SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MCLM/$20k, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Challenging sequence that could approach $2,000,000 is complicated enough before factoring in wet weather that has strafed Los Angeles this week. Seems like there’s a window for this afternoon’s action but knowing that the track has been sealed tight for days leads to conclusion that speed will be very hard to catch. Watch the early double (6f and 1m) to try and get a feel for the surface..

Opener appears like cheap MDN claimer at a glance, but these look far from hopeless on closer inspection. 1-6-7 the focus of most tickets. With a few stretchouts involved, pace looks honest at the least. Miz Graycee came back with the Waiver Clause last which says Hofmans believed she was worth keeping and decent effort plus 6f bullet (1:11.4) says today’s the day..

Most Likely: #7 Miz Graycee 5-2
Next Best: #6 Appealing Lady 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 Bolt Up 3-1
Super Add: #2 Rodeo Drive Diva 12-1

4th: Cal-MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)

State bred 3yo’s and not an easy set to decipher given stretchouts (1-2-3-4-5-7) and surface changes (1-3). Top three below are separated by about 2L on figs..

Most Likely: #1 Touched by Autism 5-2
Next Best: #2 Got Tobe Awesome 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Speedin With Eddie 7-2
Super Add: #8 And Then Some 6-1

5th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

For purposes of ticket austerity, Ponder Lea one of the horses in the sextet that has a distinct advantage over field and appears highly probable with effort close to last pair..

Most Likely: #1 Ponder Lea 2-1
Next Best: #6 Zeekid 7-2
Exotics Use: #7 Audra 3-1
Super Add: #3 West Mid 8-1

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Amberella seems well spotted by D’Amato off N2L win for $12.5k, but still needs a bit more, especially if Lopez tries to wire. Big question here is what to do with giveaway dropper Backintheacademy?

Most Likely: #1 Amberella 7-2
Best Value: #3 Vegas Bound 6-1
Next Best: #8 Bayonet 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Backintheacademy 4-1

7th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (DD)

Headscratching feature where nothing short of ‘all’ will allow you to rest easy..

Best Value: #6 Awesome Luck 8-1
Next Best: #5 Sharaun 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Zuzu’s Petals 8-1
Super Add: #14 West Coast Storm 6-1

8th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Midnight Lady 4-1
Next Best: #9 Mybabykim 2-1
Best Value: #5 Fiesta Express 15-1
Exotics Use: #10 Warrensdollarsigns 4-1
Hi-5 Play: #8 Sea Side Story 12-1

P6 Grid:

3: 7 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
4: 1-2 (A), 4-8 (B), 6 (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), 6 (C)
6: 1 (A), 3-8 (B), 5-6-9 (C)
7: 5-6 (A), 1-14 (B), 4-11-12 (C)
8: 12 (A), 9 (B), 5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x1x3x4x2 = 196 x $2 = $192
Full (A/B/C): $208

P4 Grid:

5: 1 (A), 6-7 (B), 2-3-5-6 (C)
6: 1 (A), 3-8 (B), 4-5-6-9 (C)
7: 5-6 (A), 1-14 (B), 4-11-12 (C)
8: 9-12 (A), 5-10 (B), 1-3-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x $0.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $64 (With $1 All A’s Play)

Good luck!
Steve

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Cal-MSW, 4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Wide open start to this sequence with lightly raced types facing off against some hard luck career MDN’s..

Most Likely: #4 At Ease 9-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Vow to Be Tops 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Aren Vaugn 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Diablo Caballero 7-2 9th

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Bookended pair may be enough to get by here with Dorf returnee inside and ideal stalking Glatt colt outside..

