8/25 (SAR): Travers, King's Bishop, Test (G1's), Ballston Spa (G3)

[RockHardTen1985]

Big field does not equal good betting race. This is not a good betting race. The 2 most likely winners will be 9-5 and 3-1. Or close to those odds.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Big field does not equal good betting race. This is not a good betting race. The 2 most likely winners will be 9-5 and 3-1. Or close to those odds.

Which is the same thing most everyone will say about most graded races. Races arent run on paper.

[NTamm1215]

Any race where Alpha is the favorite is a good betting race.

[zippyneedsawin]

Liaison at 8-1 against this field looks fine by me. He's got just as good a shot as some of the 'favs' in this race but should be a nice price.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Any race where Alpha is the favorite is a good betting race.

Can you explain? Not disagreeing, just would like your perspective.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Can you explain? Not disagreeing, just would like your perspective.

Alpha is rather mediocre. He has flopped in his two biggest spots, which happened to both occur outside of NY, creating a convenient excuse. His Jim Dandy win is terribly dressed up, as he rode a strong speed bias that developed as the day wore on and set very comfortable fractions in doing so. While the pace scenario in here is not altogether different, he is the type of horse that you are supposed to be interested in betting against.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Alpha is rather mediocre. He has flopped in his two biggest spots, which happened to both occur outside of NY, creating a convenient excuse. His Jim Dandy win is terribly dressed up, as he rode a strong speed bias that developed as the day wore on and set very comfortable fractions in doing so. While the pace scenario in here is not altogether different, he is the type of horse that you are supposed to be interested in betting against.

Not disagreeing with any of your points, but while this race might be big in name, it's really only big in name only.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Any race where Alpha is the favorite is a good betting race.

Agreed.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Any race where Alpha is the favorite is a good betting race.

I agree, and what is so great about Neck 'n Neck as well?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I agree, and what is so great about Neck 'n Neck as well?

Your a figure guy. His CD races destroy everyone in this race. Including Alpha.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Your a figure guy. His CD races destroy everyone in this race. Including Alpha.

No they don't, not on mine.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

No they don't, not on mine.

Ok. I respect that. Who do you like?

[pmayjr]

So with most of the best 3 year olds retiring, it's making me wonder about some prominent ones earlier in the year-
Secret Circle?
Algorithms?
Mark Valeski?
Gemologist?
Creative Cause?

If the connections of some also-rans like Optimizer, Dullahan, Daddy Nose Best, My Adonis etc. knew there'd be more defections from this race than recruits from Penn St football, you probably would see even more entries lol