BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Colonial Kid 8-1
Most Likely: #10 Manitowish Waters 2-1
Next Best: #9 Marl 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Patent Pending Tom 30-1

7th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lucky Revival 3-1
Next Best: #1 (POE) Dicey Girl 2-1 (NOTE: Only one in Klesaris entry goes)
Best Value: #2 Sherine 6-1

8th: Three Coins Up, 3+, 10f-T (DD)

Best Value: #1 Prince Rahy 4-1
Most Likely: #4 Grand Couturier 8-5
Next Best: #6 Nergal 7-2

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fair Catch 4-1
Best Value: #1 (POE) Winloc’s Big D 10-1
Next Best: #9 He Struck It Rich 5-2
Super Add: #8 Concorde’s Crown 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-9-10
7: 1-4
8: 1-4-6
9: 1-6-8-9

3x2x3x4 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

RACING CANCELLED!!

Good luck!
Steve

Finally am turning attention back to New York today, though as NYRA’s Andy Serling reported last night, they will be off the turf today at Belmont. With the meat of the New York season now ahead of us, need to catch up on the ‘senior circuit’ quickly after focusing outside the NY ovals for nearly a month.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

NOTE: 4th, 5th and 7th are OFF THE TURF, so check for post-scratch revisions…

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Donk entry 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Discreet Empire 12-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Mary’s Song 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Crema d’Oro 20-1 3rd

5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: # #1 Kitty Nip 5-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Favorite Flavor 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Kiss and Fly 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Street Talk 12-1 3rd

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Super Shape 5-2 6th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Air Lord 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Saratoga Lullaby 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Bill Place 12-1 4th

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #14 SCR
Next Best: #13 Drowning Bear 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Platinum Couple 12-1 6th
Super Add: #15 Motor Patrol 8-1 WON

8th: Nasty and Bold, 3+, 12f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Delosvientos 7-5 5th
Next Best: #5 Alcomo 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Eldaafer 12-1 3rd

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Runnin On Guilt 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Saarlandisourland 9-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Asscher Cut 20-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Wonsome 5-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-9
7: 4-13-15
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 1-7

3x3x4x2 = $72

$1 P4 (1-15-2-7) Paid $1,040.50

Came away from the Kentucky trip satisfied from a racing quality standpoint and down $100 from the wagering perspective thank entirely to the Derby. Looking back, casting nets widely in P3’s may be the best approach to the Oaks-Derby Weekend Cards. Look at these sequences in $1 P3’s up to the points where Orthodox and Mine That Bird likely stopped most P4/P3 runs:

Friday:
Chamberlain Bridge-Miss Isella-Laragh: $186
Miss Isella-Laragh-Bullsbay: $318

Saturday:
Accredit-Four Gifts-Tizaqueena: $307
Four Gifts-Tizaqueena-Informed Decision: $212
Tizaqueena-Informed Decision-Einstein: $125

More than $1,100 in P3’s are there with horses that were necessities on tickets. Thought this was edifying as I looked back at my play from Friday and Saturday. Hope you did OK over Oaks-Derby and finish the ‘First Weekend in May’ strong today!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Yankee Player 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Five Star Sweetie 5-1 WON
Next Best: #9 SCR
Super Add: #1 Morning Magic 5-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $23.20
$1 Trifecta (5-1-8) Paid $53.50

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Formal Dannie 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Gatorize 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Burke’s Sister 9-2 5th
Super Add: #1 No Image 6-1 4th

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #2 High Quail WON
Next Best: #12 Caffeine Free 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Maria’s Moon 3rd

7th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Stratos 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 Emma’s Posse 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 Lookn Mighty Fast 5-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Pound the Rock 8-1 6th

8th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 11f (DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #4 Silver Mountain 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Hidden Glance 5-2 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Hi-5 C/O: $252,000

Most Likely: #4 Jolly Ol’ Nick 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Shot Gun Cliff 6-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Mr. Champ 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Wayfarer 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Steds Pirate 12-1 7th

@$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-5-8
5: 3-4-6
6: 2
7: 2-4-6
8: 4-5
9: 4-5

3x3x1x3x2x2 = 108 x $2 = $216

$2 Pick 6 (5/3/1,2,4,5,6,9,11/4/3/5) Paid $252.60 (5OF6) x 2 = $505.20

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-12
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 4-5
9: 2-3-4-5-6-8

2x4x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

Track may be more difficult to harrow into good/fast territory today as rain may continue off and on all afternoon. Remarkable job Friday as Butch Lehr’s crew utilized every trick in the book getting surface from slop to fast by Oaks. Suggestion to stay open to fair oval proved out, as frontrunners only had an edge in the first couple of main track events before rallying runners got into photos as day wore on. Rachel Alexandra performance was one for the ages, as the insanely talented filly swiped the Orchids in near record time under a hand ride. She only started to really run when Borel let he have her head after the wire. It was amazing, and the only performance I could think of recently like it was Point Given’s Belmont win.

