The best part of Rachel Alexandra’s win is that it quashes the wild-eyed, ill-informed zealots who gleefully seek to destroy the game due to their inability to comprehend what the horseplayer, fan and industry stakeholder all love about it: the fact that it induces genuine and unfettered emotion.

The types that spew vitriol at racing and eagerly claim the sport is dying, which unfortunately includes some within the sport itself, are jealous misanthropes who seek validation for their own sad lives. Because they are completely desensitized to experiences like the thrall of Baltimore Saturday, or too frightened to feel the despair of Louisville a year ago, they try to diminish the experience for those intrepid enough to brave racing’s natural highs and lows. Too bad for them. They don’t know what they’re missing.

Window work went well too Saturday, catching some excellent ‘Best Value’ runners including $40.20 Motown Shuffle in the ALW 5th and $28.40 No Advantage in the Schaefer. Offered up the Preakness triple as well, with Musket/Mine inversed behind Rachel on top. Hit 3 of the 4 Pick 4’s Friday-Saturday, but lost money on the short-priced sequences. Hope you did well on the Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness Weekend… Belmont carryover to try today.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 More to the Story 3-1
Best Value: #7 Strike the Bell 10-1
Next Best: #10 Miss Catalyst 2-1

6th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Powder Burn 8-5
Best Value: #8 Proud Diva 8-1
Next Best: #4 Selene’s Delight 12-1

7th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Allrightsreserved 3-1
Best Value: #7 Country Trick 10-1
Next Best: #2 Empirior 9-2
Exotics Use: #1e Zito entry 5-2

8th: Lure, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Prince Rahy 5-2
Best Value: #4 Elusive Gift 5-1
Next Best: #6 Ballast 4-1
Super Add: #7 Our Friend Harvey 3-1

9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Optimer 2-1
Best Value: #6 Thunder Minister 10-1
Next Best: #7 Bon Marie 3-1
Super Add: #1 (POE) Akebono 8-1

10th: 31st Mount Vernon, NYB F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 I Lost My Choo 2-1
Best Value: #7 You Go West Girl 4-1
Next Best: #3 Love Cove 5-1
Super Add: #4 Chestoria 6-1

<$300 P6 Play:

5: 4-7-10
6: 2-8
7: 1-2-6-7
8: 2
9: 2-6-7
10: 6-7

3x2x4x1x3x2 = 144 x $2 = $288

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-6-7
8: 2-4
9: 2-6-7
10: 3-6-7

4x2x3x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Black-Eyed Susan Day left punters with black eyes as any attempt to make real money was quashed by a parade of short-priced winners. You know it’s a short arm kind of day when you catch two P4’s and LOSE $50 on them… No matter. The prequel should have left everyone in good shape for what has potential to be a much better chance to mix in long prices with the obvious Saturday. Hope everyone did well and enjoys what may be one of those special kinds of days Saturday…

HI HO, PIMLICO

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Malibu Joe 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Storms Past 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Wild Repent 7-2 5th
Super Add: #Ijada’s Run 6-1 2nd

2nd: 17th Allaire DuPont (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Skylighter 1-1 WON
Best Value: #6 All Smiles 6-1 3rd

3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Hot Bullet 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #5 Stonestreet Star 9-5 7th
Next Best: #2 Pocket Patch 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Y’er Man 20-1 5th

4th: 22nd Wm. Schaefer (Gr. II), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ea 3-1 2nd-DH
Best Value: #7 No Advantage 12-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Ready Set 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Real Merchant 4-1 2nd-DH

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Habitual 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Motown Shuffle 20-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Cold Orient 6-1 10th
Super Add: #9 Robey’s Choice 15-1 7th

6th: 2nd Deputed Testimony (R), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Norjac 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Terrific Tom 15-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Sumacha’hot 2-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Thunder Charm 10-1 8th

7th: 58th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Dynaforce 4-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Shytoe Lafeet 10-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Tejida 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 All is Vanity 9-2 2nd

8th: 34th Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. II), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Not for Silver 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Everyday Heroes 6-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Taqarub 5-2
Super Add: #7 Nuclear Wayne 4-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-7-10
6: 3-5
7: 3-8
8: 1-2-3-6-7-9

3x2x2x6 = $72

9th: 44th Woodlawn, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, DD)

Best Value: #7 Code of Honour 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #8 Affirmatif 3-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Heros Image 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Dakota Dunes 12-1 5th

10th: 23rd Maryland Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ravalo 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Ah Day 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Torpedo Run 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Celtic Innis 10-1 3rd

11th: 108th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Frankel/Attfield entry 5-2 9th (#1 Proudinsky SCR’D)
Best Value: #2 Monba 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Strike a Deal 5-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Lauro 8-1 4th