Best Value: #7 Street Vision 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 I Will Score 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Rockin Bayou 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Iron Rob 5-1 6th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Faithfully 3-1: Bejarano for Baffert.. 4th
Next Best: #9 Rockantharos 5-2: Bypassed Sat. sprint stake.. 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Dreamy Art 7-2 8th
Super Add: #2 Edgy Girl 6-1 6th

7th: 49th Monrovia (G2), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Nice group for this including aggressive spotting by Delacour for return of Ageless. You may need to believe that the Lael team wouldn’t come here without a loaded weapon, because if it’s not going to be Ageless, it could be almost any of the rest. Not a whole lot of pace signed on here..

Most Likely: #11 Ageless 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Illuminant 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Prize Exhibit 5-1 WON ($17.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Shrinking Violet 4-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-6) Paid $48.00
$1 Trifecta (5-6-11) Paid $129.70
$1 Superfecta (5-6-11-8) Paid $955.80

8th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (DD)

Treacherous spot late in the game with a moderately talented group of Cal-breds mixing it up out of any number of scenarios. Carava’s Lambo Luxx may get a very comfortable up close, stalk/go trip that sees him tough to catch in the lane..

Best Value: #7 Lambo Luxx 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Rolo Tamaci 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Gutsy Ruler 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 One More Roll 10-1 2nd

9th:CLM, 4+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Tough back end of P6 ends with brutally competitive $50k claimer. Pace looks honest to quick-ish. Think you’ll need as many as you can afford to close out and multis..

Best Value: #6 Tiz Dynamic 15-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Hobbits Hero 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Yes Yes Yes 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Husband’s Folly 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Tattenham 9-2 4th

P6 Grid:

4: 3-4 (A), 5-8 (B), 6-13 (C)
5: 7 (A), 1 (B), 2-5 (C)
6: 1 (A), 9 (B), 2-4 (C)
7: 11 (A), – (B), 1-5-6-8 (C)
8: 7 (A), 5-9 (B), 1-2-3-4-6-8 (C)
9: 6 (A), 10 (B), 1-2-4-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x1x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
Full (A/B/C): $190

P4 Grid:

6: 1-9 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)
7: 11 (A), 1-5-6-8 (B), 10 (C)
8: 7 (A), 5-9 (B), 1-2-3-4-6-8 (C)
9: 6-10 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x5 = 150 x $0.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $70 (With $1 All A’s Play)

I hope everyone is enjoying the holidays and had a successful year playing the horses. I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that for those of us that were too young to appreciate the remarkable Triple Crown exploits of the 70’s, 2015 was as dramatic, historic and singularly enjoyable season as we’ve experienced. It was a special privilege to be in position to try and chronicle it for ATR listeners and I’m not sure how easy it will be to surpass the year’s highlights. My position is that the game remains far more vital and vibrant than its’ loudest critics want you to believe and I think this past year went a long way towards confirming that. Let’s build on these past 12 months and make 2016 another big success. Warm wishes to Derby Trailers, ATR listeners, Dee Tee partners, industry stakeholders and their families for a bountiful New Year filled with health and contentment..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Superbly matched set of state bred fillies. Pace should be honest or more..

Best Value: #7 Regina Christina 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Champagne Ruby 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Irish Whisper 2-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Touching My Toes 5-2 3rd

7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Another fun, restricted company assembly. Geaux Mets has won for everybody that saddles and may be poised to keep rolling in 2nd start for Rudy..

Best Value: #11 Geaux Mets 5-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Gypsum Johnny 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Commandante 10-1 4th
Super Add: #12 Mighty Zealous 20-1 5th

8th: 37th Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Terrific cast for this final stake of ’15 in NY including the ’15 winner Big Business and ’13 hero Saratoga Snacks. (And as it happens, ’14 Robb victor Commandante runs in the 7th!). With Snacks and Big Business, Good Luck Gus the only other p[articipant with a win over the Inner Track. Ostrolenka is the pacesetter here with Snacks likely setting up shop just off his flank with Angel Arroyo back aboard. Big Business will visit the lead pair first in the stretch with Empire Dreams arriving later. Really none of these 8 signed on can be easily eliminated..

