Carryover greets the Friday card after challenging, but anticipated, Thursday set. Missed the Quads on some tough horses, but had a few kooky successes including $104 jump race tri, $26 Best Value winner of the 7th and $90 nightcap tri. Hope you did OK. Big, big weekend on tap!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Crazy Catlady 3-1
Best Value: #1 Bella Attrice 5-1
Next Best: #6 Mindbender 6-1
Super Add: #9 Bobs Pinup Girl 4-1

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Pleasant Prince 3-1
Next Best: #5 Trickle Tickle 2-1
Best Value: #2 Ounta Nizuc 15-1
Super Add: #8 Tiger Boy 6-1

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Miss Fleetfoot 7-2
Next Best: #1a Boowoogeemalia 5-2
Best Value: #4 Dressmaker 5-1
Super Add: #3 Tide Runner 8-1

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Loxy Lady 5-2
Best Value: #3 Mynia 20-1
Next Best: #6 Deputy Empress 7-2
Super Add: #8 Dear Contender 20-1

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Artistic Ability 3-1
Next Best: #2 Economic Tsunami 7-2
Best Value: #5 Lucy N Thunder 6-1
Super Add: #4 Kittylicious 20-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-5-6
3: 1-2
4: 2-3-6-8
5: 1-2-5

3x2x4x3 = $72

6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2b I’ve Got Speed 9-2
Best Value: #9 Super Shape 12-1
Next Best: #6 Chitoz 6-1
Super Add: #10 Natural Speed 10-1

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Flower Exchange 3-1
Best Value: #4 Stormy Union 8-1
Next Best: #2 Heirness 4-1
Super Add: #5 Water of Life 5-1

8th: John’s Call (R), 4+, 13f-T (DD, Super)

Outrageously fun betting race.. Use every price you can..

Best Vaue: #10 Lord Kipling 12-1
Most Likely: #7 Silver Mountain 10-1
Next Best: #5 Always First 3-1
Super Add: #4 Old Man Buck 15-1

9th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Gulf Cat 7-2
Best Value: #5 Jet Set Vinny 6-1
Next Best: #1e Mott entry 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Nemo’s Landing 15-1

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Red Hot Bullet 3-1
Best Value: #4 Alexandrite Ring 5-1
Next Best: #2 Lorraine in Spain 12-1
Super Add: #7 Wise Choice 12-1

$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-2
6: 2-6-9
7: 3
8: 4-5-7-10
9: 1-5-7
10: 3

2x3x1x4x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3
8: 4-5-7-9-10
9: 1-3-5-7-9
10: 2-3-4

1x5x5x3 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

Early bombs and chalk the rest of the way produced a generally unsatisfying afternoon at the windows Wednesday with break-even late P4 and a couple of modest win and exotics mutuels. No time to comment extensively except to say the P6 was eminently hittable and my inability to lay out the multi-ticket approach thanks to time pressures cost you the very nice $2,367 payout. Hope you did OK… Good action today!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: A. P. Smithwick (Gr. II), 4+, 16.5f-Hurdles (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Slip Away 5-2
Best Value: #7 Mixed Up 5-1
Next Best: #4 Preemptive Strike 5-1
Super Add: #1 Planets Aligned 7-2

2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Raffie’s Rose 8-1
Most Likely: #1 (POE) Amiga Del Sol 2-1
Next Best: #7 Our Lady Liberty 12-1

3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Past the Point 2-1
Best Value: #2 Garifine 12-1
Next Best: #1 Spin Master 5-1
Super Add: #6 Cave’s Valley 3-1

4th: CLM, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Awesome Mich 12-1
Most Likely: #7 Pluto 3-1
Next Best: #6 Vindicat 6-1
Super Add: #10 Moving Violation 12-1

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 1-7 with 1-4-6-7-8-10 with 1-4-6-7-8-10 with 1-4-6-7-8-10 (2x5x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Jung Man Scot 9-5
Best Value: #1 (POE) Wana Play 12-1
Next Best: #3e Serpe entry 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Blue Horseshoe 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-9
3: 1-2-7
4: 1-6-7-10
5: 1-3-5

2x3x4x3 = $72

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Pletcher AE-12 Ruff and Ready a major player if drawing in…

Best Value: #9 Big Jerome 10-1
Most Likely: #10 Skagerrak 6-1
Next Best: #8 Big Stick 5-1
Super Add: #5 Gaelic Storm 10-1

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very difficult turf route for juvies.. Confusing bunch..

Most Likely: #8 Petecarol 4-1
Best Value: #4e Ramsey entry 12-1
Next Best: #5 Novel Notion 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Straight Talk 10-1

8th: John Morrissey-NYB, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Driven by Success 1-1
Best Value: #4 Ferocious Fires 5-1
Next Best: #5 Premium Wine 4-1
Super Add: #7 Law Enforcement 6-1

9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Lyke a Hurricane 8-1
Most Likely: #8 Separatist 3-1
Next Best: #4 Double Domino 6-1
Super Add: #9 Paul’s Ace 8-1

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Live on the Edge 5-2
Best Value: #5 Big Flirt 10-1
Next Best: #10 Cullinan 7-2
Super Add: #4 Mendelssohn 9-2

<$75 P4 Play:

High wire act.. A nearly impossible sequence..

