What looked like a fun day became a bit of downer with a couple of blah exotic hits but an early exit in the P4. Hope you did OK… Better sequence of races tonight (First post 3pm) and hopefully some formful performances. Del Mar has an $80k carryover which I may get to over the course of the day and will certainly discus on tonight’s “At the Races”…

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Interesting baby race with a number of well bred and sibling types including Crimson Glory (Half to SW Lord Justice), Classic Affair (Half to SW’s Affirmatif and Chitoz), Royalstraightflush (Half to SW Royal Saint) and Embroidery (Half to SW Furthest Land).

Most Likely: #8 Embroidery 3-1
Best Value: #4 Rumors of Glory 6-1
Next Best: #3 Crimson Glory 4-1
Exotics Use: #1e Clement entry 2-1

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Natural Speed 4-1
Next Best: #9 Caesar Beware 7-2
Best Value: #5 Eldoktori 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Awakino Cat 3-1

6th: CLM/N3L, 3yo, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Marq of Love 3-1
Next Best: #2 Close to the Vest 4-1
Best Value: #6 Snowstalker 8-1
Super Add: #1 Ride the Westwind 5-2

7th: MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 All the Bases 5-2
Next Best: #6 Sommelier Smarty 3-1
Best Value: #4 Pax 10-1
Super Add: #7 Magnificent Max 5-1

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #2e Bush entry 2-1
Next Best: #5 Higher Incentive 7-2
Best Value: #4 Mesa Girl 12-1
Exotics Use: #1e Donk entry 7-2

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Best Value: #1 Call the General 6-1
Most Likely: #3 Gold Jig 5-2
Next Best: #2 Main Man Sandy 8-1
Super Add: #8 Our Big Shot 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6
7: 5-6
8: 2-4-5
9: 1-2-3

4x2x3x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Tough to like Lotruglio firster upended the chances for ‘real money’ P4 at Belmont Wednesday. Trigger’s Missle (22-1) refused to let anyone pass in the anchor leg, providing the owner-trainer with his second win of the meet while denying Enduro and the $1,655 Quad payoff that hung in the balance.

Made some money earlier on the card as 6th race 2nd tab (Best Value) Screen Saviour ($19.80) keyed the quality tri ($89.00) and super ($298.50). The carryover produced an $88k payout to 2 savvy tickets.

Later at Del Mar, found the range too late coming up empty in the 7th-8th before catching the late double on top with Wickedandwackyingrid and Saintly Spirit. Hope you did OK. Belmont Thursday as everyone bides their time waiting for next wednesday’s Saratoga opener…

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sweet Madness 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Kissmycheeks 8-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Mine or Who’s 3-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Frisky Rosie 10-1 10th

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Royal Lord 4-1 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Brad’s My Hero 5-2 WON
Next Best: #1 Cough Drop 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Always Fishin 8-1 6th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 5 first/second with 1-2-4-6-8 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x .10 = $6 x 2 = $12)

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Bad bunch of coconuts..

Most Likely: #5 Picnic Rock 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Rousing Kitty 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Simple Western 7-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Lyrical Bobcat 6-1 3rd

7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Hedge Fund 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Americanus 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Sonny’s the One 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Trophy Road 8-5 WON

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Nedjma 7-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Summer Palace 12-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Southside Babe 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 One Tough Belle 8-1 4th

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Stratton’s Girl 7-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Bella Karakorum 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 She’s Smokin Hot 9-2 4th
Super Add: #5 SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-7-8
7: 3-4
8: 4-6-9
9: 4-7-11

4x2x3x3 = $72

Enjoyed vacation away (somewhat) from ‘the game’, and three week stint in Florida, but that special time of the year for Upstate New Yorkers and all horseplayers/race fans is upon us. Saratoga opens a week from today, and broadcasts from Carolina Barbecue in the Spa backyard commence Monday, so back to the ‘foothills’ I go later this morning. Final days of excellent Belmont Spring Meet kick off with a $50k carryover on a fun card, and Del Mar opens with a tough late P4 that features a deep single division of the Oceanside.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Broman entry 2-1 WON
Best Value: #8 SCR
Next Best: #7 SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Freud’s Notebook 6-1 3rd