Best Value: #8 Big Business 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Saratoga Snacks 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Empire Dreams 5-2 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #4 Ostrolenka 6-1 8th

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m

No shortage of pace involved here..

Best Value: #4 Best Play 10-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #7 Inca Saint 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Special Agent 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Cosmic Coincidence 4-1 6th

P4 Grid:

6: 1-7 (A), 3-4 (B), 5-8 (C)
7: 11 (A), 1-9 (B), 3-4-5-12 (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3-6-7 (C)
9: 4 (A), 5-7 (B), 8-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $62 (With $1 All A’s Play)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1/2,4,8,11/1/4) Paid $125.75

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Crazily well-matched group with entire field only a length apart on figs..

Most Likely: #6 Ice Cream Truck 7-2 –
Best Value: #3 Muchos Besos 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Noble Kent 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Carlsbad Mountain 3-1 2nd

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Some class to this set with 7 trying 9f for the first time and the other three unsuccessful in their prior attempts at the trip..

Most Likely: #4 Captain Tim 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Little Curlin 6-1 WON ($23.20)
Next Best: #5 Tribal Jewel 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Grazen Sky 4-1 2nd

7th: 21st Eddie Logan, 2yo, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Path of David 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #2 Arabian Leopard 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Trust Your Gut 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Imperious One 5-1 2nd

8th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

After 3 tricky events, expect many multi-race plays to lean heavily on D’Amato and Adair..

Most Likely: #9 Adair 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Xerxes 8-1 WON ($16.80)
Next Best: #4 Spirit World 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #5 Captain Carchy 4-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Financial 6-1 –

P4 Grid:

5: 3-6 (A), 2-5 (B), 1-4-7 (C)
6: 3-4 (A), 5-8 (B), 6-9 (C)
7: 7 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-9 (C)
8: 9 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $55 (With $1 All A’s Play)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/3/7,11/6) Paid $888.30

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Slightly tricky opener to $80k C/O sequence which centers around 50% Baffert-Shah dropper Exposure SCR’D who may get company on the front end. Can’t fault those siding with; Can’t fault those standing against..

Most Likely: #2 My Silver Cat 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #4 Secret Appeal 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Missy Mouse 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Racing for Chasen 10-1 4th

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Will try to tiptoe through leg with top tabs Kadesha and Shysheisnot, but several other class droppers rate a look including Petey pacesetter Odisseia, Gaines nibbler Sister of Mercy, invading Jacobson NY-bred Upstate Bird and closing Housemaker from Steady Eddie Truman..

Most Likely: #2 Kadesha 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Shysheisnot 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Sister of Mercy 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Housemaker 9-2 9th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Can’t assume last out mile winner Formally Wild wires this group given sprint speed presence of Triunfo (especially) and Saint Prado (possibly). Other turnbacks (1-2-6) and class drops (5-8) make this cheap affair plenty treacherous..

Most Likely: #1 Carlot Cowboy 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #3 Formally Wild 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Ultimate Luck 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Pat the Bear 4-1 8th

6th: 12th Kalookan Queen, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

There’s a lot of speed lining up here and favored Sunday Rules doesn’t ‘need’ the lead. Baltas closer Kiss at Midnight feels dangerous and well-suited for opportunity to pick them up late..

Best Value: #1 Kiss at Midnight 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sunday Rules 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Tara’s Tango 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Dancingalltheway 4-1 8th

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Stakes quality ALW field and though thoroughly competitive, inclined to stand with Spirit of Ten. Cal bred started improving when nabbed by Glatt and has continued forward with D’Amato committing her to turf full time. Should sit behind speed to her right and gets first run at nice number..

