6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[Travis Stone]

Didn't Woody Stephens used to say, "If you can get a mile, you can go a mile and a half" or something similar to that..?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Didn't Woody Stephens used to say, "If you can get a mile, you can go a mile and a half" or something similar to that..?

Alot of folks are under the impression that closers should dominate the Belmont. Tis not the case.

[Rootdog1]

Funny - same discussion I had with the owner of Shack yesterday. The bottom line, they think he is getting better every day and if healthy it is worth a shot. Although...I know they are looking at specific plans for later in the year which would be fun if it worked out.

[jms62]

Unless some real speed signs up here Shackleford is going to be really tough. Animal Kingdom will be forced to go too fast too early and have nothing left. After a half in the Preakness I said to my wife the the leaders will finish at the back.. 2 of them did but Shackleford just kept going.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by jms62

Unless some real speed signs up here Shackleford is going to be really tough. Animal Kingdom will be forced to go too fast too early and have nothing left. After a half in the Preakness I said to my wife the the leaders will finish at the back.. 2 of them did but Shackleford just kept going.

He probably went faster early than most people think in the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness seemed like a moderate pace. I feel AK will adapt to any style.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Didn't Woody Stephens used to say, "If you can get a mile, you can go a mile and a half" or something similar to that..?

Tony Black had a great quote Monday about front-running routers with which Rich Migliore heartily agreed:

"It's not how fast you're going. It's how you're going fast."

Stayers in a comfortable rythym that aren't draining the red blood cell/oxygen reserves stored in the spleen because they haven't been stressed, can keep going a long time... longer than their pedigrees 'say' they can. In the process, they've put those behind them in a difficult position of having to chase, and many times panic. It's part of the dynamic of why horses on/near the lead fare as well as they do in the Belmont.

On top of this, is the myopia of those who seem insistent on refusing to notice that Shackleford's dam Oatsee has repeatedly produced steadfast route-goers including Orientate daughter Lady Joanne, an Alabama (10f) winner.

[randallscott35]

If Commendable can win the Belmont, any horse can.

[Rootdog1]

No kidding about Oatsee SB - I am upset they sold Oatsee in foal to an AP Indy last year.....talk about someone getting a good deal (even at around ~$1.5M)!!!!!!!!!!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Stayers in a comfortable rythym that aren't draining the red blood cell/oxygen reserves stored in the liver because they haven't been stressed, can keep going a long time... longer than their pedigrees 'say' they can.

It's actually the spleen that stores red blood cells in the horse. As for the stress component, remember that Shackleford was a handful going to the gate at Pimlico and from what I've read is typically a "hot-blooded" horse.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's actually the spleen that stores red blood cells in the horse. As for the stress component, remember that Shackleford was a handful going to the gate at Pimlico and from what I've read is typically a "hot-blooded" horse.

Can you give horses beta blockers to calm them down?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's actually the spleen that stores red blood cells in the horse. As for the stress component, remember that Shackleford was a handful going to the gate at Pimlico and from what I've read is typically a "hot-blooded" horse.

Excuse me. Spleen. Thx RT.. Fascinating topic regarding pre-race v. in-race 'anxiety'... Not sure pre-race eagerness/tension necessarily precludes a 'run-off' mentality or lactic acid build-up. I sent Allday an article regarding stamina/blood cell distribution in advance of next week because I love this question as a discussion point.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Excuse me. Spleen. Thx RT.. Fascinating topic regarding pre-race v. in-race 'anxiety'... Not sure pre-race eagerness/tension necessarily precludes a 'run-off' mentality or lactic acid build-up. I sent Allday an article regarding stamina/blood cell distribution in advance of next week because I love this question as a discussion point.

This will be a very interesting segment. There is so much made of pre-race antics it would be great to have Allday's perspective.

Paul

[PatCummings]

I said to a friend before the race that Shackleford looked like DaTara, a sweaty mess before his Belmont win. It doesn't help I said this 30 seconds before the race. Point being, this same person turned to me as the horses loaded in for the 2008 Belmont and said "DaTara looks like a longshot to get five furlongs."

That was when I learned that prerace appearances don't always tell the story.

[AeWingnut]

don't know but heard there was another horse that used to get worked up before races... think his name was Seattle Slew

[santana]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I said to a friend before the race that Shackleford looked like DaTara, a sweaty mess before his Belmont win. It doesn't help I said this 30 seconds before the race. Point being, this same person turned to me as the horses loaded in for the 2008 Belmont and said "DaTara looks like a longshot to get five furlongs."

That was when I learned that prerace appearances don't always tell the story.

It certainly happens, that a washed out horse does run good at times. But i would rather toss em most of the time.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fascinating topic regarding pre-race v. in-race 'anxiety'... Not sure pre-race eagerness/tension necessarily precludes a 'run-off' mentality or lactic acid build-up. I sent Allday an article regarding stamina/blood cell distribution in advance of next week because I love this question as a discussion point.

Looking forward to it. Of course, when it all comes down to it, the pre-Preakness antics of Shackleford, and the various interpretations of them, only illustrate that there are no hard and fast rules in this game. From my handy DRF pocket guide to wagering and winning:

Note any horses that appear agitated or very nervous or sweaty. These horses may not be at peak performance levels.

Then again, they may be.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Is there a Tomlinson-like number for this for each horse?

LOL. Check with Somer. Maybe Dr. Roman has one.