7: 1-3-4-5-8-10
8: 1-4
9: 4-7-8
10: 3-5

6x2x3x2 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Ended Spa Week 1 on a very high note as nearly everything in the first three quarters of the card went my way. Opener produced $414 super before the 2nd delivered the $75 exacta and $300 tri. In the third, Tagg’s Overlap might have been small in stature, but was big on the board ($23.20) with the $257 P3 a nice score an hour into the day.

Sheppard’s Sermon of Love wasn’t in my selections directly, but was a ‘must include’ on the P4 play which came in for $1,434 when the quad’s single (Romans’ Tapitsfly) romped home. That ‘swept clean’ the eight P4 plays of the meet’s first six days ($576 invested) and opened a very comfortable profit buffer for the first week.

The message from Monday and Week 1 overall is that despite the tricky reads on the Spa slate, staying the course always pays off… If your handicapping is solid, the horses will run ‘your way’ and you will get paid for your opinion. At Saratoga, sometimes it takes a 5 days and sometimes it takes 5 weeks, but if you have the bankroll and patience, you will score. Hope you did well Monday and are ready for Week 2 of Saratoga!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Madison Avenue 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Driven by Seattle 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1e Contessa entry 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Touch of Perfection 7-2 4th

2nd: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Apple Grove 9-2 8th
Next Best: #1 Ten Carrot Nikki 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Cash Value 8-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Badgette 20-1 4th

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Abundantia 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Catnandu 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Mott entry 9-5 2nd/6th
Exotics Use: #2 Paracaidas 7-2 WON

4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Very interesting race with some well bred 2yo’s going two turns on the lawn.. Shug’s Precipice Trail, half to Carriage Trail, debuts here, and Trombetta stretches out Dixie Chatter sib Novel Notion (#11-AE, 9-2).. Many of the firsters have dams or siblings that were zippy on the grass, and while I’m siding with those that have already had afternoon spins, be cognizant of the numbers debuting from Mott, Weaver (AE) and Pletcher..

Best Value: #8 Paddy O’Prado 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Dean’s Kitten 3-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Lucky Lead 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Mill Pond 20-1 8th

5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Submerge 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Eager Emma 6-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Rosie’s Promises 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Two Moons 6-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4
3: 1-3-5
4: 5-8-10
5: 2-4-6-9

2x3x3x4 = $72

6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Too Amenable 3-5 WON
Best Value: #5 One Diamond 20-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Marscaponi 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 (AE) SCR

7th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Easy Ashley 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 Lost Without You 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #9 Seminole Lass 12-1 5th

8th: De La Rose (L), F&M-4+, 1m-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #2e Godolphin-Darley entry 6-5 WON/5th
Best Value: #5 Modern Look 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1e Haras Santa Maria de Araras entry 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 (AE) SCR

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Fateh Field 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Mesa Sunrise 9-2 7th
Best Vaue: #9 SCR
Super Add: #7 Echo in Eternity 6-1 6th

$150 P6 Play:

4: 5-8
5: 2-4-6-9
6: 10
7: 5-7-9
8: 1-2-5
9: 10

2x4x1x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (5-6-10-5-2-5) 5 Correct Paid $37.40

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 10
7: 1-5-7-9
8: 1-2-5
9: 3-4-5-6-7-10

1x4x3x6 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (10-5-2-5) 4 Correct Paid $73.50

Spa Sunday couldn’t match Saturday’s intensity as lousy weather dulled the crowd. Still struggling to find P4 paydirt, but isoltated exotic hits and/or OK P3’s continue to justify the efforts. Opener’s $67 tri and $93 1st-3rd P3 got the day going, but Parisella omission in the 5th quashed my early quad try. Schosberg-Fried runaway in the 6th got P3’s going again though, and 6th-8th ($80) and 7th-9th ($70) returns felt overlaid given the relatively easy to find winners.

Was assured of a nice profit on the day in the Fourstardave as the tabs produced $172.75 triple and $819 super in a very exciting affair. For whatever reason, the ‘Dave’ has been a very productive spot for me personally, as a Dr. Kashnikow-Tubrok exacta 10+ years ago provided a similar bonanza, and there have been 1 or 2 other nice hits in this lawn tussle since then. Hope you did well!

Week One concludes Monday with a nice card that likely will lose some, or all, of its’ grass events thanks to a driving downpour before Sunday’s nightcap. Seth Merrow and I are doing ‘Cal to the Post’ this morning on Capital OTB-TV 12 this morning at 10:30. Stream available at http://www.capitalotb.com.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Gracious Victory 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sophisticated Lass 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #2 O’Sotopretty 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 No Rhyme or Reason 10-1 4th

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $18.10
$1 Trifecta (1-2-7) Paid $45.50
$1 Superfecta (1-2-7-5) Paid $414.50

2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Most Happy Fella 2-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Elsaroarin 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #6 Wise Stop 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-6) Paid $75.50
$1 Trifecta (1-6-9) Paid $305

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Off the turf…

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Best Value: #6 Overlap 10-1 WON
Next Best: #2 King Kitten 5-2 5th
Super Add: #1a/1x Pletcher entry 7-2 2nd

$2 Exacta (6-1) Paid $43.25
$1 Pick 3 (1-1-6) 3 Correct Paid $257.00

4th: MSW, 3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Taking the stance that none of the ML favorites are particularly good in oddball race..

Best Value: #7 Lieutenant 12-1 5th
Most Likely: #8 Whirling Thunder 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Chapin Beach 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 En Fuego 4-1 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Off the turf..

OFF THE TURF: 5/WON–9/2nd-10-4

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-7-9
3: 1-2-6
4: 1-2-3-6-7-8
5: 5

4x3x6x1 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (1-6-3-1/2/5/6/11) Paid $1,434

6th: Fleet Indian, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Dance Gal Dance 5-2 WON
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #7 Karakorum Fugitive 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Silvercup Baby 10-1 5th

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Kristi With a K 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Pull Dancer 5-1 WON
Next Best: #12 La Mousse 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Esperanza d’Oro 12-1 10th

8th: 17th Amsterdam (Gr. II), 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Quality Road 6-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Everyday Heroes 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Capt. Candyman Can 7-2 2nd

9th: Tap the Admiral, 3yo, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Scratch Mott’s Tamborim who has been sold..

Most Likely: #1 Royal Vindication 5-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Together Indy 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Jack Spratt 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Golden Mexico 6-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lone Cypress 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Johnny’s Surprise 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Comeback 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 True That 6-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Driven by Saarland 6-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-9
8: 1-4-6
9: 1-9
10: 1-2-4-8

3x3x2x4 = $72

Beautiful afternoon Saturday at the Spa with fun card and big crowd. Was stymied by Retriever (5th) and Kensei (10th) in my multi tries, but some solid opinions (Antitrust; 4th and 6th exactas; Diana tri) scattered about yielded another day of water-treading with OK exotics. Sunday offers yet a 5th afternoon of terrific racing, especially when you fold in Monmouth stakes-laden Haskell Day slate. Hope you did well Saturday…

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent betting race..

Most Likely: #9 Strike the Bell 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Finish in Style 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Dynaslew 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Miss Catalyst 5-1 WON

$1 Exacta (5-3) Paid $25.00
$1 Trifecta (5-3-9) Paid $67.75

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #4 My Man Lars 12-1 WON
Next Best: #8 So It Goes 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Warn 15-1 4th

$1 Exacta (4-8) Paid $13.50

3rd: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Mythical Yarn 7-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Flying Heat 12-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Grace’s Valentine 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Playful Majesty 15-1 3rd (DH)

$1 Exacta (3-2) Paid $8.50
$1 Trifecta (3-2-5) Paid $20.70

4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Golden Guska 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Voodoouthinkur 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Persian 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Carry On the Dream 12-1 9th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Sing My Song 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #4 Chimayo 5-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Magic Appeal 5-1 WON
Super Add: #12 Rose Catherine 10-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-6-8
3: 3-8
4: 3-7-9
5: 4-6-7-12

3x2x3x4 = $72

6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Al’s Deputy 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Goodandacceptable 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Star of New York 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Structural Change 5-1 5th

7th: 25th Fourstardave H. (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very fun betting affair.. Will think about covering certain underlay #8 Kip Deville in multi-race back-ups and go against within race.. #3 Papa Bear (20-1) can be used somewhere too as he isn’t impossible..

Best Value: #4 Cosmonaut 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #1 Cowboy Cal 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Justenuffhumor 4-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Mambo Meister 6-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (6-3) Paid $53.25
$1 Trifecta (6-3-4) Paid $144.25
$1 Superfecta (6-3-4-1) Paid $549.00

8th: Curlin, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Masala 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Blame 6-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Gone Astray 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Anaan 20-1 7th

$1 Exacta (6-5) Paid $21.50

9th: 56th Go for Wand (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Miss Isella 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Spritely 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Godolphin entry 4-5 WON
Exotics Use: #6 Luna Vega 10-1 6th

10th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #1 Rebellious Chic 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Roaring Ghost 3-1 5th
Next Best: #8 For Love Alone 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Properlyintroduced 8-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

Exceedingly difficult quad to negotiate.. Trying to catch some big numbers..

7: 1-2-3-4-7-8
8: 1
9: 1-4-5
10: 1-4-7-8

6x1x3x4 = $72