Good day to start Week 3 had potential to be outstanding, and though I
fell short of pointing things out clearly, it appears it was for many
Derby Trail readers and ATR listeners as at least three
readers/listeners hitting the $4,600 quad! For me, the prime bet of the
day was the state bred Cab Calloway where Uncle T Seven looked like a
grapefruit coming over the plate. The 5-2 John Morrison trainee
combined with overlaid ‘Best Value’ Livin Large (11-1) and obvious
include Scientist for a fat $230 tri ($2). Hope you did well (and know
quite a few did)! Carryover of $52,000+ Thursday on a very slippery
sequence.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Ben Nevis, 4+, 16.5f-Hurdles (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Dalucci 3-1
Next Best: #8 Dynaski 7-2
Best Value: #3 Arcadius 6-1
Super Add: #9 Swagger Stick 5-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR #2b Proud Zoe who won Monday..

Best Value: #7 Speckledbird 6-1
Most Likely: #4 Cableknit 2-1
Next Best: #5 Capital Adequacy 8-1
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Limeheart 10-1

3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Vindication 7-2
Next Best: #2 Just Ben 2-1
Exotics Use: #1e Clay entry 5-2

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Triple Glory 10-1
Most Likely: #6 Telemachus 3-1
Next Best: #3 All West 5-2
Super Add: #4 Napkins 5-1

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Counterspy 5-2
Next Best: #5 Master 3-1
Best Value: #1 Dontquityourdayjob 8-1
Super Add: #6 Interrogatory 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-7
3: 1-2-5
4: 3-4-6-8
5: 1-4-5

2x3x4x3 = $72

6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Quick to Charm 7-2
Best Value: #5 Bullara 10-1
Next Best: #3 Angliana 3-1
Super Add: #10 Vettriano 5-1

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Hatheer 3-1
Best Value: #6 More Amour 8-1
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 4-1

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Choragus 5-2
Next Best: #6 Turn Away 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Tar Heel Mom 7-2

9th: NY Stallion-Statue of Liberty, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Wild Awake 5-2
Next Best: #7 Mother Russia 3-1
Best Value: #2 Es Mia 10-1
Super Add: #8 Sezzana 4-1

10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Collar 6-1
Most Likely: #9 Catty Madeline 5-1
Next Best: #2 Hangingonaprayer 3-1
Super Add: #7 My Anna Rose 8-1

$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-5
6: 2-3-5-10
7: 8
8: 2-6
9: 4-7
10: 8-9

3x4x1x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-8
8: 1-2-5-6
9: 2-4-7
10: 2-8-9

2x4x3x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Closed out first third of the Spa session with another big P4 hit ($1,059) that wiped out all of the week’s multi-race miscues and drove profitability back to a strong arena. $169 2nd race trifecta with 3-2, and overwhelmingly likely winner Proud Zoe, was a real bonanza as well. Enter 2nd trimester of the meet looking to continue approach and build bankroll. Hope you did great Monday and are enjoying the meet coverage on ATR!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Platinum 2-1
Next Best: #6 Starship Angel 9-2
Best Value: #3 Loquacious Lil 6-1
Super Add: #5 Dean Henry 5-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Grand Strategy 5-2
Best Value: #2 Aspire 4-1
Next Best: #1 Good to Be Seen 2-1

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Chick in Slacks 10-1
Most Likely: #1 Out Post 3-1
Next Best: #9 Ride On Josephine 4-1
Super Add: #10 Corbina 10-1

4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 16f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Mr. Again 6-1
Most Likely: #1 Lord Kipling 2-1
Next Best: #2 Fire Wood 5-2
Super Add: #6 Critical Acclaim 5-1

5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Tapaline 7-2
Best Value: #4 Opus A 8-1
Next Best: #1e Galusco entry 8-1
Exotics Use: #9 Precious Penny 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Tricky sequence..

2: 1-2-5
3: 1-3-9
4: 1-8
5: 1-4-7-9

3x3x2x4 = $72

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: SCR’s/draw-ins could change complexion of this race..

Most Likely: #5 Quiet Alice 3-1
Best Value: #4 Princess Westly 12-1
Next Best: #7 Kaliegh Rose 9-2
Super Add: #1 Beboblues Art 12-1

7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 My Golden Opinion 5-2
Best Value: #8 Distant Point 8-1
Next Best: #6 Marq of Love 5-1
Exotics Use: #11 Vinnies Wild Tale 10-1

8th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Deputyville 12-1
Most Likely: #8 Fairway Drive 3-1
Next Best: #4 Eldoktori 10-1
Super Add: #1 (POE) Cliff Meadows 6-1

9th: NY Stallion-Cab Caloway (R), 3yo (C&G), 8.5f-T (DD, Super0

Most Likely: #5 Uncle T Seven 5-2
Next Best: #6 Minnie Putt 3-1
Best Value: #8 Livin Large 10-1
Super Add: #1 Scientist 4-1

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #10 D’ Wildcard 4-1
Best Value: #6 Victory March 12-1
Next Best: #5 Hint 3-1
Super Add: #3 Bold Vindication 5-2

NOTE: Have been waiting for #2 Masterofthehouse (20-1) to break through for three straight (4th, 5th and 6th place finishes). Tries the stretchout and needs to be included on deep exotic tickets..

