Leaving for Florida shortly this a.m., but here’s the glance at Belmont’s $50k-ish P6 carryover!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DDSuper)

Little to go on.. Spread as widely as you can afford..

Most Likely: #1 Rose Catherine 3-1
Best Value: #3 Quantitativeeasing 8-1
Next Best: #2 Magic Appeal 10-1
Super Add: #4 More Amour 15-1

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Pea Stone 10-1
Most Likely: #4 Fiona Freud 3-1
Next Best: #6 Bikini 5-1
Exotics Use: #11 Bella Cherokee 6-1

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Four Star General 3-1
Best Value: #9 Portable Alpha 9-2
Next Best: #8 Coach Fruscio 4-1
Super Add: #1 Franklin Delano 12-1

7th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8,5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Kaliegh Rose 2-1
Best Value: #6 Fourth Chapter 8-1
Next Best: #2 Bobs Pinup Girl 3-1
Super Add: #8 Frisky Rosie 8-1

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #4 Il Postino 6-1
Most Likely: #6 Hurricane Heat 5-2
Next Best: #7 El Tamberito 2-1

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Timber Cruise 3-1
Best Value: #7 We Get It 8-1
Next Best: #9 Triple Glory 6-1
Super Add: #10 My Boy JJ 15-1

<$300 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-3-4-5-8
5: 9
6: 4-9
7: 2-5-6
8: 4-6
9: 7-8

6x1x2x3x2x2 = 144 x $2 = $288

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-8-9
7: 2-5-6
8: 4-6
9: 7-8-9-10

3x3x2x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Though some very tough to figure horses derailed the multi-race plays, Saturday performance generally suffered at the hands of the long Friday. Big Jerome’s jump up effort at Belmont and shocker Ez Dreamer in the IA Sprint sent the quad returns to the moon, with the entire Prairie Meadows pot being taken down by one ticket for $17,250 ($2), two ($8,625-$1) or four ($4,312-.50). Hope you did OK.

$120,200 Carryover at Hollywood today; $150,000+ Turbo Woodbine again; Fun P4 at Belmont…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Won Token 5-2
Best Value: #8 Cap the Thunder 8-1
Next Best: #7 Saratoga Tiger 8-1
Super Add: #3 Lady At the Lake 9-2

8th: 32nd First Flight (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Sunday Geisha 4-1
Most Likely: #3 Porte Bonheur 5-2
Next Best: #1 Carolyn’s Cat 2-1

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Fairway Drive 5-2
Next Best: #4 R J’s Brigade 4-1
Best Value: #8 Bullara 8-1
Super Add: #9 Dr Rico 8-1

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #8 Chorus Music 8-1
Most Likely: #3 Sax in the City 3-1
Next Best: #5 Vivi’s Book 5-1
Super Add: #2 Tooralooracollora 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7-8-11
8: 3-5
9: 3-4-8-9
10: 3-5-8

3x2x3x4 = $72

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6,P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Rios in Right 7-2
Next Best: #6 Trojan Monkey 5-2
Best Value: #4 Disposition 15-1
Super Add: #3 Bear’s Speedster 4-1

6th: 55th Bison City (R), 3yo-CND Fillies, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #1 RETRACEABLE 2-1
Best Value: #5 Double Malt 12-1
Next Best: #4 High Mist 7-2

7th: ON-MSW, 2yo, 4.5f (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #9 Grittani 5-2
Best Value: #4 Where’s the Fire 7-2
Next Best: #1e Asmussen entry 4-1 (Only one goes)

8th: 72nd My Dear, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #11 Truth and Justice 6-1
Most Likely: #4 Franny Freud 3-1
Next Best: #5 Midst 3-1
Super Add: #1 Singandprayfurrherr 10-1

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Upmarket Girl 7-2
Best Value: #6 Hope’s Pass 8-1
Next Best: #7 Solar Flight 9-2

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stormy Illusion 5-2
Best Value: #10 Showboater 10-1
Next Best: #12 Drama 4-1
Super Add: #1 Pensy 15-1

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-6
6: 1
7: 4-9
8: 4-5-11
9: 6-10
10: 1-2-10-12

2x1x2x4x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-9
8: 4-5-11
9: 6-7-10
10: 1-2-10-12

2x3x3x4 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CA-MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Scofield Barracks 5-2
Best Value: #5 Al N Con 5-1
Next Best: #8 Limited Will 7-2
Super Add: #2 Lethal Dose 9-2

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ms. Olympio 7-2
Best Value: #7 Mini Do 6-1
Next Best: #6 Sovine 3-1

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Simply Put 9-5
Best Value: #6 Sweeterthantheday 5-1
Next Best: #8 Bit of a Lady 4-1
Super Add: #1 Red White and Brew 7-2

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

The 2 Bafferts can both certainly win, but Headley and Eurton runners, and even Guillot’s, are more interesting win candidates at bonus mutuels.

