8/25 (SAR): Travers, King's Bishop, Test (G1's), Ballston Spa (G3)

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Any race where Alpha is the favorite is a good betting race.

Can you explain? Not disagreeing, just would like your perspective.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Can you explain? Not disagreeing, just would like your perspective.

Alpha is rather mediocre. He has flopped in his two biggest spots, which happened to both occur outside of NY, creating a convenient excuse. His Jim Dandy win is terribly dressed up, as he rode a strong speed bias that developed as the day wore on and set very comfortable fractions in doing so. While the pace scenario in here is not altogether different, he is the type of horse that you are supposed to be interested in betting against.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Alpha is rather mediocre. He has flopped in his two biggest spots, which happened to both occur outside of NY, creating a convenient excuse. His Jim Dandy win is terribly dressed up, as he rode a strong speed bias that developed as the day wore on and set very comfortable fractions in doing so. While the pace scenario in here is not altogether different, he is the type of horse that you are supposed to be interested in betting against.

Not disagreeing with any of your points, but while this race might be big in name, it's really only big in name only.