Preakness Weekend starts with good ‘Susie’ Card
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
5/6 (CD):
$48 P4: $0
$216 P6: $505.00
5/7 (BEL):
$72 P4: $1,040.50
5/9 (BEL/HOL):
$72: $0
$72: $811.90
5/13 (BEL):
$72: $1,490.50
What has been particularly notable over this week of play is that ticket structure has overcome mediocre handicapping. I haven’t been able to put together many in-race exotics (trifectas; supers) during this stretch, which indicates to me that I’m not ‘seeing’ the individual races particularly well. But inclusion of the ‘right’ price horse(s) has been key in any of these over-sized payouts, as well as identifying beatable favorites and spreading appropriately in those races. Indeed as to spreading, use of the ‘all’ button in that quirky featured Churchill marathon on the Derby Carryover Card, (which pushes the play from $216 to $432), hits the $30,000+ sequence.
The point is that the relative ‘cheapness’ of playing multi-race wagers continues to prove out as the best way to maximize your horseplaying returns. For those that say you can’t ‘win’ at the racetrack, a burst of success like this, similar to chaotic number theory in casino gaming, covers 40 unsuccessful $72 P4 plays… and that of course precludes that you won’t hit any of those 40 efforts. No one wants to go on an 0 for 40 run, but it helps your play knowing you’re still ‘ahead’ the whole time you’re in a funk.
That the pendulum will swing your way and that you can get it all back to forge your way ahead, is one of the best ways to approach your wagering. It gives you an impervious indomitability in your own opinion that seperates you from the players that are tentative in their approach and unsure of themselves. I can’t keep winning large pots at the rate I have over the past week, but knowing that this kind of return is out there in spots, provides the confidence to shrug off bad play and unlucky stretches.
Preakness Weekend starts today with a nice Black-Eyed Susan Day Card.
HI HO, PIMLICO!
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MD-bred S/Stake, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4)
Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #7 Four Karats 6-1
Next Best: #5 Eye 5-2
Super Add: #6 Rinella Storm 8-1
5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Magamoo 8-1
Most Likely: #2 Pissaro 5-2
Next Best: #9 Bette to Win 2-1
Super Add: #7 Hasta La Pasta 8-1
6th: Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3)
Most Likely: #4 Smart and Fancy 2-1
Best Value: #3 Ahvee’s Destiny 6-1
Next Best: #7 Sheets 9-2
Super Add: #10 Kosmo’s Buddy 15-1
7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)
Most Likely: #2 Eyes of Eire 3-1
Best Value: #3 Perpetuity 6-1
Next Best: #1 Streetscape 2-1
Super Add: #6 Bright Gem 5-2
<$75 P4 Play:
Scratch of Maria’s Golden Rose from 4th badly undermines the play here..
4: 5-6-7
5: 1-2-9
6: 3-4
7: 1-2-3-6
3x3x2x4 = $72
8th: Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3)
Brutally tough group and happily NOT part of either P4…
Best Value: #2 True to Tradition 9-2
Most Likely: #12 Mr. Nighlinger 3-1
Next Best: #6 Hero’s Reward 5-2
Super Add: #9 Crimson Sun 20-1
9th: Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P4)
Most Likely: #5 All Giving 1-1
Best Value: #3 Fancy Diamond 6-1
Next Best: #4 What Time It Is 3-1
Super Add: #6 Mysterious Bandit 8-1
10th: OC/M3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3)
Most Likely: #5 Fareena 6-5
Best Value: #4 Ziggly 5-1
Next Best: #2 Julia Tuttle 3-1
Super Add: #3 Avie’s Tale 8-1
11th: Miss Preakness (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 6f (P3)
Most Likely: #5 Gatorette 7-2
Next Best: #2 Heart Ashley 8-5
Super Add: #7 Mani Bhavan 5-2
12th: Black-Eyed Susan (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f (Preakness Double, Super High Five)
Most Likely: #8 Don’t Forget Gil 7-2
Best Value: #5 Bon Jovi Girl 12-1
Next Best: #7 Casanova Move 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Payton d’Oro 9-2
<$75 P4 Play:
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-4-5-9
11: 2-5-7
12: 2-5-7-8
1x6x3x4 = $72
13th: Hilltop, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super High 5)
Most Likely: #8 Blind Date 7-2
Best Value: #5 Saar Treaty 8-1
Next Best: #3 Seminole Lass 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Rena 7-2
High 5 Play: #1e Jenkins entry 10-1
Good luck!
Steve