2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

He is slow, really slow. I would not take 500-1 on him.

[philcski]

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by philcski

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

Agreed. . . that's about half his fair odds at best.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

Legit Derby contender or not, 75-1 seems like an underlay on him at this point in time in my opinion.

No offense intended, but I don't think you are able to separate your being a fan and how you rate horses. If this horse had a different sire you wouldn't be nearly as interested in him as you are.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Legit Derby contender or not, 75-1 seems like an underlay on him at this point in time in my opinion.

No offense intended, but I don't think you are able to separate your being a fan and how you rate horses. If this horse had a different sire you wouldn't be nearly as interested in him as you are.

The only truth to that is that I became aware of the horse because of his sire.

Had I happened to have seen his debut otherwise, I'd have been impressed with the late flying move he made when he finally got his act together.

Again, he seems like a horse to me that will improve a lot as both the distances get longer and he gets more seasoning.

Combine that with what looks to be yet another lackluster group of classic horses, and, well, I think the horse is in the upper echelon of soon to be 3yos that have a real shot of winning the Derby.

I have never been a fan of Dynaformer, in the least, but I was utterly convinced Barbaro was going to win the Derby, even before his so called lackluster dirt debut in the Holy Bull. More so afterwards, come to think of it.

The only offspring of IC I ever liked for the Derby was Uncle Mo, but I also thought it was unlikely he'd run in it.

I thought Indian Blessing was overrated, and this was after watching her win twice. This from a person who said she was going to win the BCJF race before she made her first start.

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

[RockHardTen1985]

Its all apples and oranges if you ask me. Who can really make a line now, 7 months out? Im not sure how anyone can project what is fair and not fair.
Liason for example at 75-1, I really have no clue about that. If he wins the Grade 1 coming up at Hollywood what will his odds be? He should be favored to win that race, so maybe 75-1 is value.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

[tector]

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

If very recent history is any indication -- you might want to flirt around with something very lightly raced that won either a turf or synthetic route in fast time.

Big Brown won his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga -- got the fastest Saratoga 2yo Turf Beyer of the decade. Barbaro ran a triple digit Beyer in a turf route as a 2yo in his 2nd start. He was the fastest 2yo turf horse since Incurable Optimist.

Even Animal Kingdom won his maiden race 2nd time out by a good margin running an 84 Beyer going 9 furlongs at Keeneland in October. Wise Dan's Presque Isle Mile was UNQUESTIONABLY the best performance by any horse at PID this year. He just crushed the Graded Stakes Fayette at 9fs by a wide margin and got only a 97 Beyer in victory. You're talking about an older male Graded Stakes winner dominant in wide margin victory -- only 13 points faster than a 2nd time starter 2yo attempting 9fs.

Any lightly raced 2yo who can run in the 100 range routing on the turf - or 85 range routing on synthetic - is worth a look. The less classier his beaten competion the better. In theory, surface should matter... but distance has suddenly become of MAJOR importance because of how lightly raced and trained these horses are now compared to even six years ago.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

Depends on what we're calling a lights out performance, I guess.

15 of the 23 horses broke their maiden by 2 lengths or more. 12 of the 21 I have BSF for earned a figure of 84 or higher.