Couldn’t find Proctor’s ‘other’ horse to close out Churchill All-Stakes P4, but was pleased to get on board Macho Again, whom I flogged all week on ATR, for the Foster. Belmont late quad action was complicated by off/turf in the 7th and 10th, but I wasn’t coming up with Masala as a winner in the 9th no matter how hard I looked at the race. Hope you did OK. Carryover at Elmont today of $53k, with main track listed as fast and the 7th and 10th again listed as off the soft turf courses. 5th, 6th and 8th still on for what looks like a challenging sequence.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P6, P3, DD Super)

Most Likely: #5 Paraiba 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Our Golden Dream 6-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Corey’s Coming 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Reeley Misbehaving 4-1 7th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 All Bets Off 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #5 Dressed to Win 9-5 5th
Next Best: #3 Heir Encore 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Graphite Halo 10-1 6th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Super Shape 6-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Cat On the Line 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3c (POE) Leo 2-1 4th

8th: 25th Poker (Gr. III), 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Kip Deville 4-5 4th
Best Value: #1 Sailor’s Cap 10-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Operation Red Dawn 5-1 5th

9th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Let’s Fly Away 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Pretty Elusive 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Dattts Lady Di 3-1 WON

10th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Big Brownie 6-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Vaughndidit 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Luna Charm 4-1 WON
Super Add: #1a Saarlandisourland 4-1

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-4-5-6
6: 1-5
7: 1-3-5
8: 6
9: 3-5
10: 7-10

4x2x3x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5
8: 1-6
9: 1-3-5
10: 1-7-10-12

3x2x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 (1-1-1-12) Paid $533.55

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES 

7th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 #7 Call Tiger 4-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Bullara 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 King Rush 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 (AE) The Zipster 10-1 WON

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Classic Impact 12-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Suite Ernie B 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Tenacious Greg 7-2 WON
Super Add: #4 Dos Hombres 10-1 5th

9th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Top It 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Gridiron 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Nowhere to Hide 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Long Jump 8-1 5th

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #1A (POE) Tall Poppi 8-5 WON
Best Value: #2e Duggan entry 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Theartofcompromise 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Triste Doble Q 20-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-7
8: 3-4-5-8
9: 3-7
10: 1-2-6-7

2x4x2x4 = $64

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Jefferson Cup (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 El Crespo 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Jake Will Gallop 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 No Inflation 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Florentino 3-1 WON

8th: Northern Dancer (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Warrior’s Reward 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Successful Dan 7-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Gresham 10-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Omniscent 9-2 3rd

9th: Fleur De Lis (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Miss Isella 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Distinctive Dixie 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Santa Teresita 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Swift Temper 8-1 2nd

10th: Stephen Foster H. (Gr. I), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Macho Again 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #3 Einstein 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Researcher 4-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Arson Squad 4-1 5th

11th: Regret (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Hot Cha Cha 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 SCR
Next Best: #3 Rena 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Banker’s Choice 9-2 5th
High 5 Play: #2 The Best Day Ever 8-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3
9: 2-3-4-8
10: 2-3-4
11: 2-3-[4/SCR]-5-6-7

2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

CALDER RACE COURSE

4th: MSW, 2yo, 4.5f — SPOT PLAY

#11-AE SCRATCHED THANK U PHILLIPPE (6-1): Wolfson trainee working sharp for debut; May be special and wins if drawing in..

MONMOUTH PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 2nd Monmouth, 3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Strike a Deal 4-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Banrock 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Proudinsky 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Grand Couturier 7-2 5th

PHILADELPHIA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 3rd Jostle, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Saarlight 3-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Northern Belle 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Missunitednations 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Bold Union 6-1 6th

DELAWARE PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: Rooney Memorial, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #5 SCR
Next Best: #10 SCR
Super Add: #1 SCR

Good luck!
Steve

Belmont P6 was too tough to tame Wednesday producing a $32k Carryover, but aggressive posture in the P4 turned out to be unnecessary. Modestly-priced and logical winners paraded through the sequence with Coal Play’s win in the feature, where I tried a single, the difference in the beat. Concept of the 5x3x1x5 play wasn’t half bad though, as 15-1 Our Montana Dream was beaten a nostril in the skien starter by 9-2 Lucky Penney. Obviously a $32 horse in a P4 sequence is what you’re always looking for. Hope you did OK..

