Oaks and Derby Handicapping

[Sightseek]

Has the Oaks been drawn? I got a TDN alert that Grace Hall was made the favorite.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Has the Oaks been drawn? I got a TDN alert that Grace Hall was made the favorite.

http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-do...-kentucky-oaks

-bt-

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Has the Oaks been drawn? I got a TDN alert that Grace Hall was made the favorite.

1 On Fire Baby Joe Johnson 4-1
2 Grace Hall Javier Castellano 5-2
3 Summer Applause Garrett Gomez 15-1
4 Eden's Moon Martin Garcia 12-1
5 Hard Not to Like Robby Albarado 20-1
6 Broadway's Alibi John Velazquez 4-1
7 Sacristy Mike Smith 50-1
8 Jemima's Pearl Joe Talamo 10-1
9 Believe You Can Rosie Napravnik 10-1
10 And Why Not Julien Leparoux 15-1
11 Karlovy Vary James Graham 20-1
12 Colonial Empress Corey Nakatani 50-1
13 Amie's Dini Jon Court 10-1
14 Yara Jesus Castanon 30-1
AE Oaks Lilly Rafael Bejarano 50-1

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Crunching The Numbers Of Post Positions
The Kentucky Derby post positions are very important as they are the starting blocks for the horses. Each horse gets a starting gate, which is numbered from the inner rail outward.

2010 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
1.Lookin at Lucky
2.Ice Box
3.Noble’s Promise
4.Super Saver
5.Line of David
6.Stately Victor
7.American Lion
8.Dean’s Kitten
9.Make Music for Me
10.Paddy O’Prado
11.Devil May Care
12.Conveyance
13.Jackson Bend
14.Mission Impazible
15.Discreetly Mine
16.Awesome Act
17.Dublin
18.Backtalk
19.Homeboykris
20.Sidney’s Candy
Theory Behind Kentucky Derby Post Positions
While the Kentucky Derby post positions are now picked at random, there is a meaning as to where each horse begins. Generally speaking, the closer that a horse is to the inside rail or barrier of the track – especially on the shorter tracks – the better chance it has of winning since the shortest way around the track is on the inside.

When the race begins, horses jockey for position and look to get a good start so that they can position themselves on the inside and avoid racing on the outside.

When a horse races on the outside, it loses ground on each turn. So overall, a post position that is closer to the inner rail means a better chance of racing on the inner rail, which means a better chance at winning the race.

History of Kentucky Derby Post Positions
When you take a look at the history of the Kentucky Derby post positions, one thing is clear: the closer you are to the rail, the better chance you have of winning.

The most winningest post positions are No. 1 (12 wins) and No. 5 (12) and when you do the math, the wins from those two spots are still greater than all the gates from No. 11 – No. 20 combined.

The wins coming from gates No. 1 – No. 5 total up to 51. The other 15 spots only total up to 59, so it gives a fairly good indication that post position is very important.

(1900 - 2009)
Position Wins
1 12
2 9
3 8
4 10
5 12
6 6
7 8
8 10
9 4
10 10
11 3
12 3
13 4
14 2
15 3
16 3
17 0
18 1
19 0
20 2

Kentucky Derby Post Positions By Year


YEAR NAME POST POSITION
1900 Lieut. Gibson 3
1901 His Eminence 3
1902 Alan-a-Dale 4
1903 Judge Himes 4
1904 Elwood 3
1905 Agile 1
1906 Sir Huon 4
1907 Pink Star 6
1908 Stone Street 4
1909 Wintergreen 6
1910 Donau 7
1911 Meridian 5
1912 Worth 5
1913 Donerail 5
1914 Old Rosebud 6
1915 Regret 2
1916 George Smith 8
1917 *Omar Khayyam 8
1918 Exterminator 5
1919 Sir Barton 1
1920 Paul Jones 2
1921 Behave Yourself 1
1922 Morvich 4
1923 Zev 10
1924 Black Gold 1
1925 Flying Ebony 6
1926 Bubbling Over 11
1927 Whiskery 7
1928 Reigh Count 4
1929 Clyde Van Dusen 20
1930 Gallant Fox 7
1931 Twenty Grand 5
1932 Burgoo King 13
1933 Brokers Tip 11
1934 Cavalcade 8
1935 Omaha 10
1936 Bold Venture 5
1938 Lawrin 1
1939 Johnstown 5
1940 Gallahadion 1
1941 Whirlaway 4
1942 Shut Out 3
1943 Count Fleet 5
1944 Pensive 4
1945 Hoop Jr. 12
1946 Assault 2
1947 Jet Pilot 13
1948 Citation 1
1949 Ponder 2
1950 Middleground 14
1951 Count Turf 9
1952 Hill Gail 1
1953 Dark Star 10
1954 Determine 7
1955 Swaps 8
1956 Needles 1
1957 Iron Liege 6
1958 Tim Tam 2
1959 *Tomy Lee 9
1960 Venetian Way 9
1961 Carry Back 14
1962 Decidedly 4
1963 Chateaugay 1
1964 Northern Dancer 7
1965 Lucky Debonair 8
1966 Kauai King 12
1967 Proud Clarion 7
1968 Forward Pass 13
1969 Majestic Prince 8
1970 Dust Commander 2
1971 Canonero II 12
1972 Riva Ridge 9
1973 Secretariat 10
1974 Cannonade 2
1975 Foolish Pleasure 3
1976 Bold Forbes 2
1977 Seattle Slew 4
1978 Affirmed 2
1979 Spectacular Bid 3
1980 Genuine Risk 10
1981 Pleasant Colony 7
1982 Gato Del Sol 18
1983 Sunny's Halo 10
1984 Swale 15
1985 Spend a Buck 10
1986 Ferdinand 1
1987 Alysheba 3
1988 Winning Colors 11
1989 Sunday Silence 10
1990 Unbridled 8
1991 Strike the Gold 5
1992 Lil E. Tee 10
1993 Sea Hero 6
1994 Go for Gin 8
1995 Thunder Gulch 16
1996 Grindstone 15
1997 Silver Charm 5
1998 Real Quiet 3
1999 Charismatic 16
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 15
2001 Monarchos 16
2002 War Emblem 5
2003 Funny Cide 5
2004 Smarty Jones 13
2005 Giacomo 10
2006 Barbaro 8
2007 Street Sense 7
2008 Big Brown 20
2009 Mine That Bird 8

[Mike]

The #15 and #16 (first and second position inside the auxillary gate) have been quiet lately, but I'm not sure I'm giving up on this angle.

[wac]

anyone on here like her for the oaks? just breezing over the pps looks like a lot of forwardly placed horses maybe she picks up the pieces? what you all think?

[philcski]

Corey Nakatani should be embarrassed for taking the mount on Colonial Empress. I know Lukas has lost his mind but this is beyond ridiculous.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by philcski

Corey Nakatani should be embarrassed for taking the mount on Colonial Empress. I know Lukas has lost his mind but this is beyond ridiculous.

The AE is also ambitiously placed.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by philcski

Corey Nakatani should be embarrassed for taking the mount on Colonial Empress. I know Lukas has lost his mind but this is beyond ridiculous.

D Wayne is 0 for 57 in graded stakes races the last few years. I remember we were talking about this about 5 years ago and he was around 1 for 80 in graded stakes races at the time. I wonder what his record is in graded stakes races the last 10 years.

I think he must hold the all-time record for the worst performance in history over a 10 year period in graded stakes races. He must be like 2 for 250 or something like that over the last 10 years. It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by wac

anyone on here like her for the oaks? just breezing over the pps looks like a lot of forwardly placed horses maybe she picks up the pieces? what you all think?

Im using her as a backup. Shes slow, and her race this year sucked. Those are the negatives. The positives are her race over the track is really good. Her last work was awesome and there is a good amount of speed signed on. Pletchers horse and the Jones filly feel like they both need the lead, and then you have about 5 others who want to stalk/ be up close. If the race melts down, why cant she win at 15 or 20-1. Im working on the card now, Ill have more thoughts soon.

[richard]

Not one winner has come from the 3 inside post positions since 2000 in the KD.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im using her as a backup. Shes slow, and her race this year sucked. Those are the negatives. The positives are her race over the track is really good. Her last work was awesome and there is a good amount of speed signed on. Pletchers horse and the Jones filly feel like they both need the lead, and then you have about 5 others who want to stalk/ be up close. If the race melts down, why cant she win at 15 or 20-1. Im working on the card now, Ill have more thoughts soon.

I thought she was a little interesting at a huge price also. Not anymore.

[Sightseek]

Has another Juvenile field produced this many starters for the Derby?

The presence of Optimizer brings to nine the number of horses from the 13-horse Breeders’ Cup Juvenile who are in this Derby.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...tion-optimizer

[hockey2315]

I might back up w/ And Why Not, but think the 15-1 ML price is way low.

Full thoughts: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-kentucky.html

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I might back up w/ And Why Not, but think the 15-1 ML price is way low.

Full thoughts: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-kentucky.html

I was going to ask you your thoughts.... Thanks for that.
The thing about And Why Not is, I dont think she drifts up much. Trainer/Jockey attract money.

[RockHardTen1985]

LOL your going to love this but my other longshot is the Hard Spun from the Keeneland race.

[RockHardTen1985]

What does everyone think of the American Turf?
Im pressing 2,8. Tons of speed and it should set up for them. 1 of them at a giant price. Ill use Silver Max, because I have cashed on him before and I feel like I have 2 use him. I pegged him as a good turf horse early on.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Summer Applause is my upset pick in the Oaks!

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Summer Applause is my upset pick in the Oaks!

Love this horses chance here.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Love this horses chance here.

love her too, But I believe all the Summer Applause that you will hear this Summer, will be about Gemologist.......................Summer Applause/Gemologist.......Oaks/Derby Double