Doubt Derby produces any kind of comparable run, with a myriad of questions hanging over virtually every major runner. My positive view of Quality Road coming into this race left me with no real heartfelt opinion on a single horse for the rose run, so my approach will be scattershot. In terms of order of preference as of Derby morning, I’d present this way:

1. Chocolate Candy
2. Friesan Fire
3. Regal Ransom
4. Mr. Hot Stuff
5. Hold Me Back

Hope everyone enjoyed “At the Races” coverage of Derby… Oaks-Derby recap Monday! Good luck to everybody today and always.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 75th Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kodiak Cowboy 8-5
Next Best: #9 Sok Sok 5-2
Best Value: #8 Silver Edition 12-1
Super Add: #6 Accredit 8-1

7th: 54th Eight Belles (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1 Just Jenda 4-1
Best Value: #10 Auspicious 9-2
Next Best: #4 Four Gifts 3-1
Super Add: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15-1

8th: 24th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Visit 7-2
Best Value: #1 Lemon Chiffon 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ballymore Lady 9-2
Super Add: #3 Tizaqueena 8-1

9th: 23rd Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Game Face 2-1
Best Value: #7 Royale Michelle 10-1
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 9-5
Super Add: #5 Secret Gypsy 7-2

10th: 23rd Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T ((P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Einstein 2-1
Best Value: #9 Zambezi Sun 10-1 
Next Best: #4 Court Vision 7-2
Super Add: #3 Proudinsky 6-1

11th: 135th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #11 Chocolate Candy 20-1: Candy Ride colt should relish trip, surface; sharp pre-race work..
Most Likely: #6 Friesan Fire 5-1: Grudgingly respect solid A.P. Indy that may own big tactical edge..
Exotics Use: #5 Hold Me Back 15-1; #10 Regal Ransom 30-1
Super Add: #1 West Side Bernie 30-1; #3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1 

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-4-6-9
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$300 P6 Play:

6: 3-6-8-9
7: 1
8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 6
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

4x1x2x3x1x6 = 144 x $2 = $288

Good luck!
Steve

Weather serious threat to Oaks-Derby Weekend, but you never can count on forecast in this region. Don’t abandon or revise your plans unless you see clear indication of compromise to fairness of the racetrack.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #11 Custom for Carlos 5-2
Best Value: #2 Fufty Too 30-1
Next Best: #1 Munnings 6-1
Super Add: #4 Street Car 5-1

6th: 15th Aegon Turf Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Smart Enough 3-1
Next Best: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2
Best Value: #5 Due Date 12-1
Super Add: #4 Captivating Cat 8-1

7th: 24th Louisville (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Sporting move by Mosses to come here, but will be surprised if Shirreffs runs Zenyatta over a sea of slop, and race flow against the wonder mare ayway…

Best Value: #4 One Caroline 3-1 
Most Likely: #2 SCR
Next Best: #8 Unbridled Belle 3-1
Super Add: #3 Miss Isella 15-1

8th: 25th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

May cover ridiculous 6-5 ML fave Laragh in multis but looking to score out within race..

Most Likely: #7 Magical Affair 5-1
Best Value: #2 Fleet Streak 20-1
Next Best: #11 Diamond Tags 10-1
Super Add: #1 Excelente 30-1

9th: 6th Alysheba (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cool Coal Man 4-1
Best Value: #5 Bullsbay 6-1
Next Best: #3 Mambo in Seattle 5-1
Super Add: #8 Dr. Pleasure 6-1

10th: 18th American Turf (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #5 Skipadate 10-1
Most Likely: #1 Stormallory 5-2
Next Best: #3 Battle of Hastings 3-1
Super Add: #7 Turfiste 8-1

11th: 135th Kentucky Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, KO-KD Dbl, KO-WRTC-KD P3, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Rachel Alexandra 3-5
Next Best: #5 Justwhistledixie 5-2
Best Value: #2 Be Fair 15-1
Super Add: #4 Gabby’s Golden Girl 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-7-10-11
9: 1-3-4-5-8-9
10: 1-3-5-7
11: 6

5x6x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60

Good luck!
Steve