboli Farm had to be destroyed.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

NOTE: #13 Riptide (7-2) very dangerous if somehow drawing in..

Most Likely: #4 Flying Dismount 2-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Youbethecan 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Yazamaan 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Indymine 12-1 3rd

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

SCR: #4 & #6

Most Likely: #2 Crema d’Oro 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Super Child 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Rocker Mom 6-1 6th

6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Reeley Misbehaving 8-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Caterina’s Terms 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Love for a Price 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Picnic Rock 5-1 8th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Quisom 15-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Dame Ellen 6-1 WON
Next Best: #1 (POE) Candlemaker 3-1 10th
Super Add: #5 America’s Dreaming 10-1 4th

8th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 9f (DD)

Albertrani, who’s been sending them out particularly ready for months, gave Unbridled’s Heart an appropriate 11 weeks after the gut-wrencher comeback beat he took at the hands of his own barnmate (!) Ea. Ea has subsequently gone on to place in the $500k Charles Town Classic and Gr. III Schaefer. Today’s $1,000,000 favorite has everything going his way from a pace standpoint, and while he pretty well has to be singled for budgetary reasons in tough P4/P6 skiens, he ‘feels’ vulnerable, and Stevil has been announced as a new gelding. Recall as well that the 1 for 14 Zito runner posted that lone tally on his sole try this oval…

Most Likely: #6 Unbridled’s Heart 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Stevil 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 American Dance 5-1 WON

9th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Artistic Talent 5-2 DH-2nd
Best Value: #7 Luck 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Fourth Chapter 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Toga Tiger 20-1 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-8
5: 2-3
6: 2
7: 1-4-11
8: 6
9: 5-6-7-9

3x2x1x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-5
7: 1-4-5
8: 6
9: 2-3-5-6-7-9

4x3x1x6 = $72

BELMONT PARK (5/20) RESULTS

$1 Pick 4 (2/5,6,7,10/3/9) Paid $455.50