Spa session commences its’ second half Wednesday with $42k+ carryover and excellent Gr. II filly stake featured. Wrapped Week 3 in pretty much the same fashion as majority of the previous 17 days, with enough Best Value/Most Likely winners producing modest plus results. First half of meet ended with bankroll in profitable position (+$1,100), though the overall feeling is one of missed opportunities for big scores. The $2,500+ in 2 first half P4 hits pretty well covered the 18 days of Quad play, so the profits have been accrued elsewhere. Come away from the meet’s opening half feeling like I’m grinding out any success, with 6-7 tabs on isolated big price winners, assorted trifecta key hits and $1,000+ in rolling P3’s Sunday 8/16 the difference between being up or down. May not be a flashy way of winning, but it beats the alternative.

Carryover looks very tricky Wednesday, but what a great way it would be to start the run to Labor Day… Hope you’ve been doing well and are enjoying “At the Races” and Derby Trail.com coverage of Saratoga. Good luck the rest of the way!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2X Dressmaker 5-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Afleet Alexandra 12-1 WON
Next Best: #9 R Vicarious Girl 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Sneaky Girl 5-2 2nd

$1 Trifecta (6-10-9) Paid $235.00
$1 Exacta (6-10) Paid $49.50

2nd: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Chippewa Court 6-1 WON-DQ’d to 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Speechifying 5-2 2nd-Placed 1ST
Next Best: #1 Fashion Queen 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Victory for M’lady 7-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $14.30
$1 Trifecta (6-2-4) Paid $47.75
$1 Daily Double (6-6) Paid $32.00
$1 Superfecta (6-2-4-1) Paid $130.00

3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Rodman 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1e Levine entry 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Banking Holiday 5-1 4th

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $6.60
$1 Pick 3 (6-6-3) 3 Correct Paid $124.00

4th: OC/C, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Miss Diane 3-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 Union Waters 2-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Vivid Colors 5-2 3rd

5th: From New York to Old York, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 More to the Story 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Starfish Bay 8-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Gemswick Park 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Huge 12-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-6
3: 1-3
4: 1-3-4
5: 1-4-7-9

3x2x3x4 = $72

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Overnight thunderstorm may have finally soaked the turf course well enough to give it.. well.. some give, after 10 days of hard/fast, speed-favoring lawn conditions.. Tricky and deep set here that could be make/break race in P6-C/O sequence..

Best Value: #1 Redreamit 15-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Why West 7-2 4th
Next Best: #10 Bum Bum 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Sobee 12-1 7th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Pretty B 5-2 8th
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 3-1 4th/5th
Best Value: #9 Beautiful Song 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 House of Grace 12-1 WON

$1 Exacta (8-9) Paid $258.00

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Aunt Mabel 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Akonite 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 First to Come Home 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Skip Away Belle 8-1 2nd

9th: 93rd Adirondack (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Beautician a SCR due to a colic episode Sunday night..

Most Likely: #1 Dashing Debby 7-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Sassy Image 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Camille’s Appeal 5-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Decelerator 9-2 9th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 1-9 with 1-4-6-9 with 1-4-6-9 with ALL (2x3x2x6 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super0

Fascinating state-bred turf route may not be what it seems it all. Several in here ‘have a look’ at prices including lighter-raced runners from winless barns (#5 Regal Refrain-DiPrima @ 10-1; #10 Ryan and Jack-P. Kelly @12-1) out of same race that produced NYB stake placer Livin Large. #7 Bullstar (2-1) and #4 Wiseacre (7-2) were 2nd/3rd in that event of course, and are likeliest types, but both have had their chances (8th and 7th starts respectively) and failed.. Recalling that these nightcaps have produced some oddball results, note grass bullet from 50-1 #6 Nugget of Wisdom..

Best Value: #1 Monastir 5-1 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Bullstar 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Wiseacre 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Mr. Hooker 4-1 WON

$200 P6 Play:

5: 4-9
6: 1-5-10
7: 1-4
8: 3
9: 1-9
10: 1-7

2x3x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4
8: 2-3-9
9: 1-6-9
10: 1-5-7-10

2x3x3x4 = $72

First half of breakneck Spa meet concludes Monday on the heels of a wild weekend featuring many a mind-blowing mutuel melee. Culmination of the price horse frenzy came Sunday with a $120,000 double carryover payoff. Went frustrating 4 of 6 on a modest $192 ticket, (given the stunning $1.3 million pool). Upon the day after recap, a larger investment into the opportunity was likely warranted to have true potential to take down the excellent return. Ninth race 3rd choice Citifest was left off the big ticket, and while I played against nightcap ML 2nd choice Smart Trade, she certainly was a serious player to consider for the sextet. Wasn’t unhappy with the attempt, though consos would have been nice…

The good news was a series of terrific rolling P3’s with ‘most likely’ and ‘best value’ horses that started for $306 with One Note Samba-Strategic Mission-Whisked Away (6th-8th), continued to Citifest (7th-9th) for a gaudy $627, and finished with Banrock (8th-10th) for $230. The best horse/play of the day, and key to everything that worked Sunday, was Mott’s ‘on top’ Best Value Whisked Away in the 8th ($22.80). He hung on to best Shug’s Siren Serenade, who looked like a refuse-to-win type to me, and made the day an excellent way to offset the misses generated the last few tumultuous days.

Hope you did well! Seth Merrow and I on Capital OTB-12’s ‘Call to the Post’ this morning 10:30-11:30, with guests Tim Ice (Summer Bird), Lonnie Goldfeder (DRF) and Mike Kane (Hall of Fame). You can watch the stream at http://www.capitalotb.com. Join me for the weekend recap later on “At the Races”, 4-7pm on Sirius 126/XM 104…

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Sciacca’s #7 San Naa is a talented but highly quirky animal who is as liable to refuse to leave the gate or pull himself up as he is to run to his ability and hit the board. Use at own risk..

Most Likely: #4 Voodoouthinkur 3-1
Next Best: #8 Another Success 2-1
Best Value: #2 Bohemia Street 6-1
Super Add: #7 San Naa 12-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: KMc debuts a chestnut son of the wonderful 1997 Champion 3yo filly Ajina (#8 Ready for Change) here. As great as she was on the racetrack, Ajina has been largely unproductive as a mother, and this A.P. Indy colt (6-1 ML) likely ends up overbet for the task at hand today..

Most Likely: #6 Antenna 7-2
Best Value: #4 Indian Council 5-1
Next Best: #1 Successful Score 3-1
Super Add: #3 Exhi 4-1

3rd: OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Gayego 6-5
Next Best: #2 Lantana Mob 4-1
Best Value: #6 Tend 10-1

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Refined Elegance 2-1
Next Best: #7 Australis Princess 7-2
Best Value: #5 Sky Fever 12-1
Super Add: #9 Great Gracie Dane 8-1

5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Pace battle looms here between #10 Close to the Vest from Schosberg and Epley invader #8 Super Nekia. One could be lone speed if either was to be compromised at the break..

Most Likely: #10 Close to the Vest 7-2
Best Value: #8 Super Nekia 8-1
Next Best: #6 Marq of Love 3-1
Super Add: #5 Perfect Vow 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-4-6
3: 2-4
4: 4-7-9
5: 6-8-10

4x3x2x3 = $72

6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Casa Di Vino 7-2
Best Value: #1 Dreary Day 12-1
Next Best: #8 American Land 3-1
Super Add: #6 Driven by Royalty 8-1

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Banker’s Buy 9-2
Best Value: #9 Vicarious 8-1
Next Best: #6 Sister’s Speed 7-2
Super Add: #8 Driven by Seattle 5-1

8th: Troy, 4+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Yikes.. Utter scramble and a fun betting race..

Most Likely: #4 Sixthirteen 6-1
Best Value: #9 Due Date 8-1
Next Best: #5 True to Tradition 4-1
Super Add: #6 Storm Treasure 10-1

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #7 Langley Park 8-1
Most Likely: #4 Mimi’s Kids 5-2
Next Best: #3 Try Your Best 3-1
Super Add: #5 Miss Nick 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Brutally difficult sequence..

6: 1-5-6-8-9
7: 2
8: 4-5-9
9: 3-4-5-6-7

5x1x3x5 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

Crazy Saturday at Spa produced one improbable result after another crowned by Telling’s stunning shocker in the Gr. I Sword Dancer. The Steve Hobby trainee earned his first stake win (!) eclipsing a veteran group of black type turfers at 33-1. 10yo Better Talk Now and 8yo Brass Hat rounded out the $9,000 tri while Gentleman Chester, from Hobby pal Ralph Nicks and out of the same Arlington H. prep, tripped the $80,000 super.

Earlier,

Odd day selecting Friday with early scores in the first (All exotics inside box including $2.4k Super) and second (Top four straight) and then a lull till later in the card (7th-9th P3). Beaten in last by $50 Suffolk surprise who was not impossible by any means making first start versus conditioned claimers. P4 paid $5,888 too, but carryover also a result. Was occupied with truly wonderful day of Hall of Fame induction activities including ATR visits from Bob Baffert, Mike Pegram, Janet Eliot, Charley Fenwick, Kent Desormeaux and Graham Motion. Hope you did well Friday, enjoyed the At the Races coverage and are ready for a great weekend!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Chief Export 5-1
Most Likely: #1a Hurricane Heat 2-1
Next Best: #7 Double or Nothing 5-1
Super Add: #5 Gimmearoutine 8-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Liston 3-1
Best Value: #9 Callide Valley 10-1
Next Best: #3 World Record 6-1
Super Add: #7 Brother Bird 4-1

3rd: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Close Encounter 8-1
Most Likely: #4 Hot Minute 4-5
Next Best: #8 Inherit the Gold 6-1
Exotics Use: #1e Serpe entry 5-1

4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Strong Commitment 5-2
Best Value: #6 Keep Thinking 5-1
Next Best: #8 Count Catamount 7-2
Super Add: #9 History Starts Now 12-1

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tawaared 4-1
Next Best: #9 Peace Wine 5-2
Best Value: #4 Captiva Pass 10-1
Super Add: #8 Tigresco 7-2

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-9
3: 4-5-8
4: 2-6
5: 3-4-8-9

3x3x2x4 = $72

6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Start of carryover, and hard to accept that there isn’t a first timer here that will be better than the obvious ones coming out of several races against each other. Even 30-1 Pappy’s Double H (#7) may be OK and worth a glance after losing all chance early in his 7/11 debut that produced Hot Minute (4-5 fave in today’s 3rd), and next out at Spa demolisher Al’s Deputy (Schosberg). Other interesting numbers include #5 Marsh Haven (8-1), luring Ramon Dominguez who rarely rides for capable Charlton Baker, and bulleting #10 Saginaw (6-1) from Seth Benzel who has a plus ROI ($2.18) with firsters. Very tricky start to the P6…

Best Value: #5 Marsh Haven 8-1
Most Likely: #6 African Knight 5-2
Next Best: #1e Levine entry 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Pappy’s Double H 30-1

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

As usual for Empire breds at this distance and class, a tremendously well-matched group that makes for a wild wagering affair where you simply must demand value. #4 Globemaster (5-2) may very well win as Penna is on a remarkable roll and the Forbidden Apple gelding moved up nicely in his turf bow maiden-breaker last time. However, he is sure to be overbet and is not any faster or better coming in than many signed on. While Maragh is certainly capable, Dominguez notably sides with #6 Quiet On the Tee (3-1) who is also just OK. #3 Tobruk (5-1) from My Man Sciacca and Crazy Phil Marcantonio, is a hard luck gelding that is always competitive but constantly falling short. Another tough set in the 2nd leg of the C/O sextet, and a great spot to swing for the fences..

Best Value: #1 Fortissi More 8-1
Priced Right: #2 Munition 8-1
Next Best: #5 Dos Hombres 12-1
Super Add: #8 Prince Dubai 15-1

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stroll for Acure 7-2
Best Value: #8 Key Victory 20-1
Next Best: #4 Good Question 6-1
Super Add: #10 Spartan King 6-1

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Outstanding ALW group..

Most Likely: #5 Thabazimbi 3-1
Best Value: #2 Rocket Legs 12-1
Next Best: #3 Lease of Life 5-1
Super Add: #8 Independant George 8-1

10th: 35th Sword Dancer (Gr. I), 12f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Grand Couturier 3-1
Best Value: #3 Lauro 10-1
Next Best: #10 Musketier 6-1
Super Add: #5 Rising Moon 12-1

11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Whirlwind Poppy 3-1
Best Value: #4 Urbano 20-1
Next Best: #7 Brazen Kat 6-1
Super Add: #1 (POE) Spa City Fever 20-1

$200 P6 Play:

Brutally tough sequence..

6: 1-4-5-6-7-9
7: 1-2
8: 2-4
9: 5
10: 1-3
11: 1-6

6x2x2x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$100 P4 Play:

8: 2-4
9: 2-5
10: 1-3-5-6-10
11: 1-4-5-6-7

2x2x5x5 = $100

Good luck!
Steve

Running late this a.m. Thoughts on Thursday and today later this morning after Hall of Fame inductions ceremony..

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Classic Moon 5-2
Next Best: #4 Band of Thuinder 3-1
Best Value: #10 U. S. Cavalry 8-1
Super Add: #7 Eltish Star 12-1

2nd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 East Breaks 3-1
Best Value: #2 Uno Peso 9-2
Next Best: #6 Spina 7-2
Super Add: #3 Credit Limit 5-2

3rd: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Life at Ten 7-2
Best Value: #1a (POE) Spring Elusion 6-1
Next Best: #2 Extra Sharp 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 See the Forest 12-1

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Morethan Fourhours 2-1
Best Value: #10 Southern Hero 5-1
Next Best: #2 Baronshill 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Lord 12-1

5th: S/HCP, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Hold That Prospect 7-2
Best Value: #3 Successful Sarah 8-1
Next Best: #6 Poovey 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Super Slash 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-6-7
3: 1-2-8
4: 1-10
5: 3-6-8-9

3x3x24 = $72

6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 (POE) Drover 6-1
Most Likely: #6 Billions Boy 3-1
Next Best: #9 Bridgetown 7-2
Super Add: #1 Crystal Moment 5-1

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fluke 5-2
Best Value: #7 Valtrus 8-1
Next Best: #2 Pick Six 3-1
Super Add: #5 Yield Bogey 10-1

8th: Hall of Fame (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Terrific betting race featuring a superbly matched group of sophs..

Most Likely: #1 Straight Story 7-2
Best Value: #7 Midnight Mischief 15-1
Next Best: #8 Courageous Cat 9-2
Super Add: #3 Lime Rickey 6-1

9th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Into the Wind 2-1
Best Value: #2 Holiday Trip 8-1
Next Best: #8 Hard to Explain 5-2
Super Add: #10 Find the Wire 7-2

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-6-9
7: 2-5-6-7
8: 1-7-8
9: 7

4x4x3x1 = $48

Good luck!
Steve