Tremendously entertaining Holiday Weekend included great coast to coast action and some nice mutuel return anchored by the $1,103 Belmont P4 Saturday. It was a big day Saturday for the ‘house horses’ too, as nearly 30 partners and friends were on hand at Arlington to send Dee Tee Stables runners off to board hits within 90 minutes of each other. Hope you enjoyed summer’s opening salvo and are ready for the final curtain on Hollywood’s spring meet (Gold Cup and more..), Summit of Speed at Calder and much more!

Exceedingly tricky P4 sequence at Belmont Wednesday to start the week… Remember that Steve Crist is my guest 4:30-5:30 on ‘ATR’ as he discusses Formulator’s newest wrinkle: The Crist Method Multi-Race Wager Ticket Constructor.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #5 Api Mohkat 8-1: Should get pace target.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 First Degree 7-2: Suspiciously big drop.. 5th
Super Add: #7 Brooker D 6-1: Can attend and finish.. 6th

7th: Do It Fast-NYB, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific Empire-bred turf heat..

Most Likely: #4 Hangingbyathread 7-2: Likes any footing; Adjust to pace.. WON
Best Value: #8 Borrowing Base 15-1: Quick 0 for ’09, but note Mt. Vernon.. 5th
Next Best: #2 Mission Approved 5-2: Should have company and may want longer.. 4th
Super Add: #5 My Man Lars 6-1: Plus pilot switch; Weaver 0/19 2nd/break? Yikes.. 6th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #10 SCR
Next Best: #5 Papa Bear 4-1: Returns to lawn dash with Ramon.. WON
Best Value: #3 Right of Way 12-1: Chief has gelding on a roll.. 3rd

9th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #10 My Ana Rose 5-1: Back to preferred trip, surface.. 8th
Best Value: #6 August Rush 6-1: Thrown to wolves early on.. 10th
Next Best: #4 Hangingonaprayer 7-2: Broke through last and got rest.. 3rd
Super Add: #3 Sumwhrovrtherainbw 12-1: Badgett eager for turf try.. 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-7
7: 2-4-5-8
8: 5
9: 3-4-6-10

3x4x1x4 = $48

July 4th provided some fireworks with the $1,103 ($1) P4 at Belmont featuring the triple stakes series of Dwyer-Priopress-Suburban. Individual winners Kensei (Dwyer) and Dry Martini (Suburban) paid handsome bonus prices on top, and anchor leg maidenbreaker Evolutionist also drifted north of his ML 4-1 tab. Was pleased to tie the 4 winners together on the Quad play. Hope you did well… Hollywood has the two Gr. I events today as part of a very difficult P4, and though I didn’t look at it, Belmont has a $70k+ carryover you might be interested in… Enjoy the rest of the Holiday weekend safely!

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 8th American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD Super)

Wonderful betting race..

Most Likely: #1 Gozzip Girl 7-2
Best Value: #2 Magical Affair 6-1
Next Best: #5 Rare Ransom 12-1
Super Add: #13 Well Monied 9-2

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Spirit of Cochise 9-2
Best Value: #7 Captain Time 20-1
Next Best: #2 Phantom Wildcat 3-1
Exotics Use: #10 Soda Pop Kid 5-1

10th: 58th Triple Bend (Gr. I), 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Zenzational 6-1
Most Likely: #5 Rebellion 5-1
Next Best: #6 Noble Court 7-2
Super Add: #13 Star Nicholas 20-1

11th:MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Humane 5-1
Best Value: #6 Court Ballado 6-1
Next Best: #12 Faber 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Sister Lucy 6-1
High 5 Play: #9 Flashy Traveler 30-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Tough sequence..

8: 1-2-5
9: 2-3-7
10: 5-9
11: 1-6-11-12

3x3x2x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Got clobbered at Monmouth Friday before getting untracked at Churchill. Entire Monmouth P4 pool was taken down by one ticket to the tune of $40k after a challenging three races and $100-ish winner in the anchor. At CD, got rolling early with overlay winner of the 8th to start the late action. Hope you did OK in advance of the big holiday weekend of action. With 2 Dee Tee Stables runners in at Arlington today, I’m a bit distracted, but the 3 Belmont stakes as part of the P4 is the main wagering focus along with the intriguing stakes at MTH.