$100 P6 Play:

5: 4-7
6: 5
7: 6-8-9
8: 1-4-5-8
9: 5-6
10: 10

2x1x3x4x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-8-9
8: 1-4-5-8
9: 5-6
10: 5-6-10

3x4x2x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Weekend closed with a humdrum kind of Sunday at the Old Spa, but it was puncuated by impressive performances from Giralomo, Bribon, Game Face and the lovable Fabulous Strike. After a high energy crowd of 40,000 Saturday, yesterday was buzz-less and a bit deflated.

Big hits were not forthcoming, but did OK trading dollars for the most part with $65 early P4 ($48 play), a handful of chaky P3’s, the Finney turf stake ($95) and Vandy ($50) triples. Prices in the 8th and 11th triggered a $50k+ carryover for Monday which closes out the first third of the meet. Rain overnight with more possible later, likely impacts grass course decisions. Hope you did OK Sunday and this weekend.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

If this impossible set stays on turf, don’t be afraid to reach for the prices. Virtually all can win this..

Most Likely: #1e Donk entry 5-1
Best Value: #2 Higher Incentive 6-1
Next Best: #6 Soave 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Speed Dating 7-2

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Proud Zoe 9-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Afleet Maggi 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Quiet Temper 12-1 2nd

3rd: Albert the Great, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Barrier Reef 2-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Le Grand Cru 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1e Zito entry 9-5 (Cool Coal Man preferred) WON

4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

If remaining on lawn, this has potential to be immediate P6 play backbreaker. Favorite (#11) is poorly posted and comes in off a year’s layoff, and virtually all are capable of winning on their best and with right trip..

Best Value: #3 Maccarib Pass 10-1 5th
Most Likely: #11 Gravitational 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 (POE) William T 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 (POE) Riptide 9-2 WON

5th: Waya (R), F&M-4+, 12f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Jazz Jam 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #5 Communique 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 LATE SCR
Super Add: #7 Borrowing Base 5-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

Check for changes with off the turf adjustments very possible..

2: 1-4
3: 1-2-6
4: 1-2-3-11
5: 1-4-5

2x3x4x3 = $72

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutally tough turf sprint..

Best Value: #5 Dr Paula Moynihan 10-1 6th
Most Likely: #3 Serela’s Song 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Gentle Ride 6-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Barbie Girl 7-2 4th

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Awe So Beautiful 5-1 3rd
Most Likely: #10 Imandra 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Concorde’s Dance 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Amelia the Cat 8-1 6th

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

First class state bred main track route.. Terrific betting race

Most Likely: #8 Rereadthefootnotes 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Mr. Bourbon Street 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Multidude 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Overextended 10-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Smart Tomcat 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #1 Lofty Banner 15-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Weekend Pass 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Coaltown Legend 20-1 5th

$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-11
5: 1
6: 3-5
7: 8-10
8: 6-7-8-9
9: 1-5

3x1x2x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-11
7: 2-8-10
8: 6-7-8-9
9: 1-5

3x3x4x2 = $72

$2 Pick 4 (11/13-10-9-1) Paid $1,059

Thought it was going to be a good day when ‘Best Value’ Brecciate won at 7-1 to start the Spa session, but the going turned rough from that point with just a couple isolated winners little exotic or multi success. Was able to salvage the day with excellent Beverly D. and Arlington Million exactas, for which ATR listeners were primed, before Sciacca’s Tutti Va Bene capped the turnaround with a $40.40 win in the Saratoga nightcap. Hope you did OK despite my poor guidance, and are prepared to attack another 11 race set today…

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: NYB-ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super_

Both AE-#11 Tobruk (5-1) and AE-#12 Munition (8-1) move into top rungs should they draw into this good betting race..

Best Value: #9 Burnished Copper 8-1
Most Likely: #3 Pegasus Tommy D. 7-2
Next Best: #1 Pegasian 8-1
Super Add: #7 Woodrunner 5-1

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Upper Gulch 6-1
Most Likely: #3 Gold d’Oro 4-1
Next Best: #8 Minishaft 3-1
Super Add: #12 Top Mast 15-1

3rd: ALW/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Speight of Hand 8-1
Most Likely: #6 Charlott Humor 4-1
Next Best: #3 Girolamo 3-1

4th: Geyser Spring (R), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Elusive Heat 3-5
Best Value: #6 Luster 6-1
Next Best: #7 Northern Belle 8-1
Super Add: #4 Slam the Cat 12-1

5th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Tam Lin 5-2
Best Value: #6 Tizdejvu 10-1
Next Best: #5 Bribon 3-1
Super Add: #8 Inca King 4-1

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-8-12
3: 3-6-8
4: 8
5: 5-6-7-8

