P6 turned out as advertised and indeed we have a double carry into Thursday with $170k starting another rough sextet. Weather indicates that we will likely be OFF the turf today with big weekend looming. P4 yesterday returned outrageous $13,850, and was not impossible if you were willing to spend and be creative. Karakorum winner of the 6th that tripped many P6 plays was on the tabs as a “Super Add” on the basis of two troubled starts to begin his career. Del Carroll’s Toga Tiger “Exotics Use” in the 7th was hardly a stunner at $10, and Solo Piano had to be on tickets in the feature. Finally, Sonny’s the One was totally overlaid at 14.to-1 in the nightcap after scratches of Merlin Circle and Api Mohkat. 

BELMONT PARK

OFF THE TURF — POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF: 5-9-3

5th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Jaystone 6-1
Most Likely: #9 Captain’s Sword 7-2
Next Best: #8 Social Escalade 5-1
Super Add: #1 Chernobyl’s Hero 6-1

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF: 6-1a-10-8

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF: 11-9-5-8

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Keep Laughing 3-1 
Best Value: #1 (POE) I Ain’t No Saint 12-1
Next Best: #2 Shoptate 4-1

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

OFF THE TURF: 12-2b-5-10

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-5-9
5: 6-9
6: 1-6-8-10
7: 9-11
8: 2-3
9: 12

3x2x4x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6-8-10
7: ALL
8: 1-2-3
9: 12

4x6x3x1 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Caught $434 P4 Sunday at HollyPark which was good for covering P6 try that fell falling agonizingly short of the $7,800 payday. Had the six pack of winners on tabs, but my third choices in third and fourth legs, both chalk, were left off the 3x2x2x2x2x3 play. Hope you did well.

Belmont Week kicks off with a $48k carryover Wednesday, but it is a murderously treacherous sequence. Could go chalky, could double carry! “At the Races” LIVE from Belmont the next three days!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Willsboro Point 7-2
Best Value: #3 Fairway Drive 4-1
Next Best: #8 Fuhrever Dancing 3-1
Super Add: #6 Foufa’s Warrior 8-1

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Granted Tiger 7-2
Next Best: #2 Lost Without You 2-1
Best Value: #8 Pretty Elusive 12-1

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Client Eight 8-5
Best Value: #5 Offensive Attack 5-1
Next Best: #7 Coach Fruscio 3-1
Super Add: #4 Sergant Karakorum 12-1

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Crazy Thing 5-2
Best Value: #6 French Song 15-1
Next Best: #3 Fivehailmarys 8-5
Exotics Use: #5 Toga Tiger 6-1

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Forest Trail 3-1
Next Best: #6 Blitzen Too 2-1
Best Value: #7 Solo Piano 4-1
Super Add: #1 Sonic Sound 8-1

9th: CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Here I Go Again 2-1
Best Value: #3 Merlin Circle 12-1
Next Best: #7 Brooker D 8-1
Super Add: #6 Api Mohkat 5-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-6-8-9
5: 2-3
6: 3
7: 3-6-7
8: 2-6
9: 3-11

4x2x1x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5
7: 3-6-7
8: 1-2-6-7
9: 3-7-11

2x3x4x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Took wince-inducing losses in anchor legs of both P4’s Saturday after negotiating largely-logical opening troikas. Tagg nightcap winner at Belmont was an especially dumb omission given trainer angles that deserved attention. Churchill 11th runaway was OK as a contender on paper, and Borel miraculously continues to move horses up as a matter of course. The miscues were costly too, as Churchill’s .50 quad brought back $484.40 in a sequence where the $2 parlay equaled $845, or about the P4. New York’s parlay was $337 and the 4 returned $591 ($2). Hope you did OK despite my inability to close out the skiens.

