Dreadful and messy day took a lot of the starch out of the first twilight Friday card, but it wasn’t a total disaster. Laying off the P4’s after the turf decisions resulted in a profitable afternoon with a nice $65 exacta of a box of the 4 tabs in the 4th, and solid $230 tri with the top 3 choices in the 5th. Hope you did OK. Saturday double carryover of $125k and a beautiful day expected should provide for some fun…

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Untopable 8-1
Most Likely: #2 Commodore Way 4-1
Next Best: #7 Malibu Moonshone 4-1
Super Add: #10 Targe 6-1

2nd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Hoopoe 8-1
Next Best: #4 Zimmer 6-1
Exotics Use: #11 Grangerardo
Super Add: #3 Cat in the Sky 20-1

3rd: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 William Thomas 1-1
Next Best: #6 Dixieland Star 3-1
Best Value: #5 Brave Soul 15-1
Super Add: #3 Love My Mondays 8-1

4th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Antitrust 6-1
Most Likely: #8 Soda Jerk 4-1
Next Best: #9 Eagle Strike 6-1
Super Add: #5 Clean Shot 8-1

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Steath Missle 7-2
Next Best: #1 (POE) Unbridled’s Heart 5-2
Best Value: #10 Luv Gov 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Blackberry Road 10-1

<$75 P4 Plays:

2: 9
3: 10
4: 1-5-6-8-9-10
5: 1-5-7-8-10

Wide 1x1x6x5 = 30 x $2 = $60
Prime 1x1x1x2 (Bold) = 2 x $6 = $12

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Discreetly Mine 3-1
Best Value: #9 Selfless 12-1
Next Best: #1e Zayat entry 7-2
Exotics Use: #11 Hockley 8-1

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Carson Hall 8-1
Most Likely: #8 Winchester 5-2
Next Best: #12 Sette E Mezzo 5-1
Super Add: #4 Picou 12-1

8th: Lake Luzerne-NYB, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Really well-matched bunch of Empire damsels.. Any of 7-8 possible. Your call, but don’t shy from including prices…

Most Likely: #5 Love Cove 3-1
Best Value: #2 Here Comes Rita 8-1
Next Best: #6 Chestoria 7-2
Super Add: #8 Sonic Sound 15-1

9th: 71st Diana (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Forever Together 9-5
Best Value: #4 Indescribable 20-1
Next Best: #3 Rutherienne 6-1
Super Add: #6 Carribean Sunset 6-1

10th: 46th Jim Dandy (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Charitable Man 4-1
Next Best: #4 Warrior’s Reward 3-1
Best Value: #1 Saratoga Sinner 6-1
Super Add: #7 Convocation 4-1

11th: CLM./N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #10 White Holiday 8-1
Most Likely: #8 Stevil 7-2
Next Best: #9 Chinese Whisper 5-1
Super Add: #6 Liscarroll 8-1

$200 P6 Play:

6: 2
7: 7-8
8: 2-5
9: 3-4-10
10: 4-5
11: 6-8-9-10

1x2x2x3x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5
9: 3-4-10
10: 4-5
11: 1-6-7-8-9-10

2x3x2x6 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Second day of Spa session was again spent in ‘survival’ mode with clear cut opportunities difficult to identify and capitalize on… A few performers I was counting on were disappointing, but did stay in the hunt on the day with $46.20 ‘Best Value’ MY LUCKY PENNEY coming through. Hope you did OK. Twilight card Friday upon us anchored by a great Lake George and impossible-looking P6 carryover…

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Quonata 4-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Seasons Wise 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 For Free 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Hot and Bothered 3-1 WON

2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Rogue’s Jewel 5-1 5th
Most Likely: #6 Musicsetsmefree 3-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Fair Lady Olivia 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Sugar Trade 5-1 WON

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Morethan Fourhours 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2b All West 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4x Birdrun 4-1 WON

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Key Quality 4-1 10th
Best Value: #12 Rumpus Room 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Kid Kate 8-1 WON
Exotics Use: #11 Taconic Victory 12-1 2nd

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 No Detour 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 True Crusader 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Dancing Digits 9-2 WON
Exotics Use: #9 Telemachus 7-2

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-8
3: 2-4-5
4: 1-3-4-10-11-12
5: 4-7

2x3x6x2 = $72

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Redreamit 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 See the Forest 20-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Mine All Mine 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Dulcet Tone 5-1 3rd

7th: High Rock Spring-NYB, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Joe Corrigan 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #6 Future Prospect 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Stud Muffin 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 R Clear Victory 5-1 WON

8th: 14th Lake George (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Tough, tough set with well-matched group of soph fillies..

CAME OFF THE TURF AFTER FINAL SELECTIONS..

9th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #14 Golden Age 3-1 5th
Next Best: #15 I. M Boomer 7-2 6th
Also Use: #10 Icetate 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

FEATURE COMING OFF NEGATED PLAY..

6: 6-8-11
7: 4-6-7-8
8:
9: 14-15

Spa opener an intoxicating mix of challenging and competitive full field racing, bonanza exotic payouts and a great turnout of eager patrons. Results were nearly exactly what was expected with enough survival hits to stay afloat and one generous exotics road map in the NYB juvenile 5th ($300 tri, $1,800 super). Hope you did OK Day 1!