Have a wonderful, safe 4th!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 92nd Dwyer (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Warrior’s Reward 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Masala 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Kensei 6-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Just Ben 2-1 6th

9th: 62nd Prioress (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Evans entry 3-1 WON/2nd
Best Value: #2 Luster 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Heart Ashley 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 On the Menu 6-1 7th

10th: 123rd Suburban H. (Gr. II), 3+, 10f (DD, Super)

Very fun edition of this legendary event. Seems to have surprising plus pace scenario so include rallying types and prices. There are no bad plays in this wide open affair..

Most Likely: #4 Asiatic Boy 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Real Merchant 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Dry Martini 6-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Samhoon 20-1 10th

10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Brutally tough way to end tricky sequence! 6-7, maybe 8 different runners eligible here..

Most Likely: #7 Tawaared 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Chapin Beach 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Clement entry 7-5 6th/8th
Super Add: #4 Evolutionist 4-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-4
9: 1-2
10: 2-4-7
11: 1-4-5-7

3x2x3x4 = $72 $2 Pick 4 (3-1-2-4) Paid $1,103.00

MONMOUTH PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 62nd Salvator Mile (Gr. III), 3+, 1m

Best Value: #7 Keep Laughing 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #2 Smooth Air 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Coal Play 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Kiss the Kid 15-1 5th

10th: 56th United Nations (Gr. I), 3+, 11f-T

Most Likely: #7 Presious Passion 9-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Strike a Deal 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Spice Route 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Wesley 10-1 8th

Pretty dreadful day and evening all around Thursday. Hope you did OK despite my poor direction.. Monmouth with two stakes and Churchill with the Bashford look interesting today to start the great Holiday Weekend. 

MONMOUTH PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, F7m-3+, 6f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Chit Chat Cat 5-2
Best Value: #1 Behold a Lady 9-2
Next Best: #7 Summus 7-2
Super Add: #6 Arctic Rain 5-1

8th: Miss Liberty, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Captain’s Lover 7-2
Next Best: #1 All is Vanity 3-1
Best Value: #7 Quiet Meadow 6-1
Super Add: #9 Cozzi Capital 12-1

9th: Mr. Prospector, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Crazily wide open and terrific betting race. Virtually everyone eligible for any slot on the ladder.. 

Most Likely: #4 Timely Advice 7-2
Best Value: #6 Actin Good 8-1
Next Best: #2 Grand Minstrel 10-1
Super Add: #8 Who’s the Cowboy 12-1

10th: NJ-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (Siper)

Most Likely: #3 American Romance 3-1
Best Value: #9 False Idol 6-1
Next Best: #2 Punchin’ Chudy 5-2
Super Add: #4 Spicy McHaggis 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-6-7
8: 1-2
9: 2-4-6
10: 2-3-9

4x2x3x3 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: CLM, 3+, 5f-T ((P4, P3, DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #1 Free Brave 3-1 
Best Value: #5 Orphan Bridge 4-1
Next Best: #3 Lord Robyn 4-1
Super Add: #2 Ebbtide 8-1

9th: ALW/N1 X, F+M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Susie’s Gal 4-1
Best Value: #2 Lady Etienne 10-1
Next Best: #3 Past Twilight 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Elizabeth Park 3-1

10th: 108th Bashford Manor (Gr. III), 2yo, 6f (DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #5 Backtalk
Best Value: #7 Soundman 6-1
Next Best #3 Brassy Boy 5-1
Super Add: #4 Mission Impazible 7-2

11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5) 

Most Likely: #2 Custer County 3-1
Best Value: #4 Ethics Reform 6-1
Next Best: #6 Knockout King 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Kicky Tune 15-1
High 5 Play:: #9 Monkeyinthemiddle 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5
9: 2-3-6-10
10: 3-4-5-7
11: 1-2-4-6

2x4x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64 

Good luck!
Steve

Solid try at the BEL carryover P6 was thwarted Wednesday by Fiona Freud, the perennial also ran that got her 2nd career win in her 25th start in the 5th, where I tried to single Bruce Levine’s Pea Stone. Upon further review, I’m not disappointed with the decision, as the 11-2 Roddy Valente runner, who normally seeks a just-off stalker’s trip, had traffic trouble trying to rally after a slow start and only missed by a length and a half. 

