Pletcher's stock

[hockey2315]

Baffert's not far behind quality-wise

[Indian Charlie]

I remember back in the 80's when Lukas, for two or three consecutive years, had like half or more of all Mr. Prospectors from those respective foal crops.

I think one year I could actually name seventeen of them off of the top of my head.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Baffert's not far behind quality-wise

I think Pletcher has an edge on Baffert from every single angle quality-wise, and it's not even close quantity wise.

In 2011, Baffert debuted 70 horses. Pletcher debuted 137.

In 2012, Baffert has debuted 27 horses. Pletcher has debuted 55.

He's literally doubling him up on quantity.

And Ben Leon's four yearllings worth $6.5 million didn't even make it to debuts for Pletcher.

[hockey2315]

I certainly wouldn't disagree about the quantity part--which is why I specifically said "quality-wise"--but I think it is very likely that the average horse in Baffert's barn is worth more than the average horse in Pletcher's barn. It would make sense considering how much Pletcher's stock dwarfs Baffert's in sheer quantity.

Obviously these stats aren't complete and it's a small sample size, but I went through each trainer's debut winners over the past year and averaged the purchase prices of those that were published in the Formulator PPs (so I didn't count RNAs and homebreds). . .

Baffert debut winners avg. purchase price: $360,000 (from 12 winners)
Pletcher: $175,000 (from 23 winners)

Double the quantity, half the quality (if we're considering auction price and quality to be synonymous).

[Calzone Lord]

It's a good argument, but that isn't much of a sample size.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I certainly wouldn't disagree about the quantity part--which is why I specifically said "quality-wise"--but I think it is very likely that the average horse in Baffert's barn is worth more than the average horse in Pletcher's barn. It would make sense considering how much Pletcher's stock dwarfs Baffert's in sheer quantity.

Obviously these stats aren't complete and it's a small sample size, but I went through each trainer's debut winners over the past year and averaged the purchase prices of those that were published in the Formulator PPs (so I didn't count RNAs and homebreds). . .

Baffert debut winners avg. purchase price: $360,000 (from 12 winners)
Pletcher: $175,000 (from 23 winners)

Double the quantity, half the quality (if we're considering auction price and quality to be synonymous).

That number is skewed given the purchases by Kaleem Shah.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by asudevil

That number is skewed given the purchases by Kaleem Shah.

Did he hire Zayat's old buyer? The purchase price of Brigand is easily one of the most hilarious in the history of racing.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by asudevil

That number is skewed given the purchases by Kaleem Shah.

I don't understand how that would make things skewed. The whole point is that Baffert gets really expensive horses from guys like Shah. Obviously it would be better to go further back and increase the sample size, but it'll take too long.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't understand how that would make things skewed. The whole point is that Baffert gets really expensive horses from guys like Shah. Obviously it would be better to go further back and increase the sample size, but it'll take too long.

It only makes it skewed if there is one, maybe two, huge priced yearlings and the rest are very modest.

I doubt that's the case.

[Calzone Lord]

Brigand was a $90,000 yearling and $925,000 2yo.

Macho Rocket was a $22,000 yearling and a $825,000 2yo.

Both of these fine pinhooks slightly out of Klaravich's price range won their debut for Baffert.

Baffert debut winners avg. purchase price: $360,000 (from 12 winners)

Removing Brigand and Macho Rocket makes Baffert's avg winning purchase price at 185K from 10 debut winners.

I wouldn't say skewed, but it's just not a big sample.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It only makes it skewed if there is one, maybe two, huge priced yearlings and the rest are very modest.

I doubt that's the case.

Right.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

In 2011, Baffert debuted 70 horses. Pletcher debuted 137.

The amazing part is the 3YO second season is about to start. Despite the quantity and supposed quality of the horses given to him, unless I am missing something, there are only two horses that started with him that may be factors in any of these races: Disposablepleasure and Gemologist. The "program" is chewing up a lot of horses.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

The amazing part is the 3YO second season is about to start. Despite the quantity and supposed quality of the horses given to him, unless I am missing something, there are only two horses that started with him that may be factors in any of these races: Disposablepleasure and Gemologist. The "program" is chewing up a lot of horses.

Owners want a guy like Pletcher who looks and acts like a CEO.

Imagine for one second that Jeff Mulllins wasn't a fruitcake. Imagine he doesn't wear a terrible mullet. Imagine he never went into bodybuilding and made a bigger joke of himself. Imagine other trainers haven't tried to stamp him as a cheater...something they rarely do with other suspicious guys. Imagine he didn't have all of the violations and he didn't call bettors "idiots" and he doesn't make a fool of himself whenever he tries to talk.

Mullins has basically been, in my opinion, no doubt about it the best horse trainer in this country over the last 15 years ... and he literally gets no stock. He's taken about five horses to the Kentucky Derby, he's won 3 Santa Anita Derbys and a Wood Memorial ... and each time he pulled the horse right out of his ass.

He's gone entire years without a single six figure 2yo. Without a single six figure yearling. Without any nicely bred homebreds. He claims horses out of maiden claiming races and gets them to beat Pleasantly Perfect at Del Mar the same year and run 3rd in the Dubai World Cup.

Since 1995, he's started more than 5,000 horses and has a profitable ROI... yet people bet his horses blind on his name and still his ROI remains positive.

Jeff Mullins is a better trainer than Pletcher ... but he gets nothing and probably because horse owners don't want a guy with his image training horses for them.

I'm not saying Pletcher can't train -- he's Mullins like at Gulfstream every year -- but it's all about image and fashion.