Weather in NY is iffy, so despite the C/O, I’m sticking with the Churchill P4 which looked like fun when I printed PP’s Monday.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Wildandfabulous 3-1
Best Value: #6 Future Story 5-1
Next Best: #10 Hitch Your Wagon 6-1
Super Add: #8 Seismic Shift 8-1

7th: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating group… #2 Thiskyhasnolimit is a half to 3yo Ricoriatoa (Smarty Jones) who is 0 for 4 but has been on the board in 3 of those starts… #4 Red Rally is by first crop Reformer Rally (Dynaformer) and a half brother to Premium Tap (!)… #7 Backtalk is a $250k Smarty Jones red out of Apasionata Sonata making him a half to Bsharpsonata… #8 Dublin is the 5th Afleet Alex (0 for 4 so far) to hit the track, and note that Lukas is 12/2-3-2 with firsters since the beginning of the year… #10 Horst is the 6th Bwana Charlie (2 for 5 so far) to hit the track…

Most Likely: #3 Mississippi Hattie 6-1
Best Value: #10 Horst 12-1
Next Best: #7 Backtalk 6-1
Super Add: #8 Dublin 15-1

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Inkado 7-2
Best Value: #2 A. U. Miner 5-1
Next Best: #7 Au Moon 5-2
Super Add: #5 Squander 8-1

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #10 Stormin Yank 4-1
Next Best: #12 Malibu Martini 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Snuck By 6-1
Best Value: #9 Seneca Summer 6-1
High 5 Play: #11 Montalvo 30-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6
7: 2-3-5-7-8-10
8: 2-4
9: 1-4-9-10-11-12

2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Hope everyone enjoyed the terrific day of racing despite my being of very little help. The challenging day turned into a bit of a struggle and chase scenario thanks to Desormeaux and Pennington being allowed to get away with murder in the 4th. Alan Garcia should be embarrassed by his performance on Expansion, and indeed apologized to McLaughlin afterwards who was plenty disgusted. That killed my early P4 and set an early negative tone.

One of the bright spots that kept the day from being dreadful, was catching a nice P3 hooking Sette E Mezzo (Likely)-Fabulous Strike (Likely)-Diamondrella (Value) together for $287 ($2). That provided some encouragement which proved short-lived when This One’s for Phil failed to rally from down inside and Munnings, in whom I had zero interest, ran huge.

Nice priced ‘Super Add’ Gabby’s Golden Girl was on a few of my multi tickets, but not one with either Munnings or Summer Bird on the other ends. Lost $250 on the day, which was very frustrating given how many great prices were available in so many areas. Hope you did well! It was a perfect day at Belmont with just enough people to make it festive but not so many that it was a pain. Saw a number of DTers, Dee Teers and ATR listeners, and everyone seems particularly excited to get to Saratoga.

Wednesday week-starter at Belmont is VERY challenging, so the potential for big balloons exists…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Roaring Ghost 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 For Love Alone 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Fairy Wand 3-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Stormie Gray 10-1 5th

5th: S/HCP, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Future Prospect 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 More Than a Reason 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Even Raise 9-5 2nd

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutal, low level starter handicap with returnees and inconsistant sorts..

Most Likely: #9 Treat Her Right 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Our Montana Dream 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Dose of Reality 5-2 9th
Super Add: #4 Justinline 4-1 3rd

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Hot Money 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Cardiff Road 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Joey’s Chance 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Brecciate 4-1 8th

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #4 Torpedo Run 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #1 Reptillian Smarts 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Mister Triester 4-1 2nd

9th: MSW, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tawaared 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Courageous Cat 8-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Smax 5-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Dukinfield 12-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

Super tricky sequence, and the only approach that appears to make sense, is to troll for prices while swinging for the fences with single..