Driving rain all night should result in off the turf decision at 7:30. Check NYRA website: http://www.nyra.com/trackconditions.html

Don’t forget to watch Andy Serling’s ‘Talking Horses’ streaming daily, and today featuring Dave Litfin: http://www.nyra.com/talkinghorses/index.html

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Kiser Novice (Steeplechase), 4+, 17f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 El Viaje 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Mabou 10-1 DNF
Next Best: #1e Sheppard entry 5-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Blue Rider 12-1 DNF

2nd: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Dakota Dunes 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Brown’s Hill 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Woodacre 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Trusting Heart 6-1 6th

3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Kaper Lake 3-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Chief Export 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Base Commander 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Jazz Nation 9-2 3rd

$1 Exacta $14.30
$1 Trifecta $44.50

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF…

Most Likely: #7 Golden Artemis 6-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Crema d’Oro 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Collar 12-1 WON

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Ramsey entry (#1x most preferred SCR) 2-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Intergalactic 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Survived 4-1 3rd

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Wide open having stayed on the turf.. Not part of either P4, so swing for the fences!

Most Likely: #6 Corey’s Coming 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 My Lucky Penney 15-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Leader of the Lite 10-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Le Chesney 30-1 5th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 The Underling 2-1 8th
Best Value: #11 Simply Spiteful 12-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Kinsey 6-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Celestial Sweep 15-1 9th

8th: Quick Call, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Duffy’s Tavern 8-1 7th
Most Likely: #5 Rebellion 3-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Indian Ashton 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Perfect Officer 8-1 4th

9th: 95th Sanford (G2), 2yo, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Bulls and Bears 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Nacho Friend 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Backtalk 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Louisvilleluminary 10-1 3rd

10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Livin Large 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Big Gavel 7-2 DNF
Best Value: #9 Wiseacre 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Ranger James 4-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 13
8: 3-5-8
9: 2-3-4-5-7
10: 3-5-6-8-9

1x3x5x5 = $75

Saratoga arrives today and all is right with the world of racing for the next six weeks. The quality of the fields we will be treated to over the next trio of fortnights goes a long way toward annually renewing the love of the game in wearied players and fans, as well as capturing the hearts of legions of neophytes. It should be a spectacular 36 days of racing, and if today’s mind-bending events are any indication, a very challenging 36 days as well. Best of luck today and warm wishes for a fun and profitable Saratoga!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Stepaside 4-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Smarten Destiny 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Dantastic 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Maccrib Pass 15-1 10th

2nd: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Freedom Rings 2-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Late SCR
Best Value: #6 Royal Valentine 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Cap the Thunder 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $13.70

3rd: James Marvin, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Riley Tucker 2-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Finallymadeit 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Bold Start 4-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Cassoulet 15-1 6th

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Brutally tough ALW..

Best Value: #2 Big Top 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #7 Parc des Princes 5-2 6th
Next Best: #8 Boots Ahead 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Hammock 10-1 2nd

5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 City Trooper 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 One Note Samba 9-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Come From Behind 5-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Save Time for Me 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (8-5) Paid $30.75
$1 Trifecta (8-5-9) Paid $331.00
$1 Superfecta (8-5-9-4) Paid $1,818.00

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-9
3: 2-5-6
4: 2-6-7-8
5: 4-5-8

2x3x4x3 = $72

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bold Abbott 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 SCR (#2 Incalzando 10-1 8th)
Next Best: #4 Fire Wood 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Optimer 4-1 WON

7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Trappe Shot 4-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Westover Wildcat 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 D’bigcat 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Wildcat Nation 10-1 8th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Captain Rio 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Inkado 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Presto Change O 2-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Motor Patrol 12-1 8th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 2-3-7 with 2-3-4-5-7 with 2-3-4-5-7 with 2-3-4-5-7 (3x4x3x2 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

9th: 91st Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Cowgirl Mally 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #1 Hot Dixie Chick 4-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Beauticean 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 SCR (#2 Kinsolving 15-1 9th)

$1 Exacta (1-10) Paid $11.30
$1 Trifecta (1-10-3) Paid $44.75

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super)

LATE OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #2 Spartan King 3-1
Best Value: #3 Hornung 10-1
Next Best: #10 Son of a Chief 8-1
Super Add: #7 Lofty Banner 20-1 [

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8-9
8: 2-3-5-7
9: 1-3-10
10: 2-3-10

2x4x3x3 = $72

Glaring omission of Frank Martin Flying Zee winner in Belmont nightcap Friday cost me a shockingly overlaid $786.50 P4 payoff. Patron Saint didn’t look any better than several when capping initially, but not getting a chance to ammend the plays post-scratches/changes hurt, as Sebastian Morales had been booted in favor of Ramon Dominguez… a significant upgrade. Still not sure why the sequence, with $7.90, $7.10, $10.80 and $4.40 had such inflated will pays. Good news on the day were back to back exotics sweeps mid-card including the $200 tri and $380 super in the 7th.