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 10f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Have You Ever 2-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Propensity 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Winner Jack 5-2 7th

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3D, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Tapaline 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Screen Saviour 8-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Australis Princess 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 We Got Heat 8-1 4th

7th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Es Mia 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Elegant Bess 5-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Won Token 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Deonzion 20-1 8th

8th: The Donor, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bella Allure 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Sunshine for Life 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Bubbly Jane 4-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Nehantic Kat 7-2 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Enduro 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Ajustabull 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Unbridled Cardinal 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Triple Glory 2-1 6th

$200 P6 Play:

4: 1–8/SCR (4-7/SCR)
5: 6-7-9
6: 7 (2)
7: 2-8
8: 2
9: 4-9

2x3x2x2x1x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-7
7: 2-5-7-8-9-10
8: 2-4-6
9: 4-9

2x6x3x2 = $72

DEL MAR

7th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super0

Most Likely: #5 Seminole Native 6-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Capt. Sparrow 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #3 Acclamation 5-1 2nd

8th: 63rd Oceanside, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Meteore 5-2 5th
Best Value: #12 SCR
Next Best: #3 Rendezvous 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 SCR

Note: If #12-AE Nashoba’s Express does NOT draw in, add #10 Backbackbackgone (6-1) to your exotics play as a sub..

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Well-matched and utterly imposible group..

Most Likely: #7 Wickednwackyingrid 5-1 WON
Best Value: #6 No Ka Oi 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Kneeling’s Pride 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Perfect Hostess 8-1 6th

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Saintly Spirit 9-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Prophetize 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Sure Tiz 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Afleet’s Picasso 6-1 7th
High 5 Play: #8 Hannah’s Moment 6-1 9th

$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-8
8: 9
9: 2-5-6-7-9
10: 1-5-8-9-12
3x1x5x5 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

Always challenging to come back off a significant hit, and successful negotiation of Belmont P6 Thursday qualified on that note with an $18,500 return (Plus $1,300 in consos) on the $192 suggestion. Congratulations to the 2 players that won with the 6 ticket and the many who did well on the P4 or sizable exotics that were laid out within the sequence. And sincere thanks to all who were kind enough to call ATR or write me with warm sentiments.

Will strive for a quality afternoon on this eclectic day of racing across the country before taking a much-anticipated vacation in advance of Saratoga. Belmont offers a carryover with the Gr. I Man o’ War, Calder has Summit, Arlington the Million Preview and HollyPark the Gold Cup.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3e Pletcher entry 3-1
Best Value: #7 Novel Notion 10-1
Next Best: #5 Dean’s Kitten 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Mississippi Hippie 9-2

6th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Top It 2-1
Next Best: #3 Flat Bold 8-5
Best Value: #2 Two Brash 5-2

7th: 51st Man o’ War (Gr. I), 3+, 11f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Gio Ponti 5-2
Best Value: #6 Chinchon 12-1
Next Best: #2 Grand Couturier 5-1
Super Add: #4 Marsh Side 8-1

8th: Lottsa Talc-NYB, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Canadian Ballet 5-2
Best Value: #2 Them There Eyes 8-1
Next Best: #3 Merriweather Jessica 7-2
Super Add: #4 SCR

9th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Livin Large 2-1
Best Value: #3 Rock and Rune 12-1
Next Best: #1 Onzain 8-5
Super Add: #7 Goodandacceptable 12-1

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Intercoastal 2-1
Best Value: #7 Masterofthehouse 10-1
Next Best: #1 (POE) Suite Ernie B 5-2
Super Add: #6 Bartletts 20-1

$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-7
6: 2-3-6
7: 2-4-6-9
8: 2-7
9: 2-3
10: 10

2x3x4x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-6-9
8: 2-7
9: 2-3-7
10: 1-7-10

4x2x3x3 = $72

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 19th Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Nighlinger 5-2
Best Value: #8 Possetothemax 4-1
Next Best: #7 Ron Bob and Dave 6-1
Super Add: #4 Lord Robyn 8-1

5th: 34th JJ’s Dream, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Phoe Marybe 5-2
Best Value: #1 Get Your Shine On 10-1
Next Best: #4 Miss Delite 3-1
Super Add: #3 Dashing Debby 10-1