All grass P4 at Belmont today and a $125,000 carryover at Hollywood to consider…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 4th NY Stallion-Spectacular Bid, NYB-3yo, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Uncle T Seven 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1e C. Martin entry 12-1 10th/11th
Next Best: #5 Tall Poppi 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Early Response 7-2 5th

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #5 Southern Splendor 6-1 3rd
Most Consider: #10 Winloc’s Big D 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Mr. Petersson 6-1 4th

8th: 3rd New York Stallion-Cupecoy’s Joy, NYB-3yo F, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Wild Awake 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Seek On 6-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Mother Russia 5-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Hanna Can Fly 15-1 6th

9th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dancing Forever 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Baletti 10-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Prince Rahy 10-1 5th

10th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #8 Cagey Girl 5-1
Best Value: #11 Higher Incentive 20-1
Next Best: #9 Catty Madeline 4-1
Super Add: #2b SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-10
8: 2-5-8-11
9: 1-7
10: 8-9-11

3x4x2x3 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Necessary Evil 7-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Laura’s Pleasure 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Magic Yodeler 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Ghost Shadow 5-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Mi Sueno 4-1 2nd

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Woodland Flood 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Nima’s Pad 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Cavanal 5-2 WON
Super Add: #1 Mr. Big 5-1 6th

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Mort Robbins 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #5 Itlee 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Job Boss 7-2 WON
Super Add: #11 SCR

7th: 58th Honeymoon (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Well Monied 3-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Century Park 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Acting Lady 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Pride Dancer 9-2 9th

8th: MSW, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Unionize 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Margarita Shot 6-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Hidden Blessing 7-2 7th
Super Add: #1e Zayat entry 5-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 No Grande 9-2 WON
Best Value: #6 Stormy Game 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Senor Afortunado 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Bob Benoit 10-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #12 Treadwell 8-1 6th

$1 Exacta (13-5) Paid $39.90
$1 Trifecta (13-5-9) Paid $230.00
$1 Superfecta (13-5-9-6) Paid $1,221.10

<$300 P6 Play:

4: 3-5-8
5: 3-8
6: 5-6
7: 1-9
8: 2-5
9: 5-6-13

3x2x2x2x2x3 = 144 x $2 = $288

<$100 P4 Play:

6: 5-6-12
7: 1-3-7-8-9
8: 2-5
9: 5-6-13

3x5x2x3 = $90

$1 Pick 4 (1/3/8/11/12-9-5-13) 4 Correct Paid $434.00

Had the right structure at Belmont Friday to be in position to score going 3x1x6x4, but “chalked out” in the second half to basically get refunded $80.50 on the $72 investment. Given the scratches from the off the turf affairs, probably would have been wise to pare down the play or press the likeliest scenario, but I freely admit to being intimidated by the 6 horse feature won by Frankel’s ‘obvious’ 4-5 horse. She looked vulnerable to me on the comeback, with at least three of the other five seemingly as fast. No matter… Plenty of fun racing Saturday with P4’s at NY & KY featuring quality stakes. Hope you did well Friday.

Want to ‘run’ this P4 chat from Friday again today since I didn’t post it until very late Friday morning at the ATR website and not at all on the front page of Derby Trail.

Being in position to benefit from an upset worked in my favor Thursday when #12 (AE draw-in) Becky’s Exchange made her turf debut a winner at 21-1. The big price tripped $1,247 worth of P4 action on the $72 play thanks to the dead heat in the opening leg. Whether the winner was overlooked due to her main track form or being Also Eligible, as a daughter of Exchange Rate, whose progeny win 15% of their grass bows, she had every right to improve against an ordinary field.

As mentioned above, just getting in position to hit a lucrative P4 like Thursday’s is half the battle, and you cannot find the big payoffs without overlay horses on your tickets. Juxtapose Thursday versus two recent examples: May 23, when Joey’s Chance (my Super Add choice) was left off the ticket and a $1,600 score was missed, and May 25 when Manitowish Waters (Live to $170 payoff) held off Hint (Live to $1,700 payoff). Thursday’s payday was realized because you included an outsider that was a possible winner on breeding versus a suspect group.

Similarly on Monday, Hint was a horse that had a legitimate win chance and came agonizing close. He could have won and delivered the big return, just as even money Warm Springs Girl could have beaten Beck’s Exchange Thursday and quashed the P4 down to $100. Remember that the reason you are playing a multi-race sequence is to specifically find horses like Joey’s Chance (14-1), Hint (13-1) and Becky’s Exchange (21-1) because their presence in a P4 or P3 are instrumental in the bonanza overpays in the skiens.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: NYB-MSW, 3+. 5.5f (P4, P3, SS, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Hero Figure 3-1: Serpe 2nd timer (21%; $7.37); Post no bargain..
Best Value: #8 William Thomas 5-1: Showed speed in fall bow; Working hot..
Next Best: #1 Personal Shopper 7-2: Money burner adds blinks..
Super Add: #9 Livin Large 4-1: Got bet in problematic first start..