Most Likely: #7 Spirit of Ten 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Achiever’s Legacy 12-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Causeway Carolyn 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Paulina’s Love 3-1 WON ($4.00)

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Creeme Run Wild 7-2 6th
Next Best: #1 She’s a Warrior 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Dreamarcher 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Award It 4-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Deeds Not Words 12-1 5th

P6 Grid:

3: 2 (A), 4-5 (B), 1-3-7 (C)
4: 2 (A), 8 (B), 3-5-6-7 (C)
5: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-6-9 (C)
6: 1 (A), 5 (B), 2 (C)
7: 7 (A), – (B), 4-10 (C)
8: 5 (A), 1 (B), 3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
Full (A/B/C): $170

P4 Grid:

5: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-6-9 (C)
6: 1-5 (A), 2 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
7: 7-10 (A), 4-8 (B), 3 (C)
8: 5 (A), 1-9 (B), 3-4-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x $0.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $80

Very irksome miss in the Aqueduct C/O P5 Friday which returned nearly $1,000, as decision to cut budget from $136 to $96 proved fateful. Initial full approach utilizing complete A-B-C plays included Quibbler as an A in the first leg, but in trying to keep the investment under $100, I crippled a backup ticket that had a successful A-A-A-A-C punch.

This topic gets right back to the conversation I had with Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR where we broached the budget issues on P6’s. When constructing plays in the analysis, I never want to suggest outlandish budgets that will be a stretch for the average player and a $100 cap seemed right and reasonable for this opportunity.

The A-B-C plays did catch the P4 for $235 which covered the multi outlays, but nailing the P5 is the difference in making the day top notch as opposed to the trading of dollars. Finding $10 Singsong and $21 Core Portfolio in the 3rd and 4th provided some incoming as well. Was a fun scenario to attack and I hope everyone did well. Nice assortment of action around the country today..

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Hills’ Malibu Action was nipped in sharp debut and certainly looms as one to beat, but Kenneally turnback Hot Squad plenty eligible with firsters from Brown and Violette logical upon introduction. Wild Impulse (8-1) from Linda Rice shows steady gains with experience, but needs to make up 3 lengths on the favorite out of last. Iswear I’ll Behave (15-1) was pricey ($120k) for a Gone Astray and appears tuned for bow..

Most Likely: #5 Malibu Action 7-5
Next Best: #9 Hot Squad 3-1
Best Value: #7 Moon Over a Beauty 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 My Man Sam 6-1

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Too much pace here, (with 2 adding blinkers), for back half of field not to impact..

Most Likely: #4 Candid Desire 10-1
Next Best: #5 Cort 7-2
Best Value: #3 Mello Groove 30-1
Exotics Use: #7 Thnxtomyuncle 12-1

8th: 110th Queens County, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tommy Macho 2-1
Best Value: #6 Financial Modeling 6-1
Next Best: #3 Kid Cruz 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Mylute 4-1

9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 2yo-F, 1m-70y

Ugly bunch o’ coconuts..

Most Likely: #9 Corinthian’s Joy 2-1
Next Best: #7 Sheyn Vi Di Levone 5-2
Best Value: #1 Ditch Em 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 Roaring Vixen 8-1

P4 Grid:

6: 5-9 (A), 4-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3 (B), 6-7-9 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
9: 9 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x $0.50 = $72

FAIR GROUNDS

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 10 Diliberto Mewmorial, 4+, 8.5f-T (Black Gold P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lewis Vale 8-1
Next Best: #7 Lookout 4-1
Best Value: #8 Potomac River 8-1
Exotics Use: #1 Regally Ready 3-1

9th: 51st Tiffany Lass, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Please Explain 9-2
Best Value: #8 Sweet Basil 6-1
Next Best: #9 Cash Control 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Emmajestic 5-1

10th: 51st Tenacious, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Eagle 4-1
Next Best: #3 Ride On Curlin 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Freestyler 3-1
Super Add: #6 Treasury Bill 5-1

P3 Grid:

8: 4 (A), 7-8 (B), 1 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 6-9 (B), 5 (C)
10: 2-3 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2 = $24

Good luck!
Steve