12th: 134th Preakness (Gr. I), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 Musket Man 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Mine That Bird 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Pioneerof the Nile 5-1 11th
High 5 Play: #7 Papa Clem 12-1 7th

$1 Trifecta (13-2-3) Paid $108.10
$1 Exacta (13-2) Paid $19.60

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-7-8
10: 5-6-7-8
11: 1-2-3-4-8-12
12: 13

3x4x6x1 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4,5,8/1,8/3,9/13) Paid $65.10

5/6 (CD):
$48 P4: $0
$216 P6: $505.00

5/7 (BEL):
$72 P4: $1,040.50

5/9 (BEL/HOL):
$72: $0
$72: $811.90

5/13 (BEL):
$72: $1,490.50

What has been particularly notable over this week of play is that ticket structure has overcome mediocre handicapping. I haven’t been able to put together many in-race exotics (trifectas; supers) during this stretch, which indicates to me that I’m not ‘seeing’ the individual races particularly well. But inclusion of the ‘right’ price horse(s) has been key in any of these over-sized payouts, as well as identifying beatable favorites and spreading appropriately in those races. Indeed as to spreading, use of the ‘all’ button in that quirky featured Churchill marathon on the Derby Carryover Card, (which pushes the play from $216 to $432), hits the $30,000+ sequence.

The point is that the relative ‘cheapness’ of playing multi-race wagers continues to prove out as the best way to maximize your horseplaying returns. For those that say you can’t ‘win’ at the racetrack, a burst of success like this, similar to chaotic number theory in casino gaming, covers 40 unsuccessful $72 P4 plays… and that of course precludes that you won’t hit any of those 40 efforts. No one wants to go on an 0 for 40 run, but it helps your play knowing you’re still ‘ahead’ the whole time you’re in a funk.

That the pendulum will swing your way and that you can get it all back to forge your way ahead, is one of the best ways to approach your wagering. It gives you an impervious indomitability in your own opinion that seperates you from the players that are tentative in their approach and unsure of themselves. I can’t keep winning large pots at the rate I have over the past week, but knowing that this kind of return is out there in spots, provides the confidence to shrug off bad play and unlucky stretches.

Preakness Weekend starts today with a nice Black-Eyed Susan Day Card.

HI HO, PIMLICO!

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MD-bred S/Stake, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4)

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #7 Four Karats 6-1
Next Best: #5 Eye 5-2
Super Add: #6 Rinella Storm 8-1

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Best Value: #1 Magamoo 8-1
Most Likely: #2 Pissaro 5-2
Next Best: #9 Bette to Win 2-1
Super Add: #7 Hasta La Pasta 8-1

6th: Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #4 Smart and Fancy 2-1
Best Value: #3 Ahvee’s Destiny 6-1
Next Best: #7 Sheets 9-2
Super Add: #10 Kosmo’s Buddy 15-1

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #2 Eyes of Eire 3-1
Best Value: #3 Perpetuity 6-1
Next Best: #1 Streetscape 2-1
Super Add: #6 Bright Gem 5-2

<$75 P4 Play:

Scratch of Maria’s Golden Rose from 4th badly undermines the play here..

4: 5-6-7
5: 1-2-9
6: 3-4
7: 1-2-3-6

3x3x2x4 = $72

8th: Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3)

Brutally tough group and happily NOT part of either P4…

Best Value: #2 True to Tradition 9-2
Most Likely: #12 Mr. Nighlinger 3-1
Next Best: #6 Hero’s Reward 5-2
Super Add: #9 Crimson Sun 20-1

9th: Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P4)

Most Likely: #5 All Giving 1-1
Best Value: #3 Fancy Diamond 6-1
Next Best: #4 What Time It Is 3-1
Super Add: #6 Mysterious Bandit 8-1

10th: OC/M3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Fareena 6-5
Best Value: #4 Ziggly 5-1
Next Best: #2 Julia Tuttle 3-1
Super Add: #3 Avie’s Tale 8-1

11th: Miss Preakness (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Gatorette 7-2
Next Best: #2 Heart Ashley 8-5
Super Add: #7 Mani Bhavan 5-2

12th: Black-Eyed Susan (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f (Preakness Double, Super High Five)

Most Likely: #8 Don’t Forget Gil 7-2
Best Value: #5 Bon Jovi Girl 12-1
Next Best: #7 Casanova Move 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Payton d’Oro 9-2

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 5
10: 1-2-3-4-5-9
11: 2-5-7
12: 2-5-7-8