Best Value: #3 Dish the Dirt 8-1
Most Likely: #1 Supermodel 8-1
Next Best: #9 Underground 9-5
Super Add: #5 Shehadmefromhello 15-1

8th: 44th Beverly Hills (Gr. II), F&M-43+, 10f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Black Mamba 6-5
Best Value: #4 You Lift Me Up
Next Best: #2 Toque de Queda 2-1

9th: CLM, 3+, 7.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #2 Justinplace 4-1
Next Best: #4 Anziyan’s Song 4-1
Best Value: #8 County Tune 12-1
Exotics Use: #3 Crimson Star 2-1
High 5 Play: #9 Nene 12-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-5-7-8
5: 4-6-7
6: 4-6
7: 1-3
8: 3
9: 2-4

4x3x2x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-6-8
7: 1-2-3-5-9
8: 3
9: 2-3-4-8-9

3x5x1x5 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

Another fun Friday of action. While there were some solid hits (Churchill R4-7 P4 – $243), a lot of money was left on the table missing the anchor legs of the late Churchill and Prairie Meadows Quads. Including $29 Iowa Derby winner DUKE OF MISCHIEF was a plus when he was left largely ignored and MOONPORT was being heavily overbet. Belmont and Prairie P4’s again today and a couple of interesting stakes. Hope you did OK ‘late night’…

NOTE: No changes possible today…

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Piazza Di Spagna 4-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Relatively Ready 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 System Restore 30-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Pegasus Tommy D 3-1 4th

OFF THE TURF: 12-8-9-11

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Parc des Princes 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #10 So It Goes 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Big Al 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 North Country 12-1 11th

OFF THE TURF: 12-6-2B-14

9th: 53rd Mother Goose (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Rachel Alexandra 1-5 WON
Next Best: #5 Flashing 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 SCR

10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Separatist 2-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Saratoga Steve 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Western Connection 8-1 2nd-DQ’d from win
Super Add: #12 Wiseacre 12-1 9th

OFF THE TURF: 15-1A-12-13

<$75 P4 Plays:

$2 Main (Rachel Alexandra single):

7: 2-6-7-9
8: 3-4-10
9: 3
10: 4-7

4x3x1x2 = 24 x $2 = $48

$1 Back-up (Flashing single):

7: 2-6-7-9
8: 3-4-10
9: 5
10: 4-7

4x3x1x2 = $24

MONMOUTH PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th (4:50pm): 33rd Boiling Springs (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Three top choices (3, 5, 7 and all under 7-2) are NO BETTER than the rest.. Demand square prices on whomever you use. Chaotic result will be no surprise here..

Best Value: #8 Blind Date 8-1 7th
Most Likely: #5 Bluegrass Princess 5-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Sandi’s Ready 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Mary’s Follies 6-1 WON

PHILADELPHIA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: Donald LeVine Mem. H., 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Kodiak Kowboy 8-5 WON
Best Value: #7 Cassoulet 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Acting Zippy 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Whistle Pig 7-2 4th

WOODBINE

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: 107 King Edward H. (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3)

#3 Rahy’s Attorney (2-1) looms likely, but #1 Sterwins is a vulnerable second choice at 5-2. Using two square prices under top choice..

Most Likely: #3 Rahy’s Attorney 2-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Wollemi Pine 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Balletti 6-1 3rd

PRAIRIE MEADOWS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Iowa Sprint H., 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Native Ruler 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Silver Edition 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Semaphore Man 9-2 3rd

8th: Iowa Distaff, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #3 Euphony 6-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Day of Victory 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Bear Now 9-5 2nd

9th: Cornhusker H. (Gr. II), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Stonehouse 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #2 My Pal Charlie 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Jonesboro 7-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Shadowbdancing 5-1 2nd

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 1-2 over 1-2-5-6-8 over 1-2-5-6-8 over All (2x4x3x5 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

10th: IA-CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #5 The Cliff’s End 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Six Gun Smokin 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Friendly Glide 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Broken Connection 12-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3
8: ALL
9: 1-2
10: 3-4-5-6-7

2x5x2x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

Fun afternoon of racing at Belmont finished up OK with modest $230 P4 hit that covered the day’s investment adequately. On top nightcap winner I’ve Got Speed also keyed a similar payoff for the $1 Super. Missed the early P4 though, a chalky $50 sequence, when stupidly overlooking the KMc baby Dahlgren Chapel. Hope you did well on a good prequel to another big Friday night of racing with Belmont (Twilight card), Churchill (Night card and $33k C/O), Prairie Meadows (3yo Stakes card) and Hollywood (Late night card) keeping you busy from 3pm-1:30am EST!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th (5:32pm): NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 A Word to the Wise 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #2 Saarlandisourland 5-2 WON
Next Best: #7 World Express 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Lyrical Bobcat 15-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

A very difficult group with potential for ‘jump-up’ horses..