Later at Del Mar, took deflating beat at the wire on 15-1 single Ale’s Pride to squash P6 C/O try and sizeable win bet. Discussed at length with National Turf’s Bob Selvin on “At the Races” Friday, Ale’s Pride worked a little too hard to make the lead to have enough in the defining stages. This was a heartbreaker with a $33.20 win price hinged on the outcome. Caught three winners in the sequence after that, but no one negotiated the sextet successfully and a $382,000 carry is available today. Expect a $2,000.000 pot for the good skien today.

Hope you did OK Friday and are ready for a fun Saturday that includes Dee Tee running Aldebutante and Kickin N Screamin at Arlington, the Belmont P4, Del Mar C/O and Claiming Crown at Canterbury!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Sydney Road 8-1
Next Best: #11 New Yawker 3-1
Best Value: #6 Prince Dubai 20-1
Super Add: #4 Mr. Petersson 12-1

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Stormy Success 6-1
Most Likely: #7 Extra Zip 8-5
Next Best: #9 Gold Pageantry 6-1
Super Add: #2 Undocumented 20-1

9th: 93rd Copaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Wynning Ride 8-1
Most Likely: #1 Livin Lovin 3-1
Next Best: #8 Funny Moon 5-2
Super Add: #3 Don’t Forget Gil 15-1

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Fair Catch 5-2
Next Best: #1 Winloc’s Big D 3-1
Best Value: #10 Donquityerdayjob 8-1
Super Add: #8 New York Bobby 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 10-11
8: 1-7
9: ALL
10: 1-2

2x2x8x2 = $64

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific and challenging ALW to start P6 with many impossible to toss..

Most Likely: #4 Great Siege 8-1
Best Value: #3 Trumpet Player Jay 15-1
Next Best: #7 Dehere Again 7-2
Super Add: #8 Fiery Trippi 12-1

6th: 24th Fleet Treat (R), Cal-bred 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 ULTRA BLEND 7-2
Best Value: #7 Pretty Unusual 10-1
Next Best: #3 Century Park 5-1
Super Add: #8 Suacey Evening 5-2

7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutally difficult set of nicely-bred and well-meant looking babies..

Most Likely: #10 Tiny Woods 5-1
Best Value: #2 Majestic Peak 8-1
Next Best: #8 Sidney’s Candy 8-1
Super Add: #11 Wings of Sound 12-1

8th: 36th Eddie Read (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Monterey Jazz 2-1
Best Value: #7 Richard’s Kid 20-1
Next Best: #4 Thorn Song 8-1
Super Add: #3 Global Hunter 12-1

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bet On Victor 3-1
Best Value: #1 Spirit of Cochise 12-1
Next Best: #7 Position A 6-1
Super Add: #6 Best Dressed 12-1

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #10 Quality Plus 2-1
Best Value: #6 Class Dismissed 12-1
Next Best: #5 Big Mahogany 7-2
Exotics Use: #14 (AE) Barney Bass 5-1
Super Add: #4 Bonkersforbinkers 10-1

$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-4-7-8-10
6: 6
7: 2-8-10-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 10

6x1x4x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-7-8-10-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 5-6-10

6x1x4x3 = $72

CANTERBURY

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CC Iron Horse, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Calm and Collected 7-2
Best Value: #2 Bright Hall 4-1
Next Best: #4 Mr. Meso 3-1
Super Add: #7 Mr. Grumpy Stripes 10-1

4th: CC Tiara, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #1 Love to Tell 2-1
Best Value: #5 Mizzcan’tbewrong 7-2
Next Best: #6 R Vicarious Girl 3-1

5th: CC Rapid Transit, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Grand Traverse 2-1
Best Value: #4 Pete’s Pride 6-1
Next Best: #2 Max Ahead 5-2
Super Add: #6 All Joking Aside 5-1

6th: CC Express, 3+, 6f (P3, Super)

#8 Ready’s Rocket a major reaction candidate.. Cover in P4 but bet against within race..

Most Likely: #9 Chasing the Prize 7-2
Best Value: #10 Mojito Man 10-1
Next Best: #2 Norjac 4-1
Super Add: #1 Jacob’s Run 12-1

7th: CC Glass Slipper, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Met a Miner 3-1
Best Value: #3 Gatorize 5-1
Next Best: #4 Miranda Diane 4-1
Super Add: #1 Thunder and Belle 6-1

8th: CC Emerald, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #3 Hard Top 10-1
Most Likely: #6 Gran Estreno 4-1
Next Best: #7 T Harry 12-1
Super Add: #12 Spicy Dubai 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-2-4
6: 2-8-9-10
7: 3-4-7
8: 3-6-7-12

3x4x3x4 – 144 x .50 = $72

9th: CC Jewel, 3+, 9f (DD, P3)

Small field but a super competitive race..

Most Likely: #2 Furthest Land 5-2
Best Value: #3 Repenting 8-1
Next Best: #6 Glamour Guy 7-2

10th: Lady Canterbury, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Euphony 9-5
Best Value: #6 Adhsilver 6-1
Next Best: #4 Happiness Is 7-2
Super Add: #7 Lady Carlock 4-1

Good luck!
Steve