6: 4-5-7-9-10
7: 2-4-6
8: 4
9: 4-5-7-10-11

5x3x1x5 = $75

A different kind of Triple Crown season draws to a close today, having already produced a highly memorable and entertaining traverse of results and emotions. The ‘heroes and villains’ of this particularly peculiar campaign have exchanged hats more than once since Kentucky, but the overall winner in the final analysis may be the game of racing with several potentially sustainable equine and human stars having emerged.

Weather has been poor the last 48 hours and we will encounter a wet track to start the day at Belmont. With luck, the main track should improve as the afternoon wears on, but there has to be a great deal of moisture in it to start. The turf will be yielding at best. Good luck today, and I hope you have enjoyed ‘At the Races’ coverage of the 2009 Derby, Preakness and Belmont. 

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dixieland Star 2-1
Best Value: #10 Toque 10-1
Next Best: #5 Living Out a Dream 8-1
Super Add: #7 Justin P 30-1

2nd: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Speight of Hand 7-2
Best Value: #5 Brother Nick 10-1 
Next Best: #7 Just Ben 3-1

3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Convocation 3-1
Best Value: #12 Frenchonionsoup 10-1
Next Best: #11 Wanted Alive 5-1
Super Add: #8 Bimini 6-1

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Expansion 3-1
Best Value: #8 Blazing Dynamo 6-1
Next Best: #3 Slam Dunk 5-1
Super Add: #1 Spurred 9-2

OFF THE TURF: 11-12-13-5

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Le Grand Cru 10-1
Most Likely: #10 Sette E Mezzo 4-1
Next Best: #8 My Man Lars 12-1
Super Add: #9 Western Influence 10-1

OFF THE TURF: 5-14-11-12 

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6-7
3: 2-12
4: 2-3-8 (OFF: 11-12-13)
5: 5-8-10 (OFF: 5-11-14)

4x2x3x3 = $72

6th: 31st True North H. (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Fabulous Strike 2-1
Best Value: #5 Desert Key 6-1
Next Best: #1 Benny the Bull 5-2

7th: 16th Just a Game (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Forever Together 6-5
Best Value: #7 Diamondrella 8-1
Next Best: #3 Captain’s Lover 8-1
Super Add: #1 Caribean Sunset 6-1

8th: 25th Woody Stephens (Gr. II), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 THIS ONE’S FOR PHIL 7-2
Best Value: #8 Hull 3-1
Next Best: #1 Godolphin-Darley entry 2-1

9th: 79th Acorn (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Justwhistledixie 8-5
Next Best: #7 Dream Play 6-1
Best Value: #6 Livin Lovin 15-1
Super Add: #2 Gabby’s Golden Gal 15-1

10th: 108th Manhattan H. (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Gio Ponti 7-2
Best Value: #11 Lauro 15-1
Next Best: #1 (POE) Court Vision 4-1
Super Add: #9 Cosmonaut 6-1

11th: 141st Belmont Stakes (Gr. I), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Mine That Bird 2-1
Next Best: #2 Dunkirk 4-1
Best Value: #9 Miner’s Escape 15-1
Super Add: #1 Chocolate Candy 10-1

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 5-6
7: 5
8: 2-8
9: 7-8
10: 1-5-11
11: 1-2-6-7

2x1x2x2x3x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-8
9: 6-7-8
10: 1-5-11
11: 1-2-6-7

2x3x3x4 = $72

12th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #13 Afrikaner 2-1
Best Value: #15 Believe in Love 6-1
Next Best: #14 African Knight 3-1
Super Add: #2 Monastir 8-1

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #16 Lincoln Road 3-1
Best Value: #2 Driven by Royal 8-1
Next Best: #4 Manchild 2-1
Super Add: #14 Wanda’s Double 4-1

<$75 P4 Play:

10: 1-5-11
11: 1-2-6-7
12: 13-14-15
13: 2-16

3x4x3x2 = $72

Good luck!
Steve