7th: 35th Azalea (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Kays and Jays 3-1
Best Value: #6 Going to the Sun 12-1
Next Best: #5 Donttellmewhattodo 6-1
Super Add: #9 First Passage 8-1

8th: 35th Carry Back (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Not for Silver 4-1
Most Likely: #1 You Lucky Mann 9-5
Next Best: #3 Truest Legend 3-1

9th: 25th Princess Rooney (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Game Face 3-1
Best Value: #5 Pious Ashley 12-1
Next Best: #8 Dubai Majesty 5-1
Super Add: #7 Keep the Peace 6-1

10th: 26th Smile Sprint (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Benny the Bull 6-5
Best Value: #2 How’s Your Halo 4-1
Next Best: #1 Ikigai 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-5-6-7-9
8: 1-3-5
9: 5-6-7-8
10: 4

6x3x4x1 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 70th Hollywood Gold Cup (Gr. I), 3+, 10f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Parading 4-1
Best Value: #3 Mast Track 20-1
Next Best: #10 Life is Sweet 9-2
Exotics Use: #7 Song of Navarone 12-1
Super Add: #4 Bullsbay 8-1

9th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Good Night Gyrene 7-2
Best Value: #6 Coatcheck Girl 6-1
Next Best: #2 Earstoyou 5-2
Super Add: #8 Lavender Touch 6-1

10th: 12th Royal Heroine (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Visit 3-1
Next Best: #6 Gotta Have Her 7-2
Consider: #7 Lemon Chiffon 7-2
Super Add: #3 Tuscan Evening 5-2

11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Lion Princess 2-1
Best Value: #7 Love Song Mellody 15-1
Next Best: #12 Crafty Starlit 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
High 5 Play: #1 Beaudacious Lady 15-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-10
9: 1-2-5-6-8-10
10: 6-8
11: 7-8

3x6x2x2 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Late action at Belmont, already affected by important scratches in the 6th and 8th, went sideways as feared when hard-to-reach Acclimate won the strangely run sequence starter. When deep tickets only number Ed’s Princess took the nightcap, not only was a $35,500 carryover assured, but it tripped the Quad payout to the tune of $9,700. That would mean only an estimated 15 tickets ($2) were able to traverse the skien.

Hope you did OK. Thursday seems more manageable. Also hope you caught Steve Crist on ATR Wednesday night as he introduced Formulator ‘TicketMaker’ on DRF.com. The new service assists your P3, P4, P5 or P6 ticket building utilizing Crist’s A-B-C-X method of main/back-up ducats. Steve also fielded a variety of excellent questions about multi-race wagering.

Link to the archives if you missed it:
http://www.thoroughbredracingradione…2009&Itemid=35

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

Serious SCR’s impacted the sequence. Revisions made but feeling a lot less confident about the play right now…

4th: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Liquid Amber 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Good Prospect 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Raynick’s Fan 6-1 2nd
Trifecta Add: #8 Deputyville 10-1 4th

Play Against: #5 Fuhrever Dancing 3-1 7th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE) SCR
Next Best: #4 SCR
Best Value: #6 Edashor 20-1 4th

Play Against: #3 Moose Man 5-2 6th

6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Three Bridge Road 7-2 WON
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #1 Cops Fever 2-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Always Fishin 15-1 6th

Play Against: #10 Big Gavel 4-1 3rd

7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Golden Weekend 2-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Vinnies Wild Tale 15-1 8th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Marq of Love 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Hedgefund Investor 5-1 7th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE-Only one goes) Treat Gently 8-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Kristi With a K 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Quarayed 12-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Winloc’s Big D 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Ritzy Aly 20-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Royal Lord 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 SCR

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-9
5: 2-5-6-7
6: 1-3
7: 3
8: 1a-4
9: 3-4-9

2x4x2x1x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (3/7/3/2,3,4/1,5/9) Paid $164.00 (5OF6) x 8 = $1,312
$2 Pick 6 (3/7/3/2,3,4/1,5/9) Paid $18,505.00 (6OF6)

$19,817 Total

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 1-3-5-7-9-10
8: 1a-4
9: 3-4-9

2x6x2x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (3/2,3,4/1,5/9) Paid $320.00 (4OF4)

Good luck!
Steve