8th: The McKayMacKenna, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very curious listed stake with potential red herrings everywhere you look… Question soundness of #2 La Hernanda who was DQ’d at Tampa last when ‘boring out badly’ and has barely worked since. Mott 4yo (#6 Scolara) owns ‘class edge’, but has won once in last 8 starts, and in FL restricted company to boot… I may be all wet, but I’m looking elsewhere in-race and spreading in the multis…

Best Value: #1 Stormy Relations 15-1: Likes cut in turf; Saves ground; Race 2 back can win this..
Most Likely: #8 Pastel Gal 4-1: 5yo Tagg mare needs a pace to chase..
Next Best: #3 Missvinski 15-1: Note that Mott has had time with her now..
Super Add: #5 With Flying Colors 12-1: My Flag daughter finally on the improve..

9th: Sands Point (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD,)

Note that Angel Penna is in the midst of a remarkable season and sends a $700k Dynaformer (#3 Warm Shower, 15-1) who looks like she doesn’t belong. Point being, if Penna is running her, she probably belongs…

Most Likely: #4 Gozzip Girl 9-5: Gives 4# while looking simply better than these..
Next Best: #7 Magical Affair 2-1: Matz miss new gal on grass; Needs pace target..
Best Value: #1 Bluegrass Princess 4-1: Close to choice at Hallandale; Front end threat..

10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Wide open..

Most Likely: #1e Clement entry 2-1
Best Value: #10 Leoroel 20-1
Next Best: #7 Spanish Art 7-2
Super Add: #4 Boots Ahead 15-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Best way to approach this set appears to be hoping Gozzip Girl is reliable in the feature..

7: 8-10
8: 1-2-3-5-6-8
9: 4
10: 1-3-4-6-7-10

2x6x1x6 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 35th Dogwood (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Luster 5-2
Best Value: #3 Affirmed Truth 8-1
Next Best: #2 Hightap 5-1
Super Add: #9 Lady’s Laughter 7-2

9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Keertana 5-2
Best Value: #9 Kiss Mine 15-1
Next Best: #5 Satin Thunder 5-1
Super Add: #10 Cat Onthe Town 12-1

10th: 21st Aristides (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Bold Start 9-2
Best Value: #3 Vicarian 6-1
Next Best: #7 Premium Wine 6-1
Super Add: #1 Early Return 15-1

11th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Do Drop In 4-1
Best Value: #2 Doctor Hall 12-1
Next Best: #11 Lemon Drop Magic 9-2
Exotics Use: #5 Bk’s Clearanceisle 10-1
High 5 Play: #8 Almighty Adversary 30-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5
9: 2-9
10: 1-3-4-5-6-7-9-11
11: 2-7-11

3x2x8x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Enjoyed a strong day of play Memorial Day Monday and hope you did well… Very interesting and tricky P4 at Belmont today with some $20 range horses distinctly possible. Weather forecast slightly iffy, but rain not expected until later in the day.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Hoist the Gala 4-1 WON-DH
Best Value: #1a (POE) Deb’s Roof 10-1 WON-DH
Next Best: #7 Living Out a Dream 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 El Borracho 3-1 7th

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $11.40
$1 Exacta (2-1) Paid $12.20
$1 Trifecta (1-2-7) Paid $34.25
$1 Trifecta (2-1-7) Paid $36.00

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #6 Weekend Action (Original Best Value selection)

Most Likely: #2 Mask and Wig 7-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Sammy’s Toy 8-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Chinese Whisper 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Perfect Precision 15-1 8th

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Karakorum Fugitive 7-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Vladimira 12-1
Next Best: #2 Gattinara 10-1

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

SCR: #11 Quonata; #5 Super Child

Most Likely: #9 Warm Springs Girl 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #1a Sarah’s Sally 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Becky’s Exchange 20-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Crafty Gem 20-1 4th

$1 Exacta (12-9) Paid $64.00
$1 Trifecta (12-9-1) Paid $332.50
$1 Superfecta (12-9-1-7) Paid $1,735.50

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1–2-7
7: 2-8-10
8: 5-6
9: 1-9-7-12

3x3x2x4 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (1,2/2/5/12) Paid $623.50 x 2 = $1,247.00

Good luck!
Steve