That was bad luck as the rest of the sequence went the right way for a $3,700+ 6/6 payday and $45 5/6 conso. A Pea Stone win over the 3-2 Fiona Freud boosts that sextet return to by perhaps three times, so I came away feeling OK about the attempt which dropped in cost to $144 after the early scratch of We Get It from the nightcap. Caught the late P4 for $127, so the expenses of the day were more than acceptable given the mutuel potential had everything broken perfectly. Hope you did well. A little Belmont and the final Churchill nightswimming are today’s glances. 

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Violette entry (Only one goes; Both good) 9-2
Best Value: #4 Consort 10-1
Next Best: #2b (POE) Discreetly Mine 5-2 (Only one goes)
Exotics Use: #7 Insightful 6-1

5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Star Player 5-2
Best Value: #2 Blue Bullet 8-1
Next Best: #1 Thunder Minister 5-1
Super Add: #3 Iron Curtain 4-1

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Ten Carrot Nikki 3-1
Best Value: #4 Smokin Pistol 8-1
Next Best: #9 Crimson’s Gold 7-2

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 I’llthinkofsumthin 6-1
Best Value: #7 Trillium 20-1
Next Best: #1 What She Said 5-2
Exotics Use: #2e Jacobson entry 4-1

OFF THE TURF: 9-7-10

Trifecta Spot Play: 5-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 (2x4x3 = $24)

8th: NYB-Wandering Cloud, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Northern Netti 2-1
Next Best: #1 Dance Gal Dance 5-2
Best Value: #4 Muffy 6-1

9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Better Than Swiss 5-2
Best Value: #1 Cherry Lady 9-2
Next Best: #7 By the Sky 4-1
Super Add: #8 Royal Valentine 5-1

@$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-7
7: 1-2-5-6-7
8: 1-6
9: 1-2-7-8

2x5x2x4 = $80

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Atomic Force 9-2
Best Value: #8 Barishnikov 5-1
Next Best: #6 Insider 3-1
Super Add: #7 Cape Doctor 4-1

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (

Most Likely: #9 Half Crafty 5-1
Best Value: #7 Dabeed 10-1
Next Best: #1 Bottle of Smoke 7-2
Super Add: #8 Dr. Fever 12-1

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 (AE) Fancy Fiona 3-1
Next Best: #10 Sealed Bid 4-1
Best Value: #8 La Milanesa 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Cruisin’nthebridle 3-1
High 5 Play: #2 Queen of Empire 5-1

7th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #4 Step Out Smartly 3-1
Best Value: #5 Honest to Betsy 5-1
Next Best: #6 Catera 2-1

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 6-8-9
5: 1-7-8-9
6: 7-8-10-AE/11
7: 4-5-6

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

8th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Fiftycentsondollar 4-1
Best Value: #8 Aztec King 8-1
Next Best: #3 Inquisition 7-2
Super Add: #6 Izzy Ali 5-1

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Special Clearance 4-1
Best Value: #6 Hitch Your Wagon 9-2
Next Best: #4 A. M. Due 5-1
Super Add: #8 Sister Lou Ann 3-1

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Squander 15-1
Most Likely: #3 Itain’tover 7-2 
Next Best: #4 Senor Fuego 6-1
Super Add: #5 Tintim Por Tintim 5-1

11th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Fort Apache 7-2
Next Best: #2 Icetate 3-1 
Best Value: #3 Iftheshoefits 12-1
Exotics Use: #6 Super Nekia 12-1
High 5 Play: #5 Niobrara 4-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-8
9: 2-3-4-6-8
10: 1-3-4-5-7
11: 2-11

3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve