Oaks and Derby Handicapping

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Keep hearing that Union Rags is not bred for the distance.Does anyone know if any of Dixie Union's progeny has run or even attempted to go 1 1/4?

Grasshopper did in the '07 Travers. In addition to having the same sire, Union Rags & Grasshoppers' dams have a similar pedigree so he might be one to look at as a comparison if you're interested in that sort of thing.

Personally I don't see anything about Union Rags in his pedigree or (more importantly) in his past performances that says 10f will neccesarily be a problem for him. Doesn't mean it won't be, but I see no reason to think that the 1f stretch out will hurt (or help) this particular colt.

[richard]

He's from the family of Colonial Affair, winner of the Belmont S. Also from family of Angliana, 2nd in the 10F Red Smith H., 11F Lawrence Realization, and 13F Gallant Fox. 2nd dam Terpsichorist set a ntr @ Med for 11F in 2:13, so distance does not appear to be a disqualifier.

[Thunder Gulch]

UR certainly doesn't have that classic 10 f pedigree, but the last decade has been a parade of 8-9f pedigree looks that won on class.

[VOL JACK]

Speaking of Grasshopper, where is he standing at stud.
He was a gorgeous horse.

[VOL JACK]

Nevermind, I found it on pedigree query.
He is standing at Lane's end Texas.

Mambo in Seattle is standing in South Africa.

[-BT-]

The 26th running of the $500,000-added Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Grade I) for 4-year-olds and up at 1
1/8 miles on the Matt Winn Turf Course: Al Khali, Brilliant Speed, Casino Host, Data Link, Doubles Partner, Get
Stormy, Little Mike, Papaw Bodie, Slim Shadey-GB, Turallure and Turbo Compressor.

would love to get ANY sort of value on him off his last

-bt-

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by -BT-

would love to get ANY sort of value on him off his last

-bt-

That race is wide open. If all that are listed there run, it will be very unlikely a speed horse wins... Like last year.

[RockHardTen1985]

When will the Oaks card be out?

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

When will the Oaks card be out?

I believe sometime Tuesday evening...............

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

When will the Oaks card be out?

Oaks draw is today at 11:00 eastern time. Hopefully the full card will be out by mid afternoon.

[Sightseek]

Has the Oaks been drawn? I got a TDN alert that Grace Hall was made the favorite.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Has the Oaks been drawn? I got a TDN alert that Grace Hall was made the favorite.

http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-do...-kentucky-oaks

-bt-

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Has the Oaks been drawn? I got a TDN alert that Grace Hall was made the favorite.

1 On Fire Baby Joe Johnson 4-1
2 Grace Hall Javier Castellano 5-2
3 Summer Applause Garrett Gomez 15-1
4 Eden's Moon Martin Garcia 12-1
5 Hard Not to Like Robby Albarado 20-1
6 Broadway's Alibi John Velazquez 4-1
7 Sacristy Mike Smith 50-1
8 Jemima's Pearl Joe Talamo 10-1
9 Believe You Can Rosie Napravnik 10-1
10 And Why Not Julien Leparoux 15-1
11 Karlovy Vary James Graham 20-1
12 Colonial Empress Corey Nakatani 50-1
13 Amie's Dini Jon Court 10-1
14 Yara Jesus Castanon 30-1
AE Oaks Lilly Rafael Bejarano 50-1

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Crunching The Numbers Of Post Positions
The Kentucky Derby post positions are very important as they are the starting blocks for the horses. Each horse gets a starting gate, which is numbered from the inner rail outward.

2010 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
1.Lookin at Lucky
2.Ice Box
3.Noble’s Promise
4.Super Saver
5.Line of David
6.Stately Victor
7.American Lion
8.Dean’s Kitten
9.Make Music for Me
10.Paddy O’Prado
11.Devil May Care
12.Conveyance
13.Jackson Bend
14.Mission Impazible
15.Discreetly Mine
16.Awesome Act
17.Dublin
18.Backtalk
19.Homeboykris
20.Sidney’s Candy
Theory Behind Kentucky Derby Post Positions
While the Kentucky Derby post positions are now picked at random, there is a meaning as to where each horse begins. Generally speaking, the closer that a horse is to the inside rail or barrier of the track – especially on the shorter tracks – the better chance it has of winning since the shortest way around the track is on the inside.

When the race begins, horses jockey for position and look to get a good start so that they can position themselves on the inside and avoid racing on the outside.

When a horse races on the outside, it loses ground on each turn. So overall, a post position that is closer to the inner rail means a better chance of racing on the inner rail, which means a better chance at winning the race.

History of Kentucky Derby Post Positions
When you take a look at the history of the Kentucky Derby post positions, one thing is clear: the closer you are to the rail, the better chance you have of winning.

The most winningest post positions are No. 1 (12 wins) and No. 5 (12) and when you do the math, the wins from those two spots are still greater than all the gates from No. 11 – No. 20 combined.

The wins coming from gates No. 1 – No. 5 total up to 51. The other 15 spots only total up to 59, so it gives a fairly good indication that post position is very important.

(1900 - 2009)
Position Wins
1 12
2 9
3 8
4 10
5 12
6 6
7 8
8 10
9 4
10 10
11 3
12 3
13 4
14 2
15 3
16 3
17 0
18 1
19 0
20 2

Kentucky Derby Post Positions By Year


YEAR NAME POST POSITION
1900 Lieut. Gibson 3
1901 His Eminence 3
1902 Alan-a-Dale 4
1903 Judge Himes 4
1904 Elwood 3
1905 Agile 1
1906 Sir Huon 4
1907 Pink Star 6
1908 Stone Street 4
1909 Wintergreen 6
1910 Donau 7
1911 Meridian 5
1912 Worth 5
1913 Donerail 5
1914 Old Rosebud 6
1915 Regret 2
1916 George Smith 8
1917 *Omar Khayyam 8
1918 Exterminator 5
1919 Sir Barton 1
1920 Paul Jones 2
1921 Behave Yourself 1
1922 Morvich 4
1923 Zev 10
1924 Black Gold 1
1925 Flying Ebony 6
1926 Bubbling Over 11
1927 Whiskery 7
1928 Reigh Count 4
1929 Clyde Van Dusen 20
1930 Gallant Fox 7
1931 Twenty Grand 5
1932 Burgoo King 13
1933 Brokers Tip 11
1934 Cavalcade 8
1935 Omaha 10
1936 Bold Venture 5
1938 Lawrin 1
1939 Johnstown 5
1940 Gallahadion 1
1941 Whirlaway 4
1942 Shut Out 3
1943 Count Fleet 5
1944 Pensive 4
1945 Hoop Jr. 12
1946 Assault 2
1947 Jet Pilot 13
1948 Citation 1
1949 Ponder 2
1950 Middleground 14
1951 Count Turf 9
1952 Hill Gail 1
1953 Dark Star 10
1954 Determine 7
1955 Swaps 8
1956 Needles 1
1957 Iron Liege 6
1958 Tim Tam 2
1959 *Tomy Lee 9
1960 Venetian Way 9
1961 Carry Back 14
1962 Decidedly 4
1963 Chateaugay 1
1964 Northern Dancer 7
1965 Lucky Debonair 8
1966 Kauai King 12
1967 Proud Clarion 7
1968 Forward Pass 13
1969 Majestic Prince 8
1970 Dust Commander 2
1971 Canonero II 12
1972 Riva Ridge 9
1973 Secretariat 10
1974 Cannonade 2
1975 Foolish Pleasure 3
1976 Bold Forbes 2
1977 Seattle Slew 4
1978 Affirmed 2
1979 Spectacular Bid 3
1980 Genuine Risk 10
1981 Pleasant Colony 7
1982 Gato Del Sol 18
1983 Sunny's Halo 10
1984 Swale 15
1985 Spend a Buck 10
1986 Ferdinand 1
1987 Alysheba 3
1988 Winning Colors 11
1989 Sunday Silence 10
1990 Unbridled 8
1991 Strike the Gold 5
1992 Lil E. Tee 10
1993 Sea Hero 6
1994 Go for Gin 8
1995 Thunder Gulch 16
1996 Grindstone 15
1997 Silver Charm 5
1998 Real Quiet 3
1999 Charismatic 16
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 15
2001 Monarchos 16
2002 War Emblem 5
2003 Funny Cide 5
2004 Smarty Jones 13
2005 Giacomo 10
2006 Barbaro 8
2007 Street Sense 7
2008 Big Brown 20
2009 Mine That Bird 8

[Danzig]

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-speeds...ucky-derby-fit


beyer on trinniberg and the potential to affect some of the other horses.

[analyizethis]

Any information on jockeys for El Padrino, Alpha or Rousing Sermon?

I think they each last their rider to another runner in the Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

Any information on jockeys for El Padrino, Alpha or Rousing Sermon?

I think they each last their rider to another runner in the Derby.

El Padrino - Bejarano
Rousing Sermon - Lezcano
Alpha - Maragh (likely)

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

El Padrino - Bejarano
Rousing Sermon - Lezcano
Alpha - Maragh (likely)

Ugh

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Danzig

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-speeds...ucky-derby-fit


beyer on trinniberg and the potential to affect some of the other horses.

Mr. Parbhoo might want to talk the owners of Keyed Entry to see what can happen to a nice sprinter like this when they are put in the Derby. I don't recall how far Keyed Entry ran before the Derby though I think it was further than what Trinniberg has run, but that horse was never the same after the Derby.

[slotdirt]

Keyed Entry ran in the Wood as his Derby prep.