4x3x1x4 = $48

6th: Finney, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Smart and Fancy 7-2
Best Value: #6 Sly Storm 12-1
Next Best: #3 Ahvee’s Destiny 4-1
Super Add: #8 Karakorum Elektra 6-1

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Not a lot to guide you in this

Most Likely: #2 Captain Stone 6-1
Best Value: #11 Rein King 10-1
Next Best: #3 Hudson Landing 12-1
Logical Includes: #1 Middle of the Nite 4-1; #10 Aikenite 5-1

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+. 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 That’srightofficer 3-1
Best Value: #3 Stopbluffing 8-1
Next Best: #2 Almighty Silver 5-1
Exotics Use: #9 A Zero Trap 8-1

9th: 18th Honorable Miss (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Game Face 1-1
Best Value: #6 All Giving 15-1
Next Best: #4 Porte Bonheur 3-1

10th: 25th A. G. Vanderbilt (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Fabulous Strike 2-1
Next Best: #2 Kodiak Kowboy 3-1
Best Value: #1 Go Go Shoot 15-1

11th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3_, 5,5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Song for Pupcake 5-1
Best Value: #4 Lady At the Lake 6-1
Next Best: #2 Better Than Swiss 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Lateday Edition 7-2
Super Add: #11 Royal Valentine 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5
9: 3-6
10: 1-2-6
11: 2-4-9-12

3x2x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Yet another day of hard-to-nab winners tripped a doubl carryover into Saturday’s Whitney-Test card. Caught chalky first three exactas ($12, $18, $15) easily enough to start the day, before 8-1 I’m Your Lady upended the early P4 try. $55 exacta in the 6th (I’ve Got Speed-Natural Speed) was actually a nice boost before West Point firster slipped through the cracks in the 7th and killed an multi-race hopes on the afternoon. Best Value Jet Set Vinny ($16) was OK in the 9th and the $30 late double came in to close out the mediocre effort. Hope you did OK. Pair of big Gr. I’s and $141k carryover highlight the otherwise humdrum card, with Arlington’s Million Day blockbuster slate quite alluring…

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched bunch..

Most Likely: #1 Global Effect 5-1
Best Value: #9 Brecciate 8-1
Next Best: #3 Mr. Universe 6-1
Super Add: #5 Headache 6-1

2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Stall 2-1 favorite not appreciably better than many of the prices..

Most Likely: #3 Parker’s Project 8-1
Best Value: #1/1a Kelly entry (One goes) 15-1
Next Best: #8 Spell 2-1
Super Add: #4 Cross the Divide 10-1

3rd: NYB-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Good luck.. A collection of non-descript what-not, but at least #8 Western Collection actually finished in front already before DQ negated diploma..

Most Likely: #8 Western Connection 7-2
Best Value: #11 Elsie’s Warrior 9-2
Next Best: #4 Todo K 3-1
Exotics Use: #10 Fort McCoy 5-1

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Futuristic 7-2
Best Value: #5 Kelode 8-1
Next Best: #3 Thiefontherun 3-1
Super Add: #6 Chief Tomoka 12-1

5th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Afrikaner 1-1
Best Value: #5 Argentinian 8-1
Next Best: #11 Coach Fruscio 6-1
Super Add: #3 Rizzi’s Devil 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-8
3: 4-8-10-11
4: 3-4-5
5: 2-5

3x4x3x2 = $72

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Really interesting Empire ALW with elite set of likely types with a couple of bombs sprinkled within. Not in love with Morrison’s Z Cats Meow (#8), but can’t she speed-pop this?

Most Likely: #5 Chorus Music 4-1
Best Value: #4 Exclusive Scheme 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ketubah 5-2
Super Add: #1 Cugatcha 30-1

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Incredibly hard state-bred ALW.. Trip will be the deciding factor so don’t be afraid to take prices and spread in the P6..

Most Likely: #12 Urban Flight 8-1
Best Value: #9 Solvent 20-1
Next Best: #6 Missinglisalewis 3-1
Super Add: #10 Piazza Di Spagna 8-1

8th: John Hettinger, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Kiawah Cat 7-2
Best Value: #4 Complicity 8-1
Next Best: #8 Maram 5-2
Super Add: #10 Project Rose 10-1

9th: 84th Test (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cat Moves 2-1
Best Value: #1 Pretty Prolific 12-1
Next Best: #5 First Passage 3-1
Super Add: #8 All of Her Twist 12-1

10th: 82nd Whitney (Gr. I), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Asiatic Boy 6-1
Most Likely: #7 Commentator 8-5
Next Best: #4 Macho Again 7-2
Super Add: #6 Dry Martini 8-1

11th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Stayawaystella 6-1
Best Value: #6 Treat Her Right 10-1
Next Best: #8 Day Trippi 6-1
Super Add: #12 Tutti Va Bene 15-1

$300 P6 Play:

6: 1-4-5-7
7: 6-9-12
8: 1-8
9: 2
10: 2-7
11: 5-6-8

4x3x2x1x2x3 = 144 x $2 = $288

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-8
9: 1-2-5-8
10: 2-7
11: 5-6-8

3x4x2x4 = $72

Good luck!
SteveB