1x6x3x4 = $72

13th: Hilltop, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Blind Date 7-2
Best Value: #5 Saar Treaty 8-1
Next Best: #3 Seminole Lass 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Rena 7-2
High 5 Play: #1e Jenkins entry 10-1

Good luck!
Steve

Not a great deal of time to comment on the weekend, except to say that multi-race wagering continues to demonstrate its’ overwhelming perfection as the horseplayers’ friend. Was floored Saturday night by discovery of Monmouth’s .50 Pick 5 and the opening day bonanza that returned an incredible $3,400. The value here on a .50 base wager was stunning as three short-priced favorites, a 9-2 second choice Kelly Breen entry and $13 third choice winner brought back the wallet-stuffer. If these kinds of returns don’t make a P4, P5 and even P6 player, I’m not sure what will… Hollywood and Belmont quads to attack today!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cozy Lion 4-1 WON
Best Value: #1 (POE) Pynaformer 15-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Cherokee Speed 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Laureate Conductor 3-1 2nd

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: Key 5 1st/2nd with 1-3-4-9 (1x4x3x2 = 24 + 4x1x3x2 = 24 = 480 x .10 = $4.80)

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Vue de Chat 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Elena’s Princess 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Wonderwho’sbest 15-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Acquired Cat 9-2 7th

8th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #1e Contessa entry 10-1 5th/9th
Most Likely: #7 Kristi With a K 9-5 WON
Next Best: #2 (POE) Quiet Harbor 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Loxy Lady 6-1 3rd

9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Precious Pride 8-1 10th
Most Likely: #6 Corey’s Coming 3-1 WON
Next Best: #10 For Love Alone 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 Bella Cherokee 6-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-9
7: 5-6-7-9
8: 1-2-7
9: 1-6-10

2x4x3x3 = $72 $1 P4 (5/5/7/4,6,9) Paid $1,490.50

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Cal-bred ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1a (POE) Unzip Me 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Thelma Rose 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Dancing Erin 3-1 7th
Super Add: #4 SCR

6th: Cal-bred MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Charlie and Chris 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Quick Vic 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Denizen 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Kaptain Kordough 3-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mark S the Cooler 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 African Gray 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Del Conte 5-1 3rd

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Sun Lightening 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Mort Robbins 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pediatrics 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Pierre’s Favor 8-1 10th
High 5 Play: #1 You’re No Good 20-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5-8
6: 2-7
7: ALL
8: 5-9

3x2x5x2 = $60

Back to Belmont today with good Peter Pan the highlight within the $350k guaranteed P4, and glance at Hollywood 4 as well where intriguing LeRoy is the feature.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Cabaret Cowboy 3-1: Away since fall; 2nd in Musket Man’s maidenbreaker.. WON
Best Value: #1e Frankel entry 10-1: Both make real dirt debuts here.. 5th/7th
Next Best: #3 Ricoriatoa 6-1: Moves to organic surface and adds hood.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Abu Racer 30-1: Big number gets blinks: 21% W move for Assaf.. 9th

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) SCR
Best Value: #7 Captain Backfire 6-1: Circling back to good effort.. 5th
Next Best: #10 Millirock 9-2: Telegraphs intent by recalling Ramon.. 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Come Soon 10-1: DiPrima wheels turf/dirt in 10 days.. 3rd

9th: 56th Peter Pan (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Brave Victory 8-1: Toss poly run; Value if one turn 9f suits.. 3rd
Most Likely: #6 Imperial Council 2-1: Underlay number on bad paddock actor.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Charitable Man 3-1: Blue Grass ill-advised; Obvious if back to 2yo form..
Exotics Use: #1 Stately Character 15-1: Seems certain to pick up pieces late.. 7th

10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #3 Longing for Malibu 5-1 8th
Most Likely: #5 SCR
Next Best: #10 John Wyatt 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Monastir 12-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-9
8: 1-7-10
9: 3-4-6
10: 3-10

4x3x3x2 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: S/ALW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Pretty damn good starter ALW.. After the top pick, it’s a grab bag…

Most Likely: #12 Deluxe Cat 3-1 WON
Best Value: #11 My Man Sumo 10-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Turkish Victory 6-1 9th
Super Add: #2 My King 8-1 7th

7th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Wild Diplomat 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Victory Pete 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Indian Sun 6-1 6th

8th: 30th Mervyn Leroy H. (Gr. II), 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rail Trip 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Aggie Engineer 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Ball Four 6-1 WON

9th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Hidden Trail 3-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Egypt 4-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Holladay Road 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Caspian 6-1 7th
High 5 Play: #10 Kumiva 6-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 10-11-12
7: 5-6
8: ALL
9: 6-8

3x2x6x2 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (12–6-3-8) Paid $811.90