Most Likely: #2 Chinese Whisper 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Hot Pace 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Alabama Man 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Triple Honor 10-1 5th

8th: The Perfect Sting, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Strike the Bell 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Dynaslew 7-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Dame Ellen 4-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Fast Tigress 5-1 6th

9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

CANCELLED

Most Likely: #5 Tobruk 5-1
Best Value: #10 Munition 12-1
Next Best: #2 Woodrunner 7-2
Super Add: #7 Puregoodniss 20-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Very challenging sequence..

6: 2-3-7
7: 2-7-10-11
8: 6-10
9: 2-5-10

3x4x2x3 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th (7:29pm): ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Fortheboysatthebar 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Quiet Alice 9-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Alley Theater 4-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Suz Slew 5-1 5th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Five Plus Five 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Oscar De La Thorn 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 McTapit 8-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Missaintbehavin 15-1 9th

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Feminine Flair 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Hyper Hannah 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 See the Future 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Turn to Bernstein 4-1 10th
High 5 Play: #7 How Regal 10-1 4th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Candid Image 4-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Charlie V 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 My Little Connor 2-1 5th
Super Add: #6 An Heir of Magic 9-5 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 2-4-9
5: 1-2-3-5-6-7-9-11
6: 3-5-8
7: 4-5

3x8x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 .50 Pick 4 (4-1-8-4) Paid $243.15

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Son of a Chief 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Checksandbalances 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Essence of Speed 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Ksar Ghilane 5-2 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Autry 3-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Captain Bayne 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 All West 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Matching Whites 5-1 6th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Blue Whistler 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Tar Beach 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Miro 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Zion 5-1 3rd

11th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #12 Capt Obvious 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Begriff 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Baku Breeze 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 John Kelly 9-2 WON
High 5 Play: #1 Option 8-1 9th

<$75 P6 Play:

6: 8
7: 3-4-5-6
8: 3-4
9: 1-5-8
10: 3-7
11: 6-12

1x4x2x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-4-5-7
9: 1-5-8
10: 2-3-5-6-7
11: 6-12

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

PRAIRIE MEADOWS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: 16th Saylorville, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Lady Chace 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Miranda Diane 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Sly Storm 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Adhsilver 8-1 5th

8th: 11th Iowa Oaks (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Peach Brew 5-1 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Sweet Relish 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Hooh Why 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Hightap 4-1 WON

9th: 11th Iowa Derby, 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 MOONPORT 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Duke of Mischief 10-1 WON
Next Best: #9 His Greatness 5-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Proceed Bee 9-2 5th

10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y

Most Likely: #5 Karl’s Speed Demon 5-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Service Hawk 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Richard entry 2-1 2nd/4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-8
8: 2-4-5-7
9: 6-7
10: 1-4-5

3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

It was over, just like that… Rolled through the first four legs of the Belmont P6 double carryover, which reached nearly $700,000 Wednesday, until Crazy Catlady jumped up in the feature and did something she doesn’t do often: win. Couldn’t even nab a conso in the nightcap either. Uggh. P6 paid a robust $33,000+, but the value was the Late P4 which kicked out a superb $5k+…

Back for the full card today. Hope you did OK before the wheels fell off the wagon.

POST-SCRATCHES

NOTE: Card heavily impacted by numerous scratches…

1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, NO SUPER)

Most Likely: #8 Blitzensfoxyvixsin 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Tide Runner 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Hailey Keen 4-1 6th

Super Add: #7 Boss Tiffany 4-1 WON

2nd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD — NO TRIFECTA)

Most Likely: #3 Lord Snowden 2-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Mr. Unstoppable 5-1

2nd

3rd: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, NO SUPER)

Terrific race..

Most Likely: #3 Joe Corrigan 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Overextended 12-1 6th

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

SCR Original ‘Next Best’ #3 Save Time for Me

Most Likely: #5 Elsaroarin 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 City Trooper 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Cayo Hueso 5-2 5th

Most Likely: #6 Extra Zip 2-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Into the Wind 4-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Riptide 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Moon ala Mode 8-1

2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5
3: 1-3-5-6-7
4: 4-5-8
5: 6-7

2x5x3x2 = $60

Most Likely: #4 Sezzana 4-1 WON
Best Value: #1e Imperio ownership entry 9-2 3rd/7th
Next Best: #7 Imthequeenofqueens 6-1 4th

Best Value: #6 McVictory 10-1 5th
Most Likely: #5 Lisa B 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 My Dear Annie 10-1 7th

SCR Original ‘Next Best’ #4 Remarkable Remy & ‘Best Value’ #6 Tulipmania

Most Likely: #5 Nehantic Cat 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Southside Babe 12-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Absolute Heaven 5-1

9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-T (Super)

SCR Original top pick, ‘Best Value’ #4 Intiyaco 6-1

Most Likely: #6 I’ve Got Speed 3-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Matt’s a Giant 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Doc N Roll 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Can’t Refuse 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-7
7: 1-5-6-8
8: 2-5-10
9: 6-10

3x4x3x2 = $72