6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I don't know if I have been brain washed by the tactics of many of today's connections (by babying and over protecting horses), but I really don't understand or see the need for MMM (and for that matter Animal Kingdom/Shackelford) to run at Belmont. Obviously there is no TC at stake, so why run for the 3rd time in 5 weeks? Both horses (AK & Shack) have run big the last 2 races, so why not sit out the Belmont and rest up for the summer campaign?

if he's healthy, why not? big purse money involved

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

if he's healthy, why not? big purse money involved

In AK and Shack you are talking about horses that had 4 & 5 career starts going into the Derby. Now you are talking about them racing for the 3rd time in 5 weeks. Is it a bit excessive for a young lightly raced horse? I don't know what the right answer is , like I said maybe I have been influenced by the light schedules that many of the older horses have taken over the last couple of years.

As far as the purse goes, there are plenty of big ones in the summer as well.

I guess it might be an interesting poll question. What would you do if you were the owner of AK, Shack or MMM? Would you race for the 3rd time in 5 weeks or would you give your horse a break before prepping for the mid summer derbys and an eventual trip to the BC.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

In AK and Shack you are talking about horses that had 4 & 5 career starts going into the Derby. Now you are talking about them racing for the 3rd time in 5 weeks. Is it a bit excessive for a young lightly raced horse? I don't know what the right answer is , like I said maybe I have been influenced by the light schedules that many of the older horses have taken over the last couple of years.

As far as the purse goes, there are plenty of big ones in the summer as well.

I guess it might be an interesting poll question. What would you do if you were the owner of AK, Shack or MMM? Would you race for the 3rd time in 5 weeks or would you give your horse a break before prepping for the mid summer derbys and an eventual trip to the BC.

If I was an owner, and the horse was eating up and training fine and not losing much weight, I'd run no doubt. I'd run whenever I could if those conditions in the first sentence were met. Shoot, I wouldnt even mind if my trainer actually raced my horse to get it in top shape!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

In AK and Shack you are talking about horses that had 4 & 5 career starts going into the Derby. Now you are talking about them racing for the 3rd time in 5 weeks. Is it a bit excessive for a young lightly raced horse? I don't know what the right answer is , like I said maybe I have been influenced by the light schedules that many of the older horses have taken over the last couple of years.

As far as the purse goes, there are plenty of big ones in the summer as well.

I guess it might be an interesting poll question. What would you do if you were the owner of AK, Shack or MMM? Would you race for the 3rd time in 5 weeks or would you give your horse a break before prepping for the mid summer derbys and an eventual trip to the BC.

To me, I can see Animal Kingdom with his running style going in the Belmont, Shackleford is a more difficult question, on the one hand I don't see him getting 12 furlongs, on the other hand I think Woody Stevens, who knew a bit about winning the Belmont, use to say it was a speed horse's race. Mucho Macho Man is a younger horse and should not run in the Belmont, he will be much more a factor later in the year. I will look long and hard at Master of Hounds again but his connections are idiots in my opinion...

[Travis Stone]

Didn't Woody Stephens used to say, "If you can get a mile, you can go a mile and a half" or something similar to that..?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Didn't Woody Stephens used to say, "If you can get a mile, you can go a mile and a half" or something similar to that..?

Alot of folks are under the impression that closers should dominate the Belmont. Tis not the case.

[Rootdog1]

Funny - same discussion I had with the owner of Shack yesterday. The bottom line, they think he is getting better every day and if healthy it is worth a shot. Although...I know they are looking at specific plans for later in the year which would be fun if it worked out.

[jms62]

Unless some real speed signs up here Shackleford is going to be really tough. Animal Kingdom will be forced to go too fast too early and have nothing left. After a half in the Preakness I said to my wife the the leaders will finish at the back.. 2 of them did but Shackleford just kept going.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Didn't Woody Stephens used to say, "If you can get a mile, you can go a mile and a half" or something similar to that..?

Tony Black had a great quote Monday about front-running routers with which Rich Migliore heartily agreed:

"It's not how fast you're going. It's how you're going fast."

Stayers in a comfortable rythym that aren't draining the red blood cell/oxygen reserves stored in the spleen because they haven't been stressed, can keep going a long time... longer than their pedigrees 'say' they can. In the process, they've put those behind them in a difficult position of having to chase, and many times panic. It's part of the dynamic of why horses on/near the lead fare as well as they do in the Belmont.

On top of this, is the myopia of those who seem insistent on refusing to notice that Shackleford's dam Oatsee has repeatedly produced steadfast route-goers including Orientate daughter Lady Joanne, an Alabama (10f) winner.

[randallscott35]

If Commendable can win the Belmont, any horse can.

[Rootdog1]

No kidding about Oatsee SB - I am upset they sold Oatsee in foal to an AP Indy last year.....talk about someone getting a good deal (even at around ~$1.5M)!!!!!!!!!!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Stayers in a comfortable rythym that aren't draining the red blood cell/oxygen reserves stored in the liver because they haven't been stressed, can keep going a long time... longer than their pedigrees 'say' they can.

It's actually the spleen that stores red blood cells in the horse. As for the stress component, remember that Shackleford was a handful going to the gate at Pimlico and from what I've read is typically a "hot-blooded" horse.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's actually the spleen that stores red blood cells in the horse. As for the stress component, remember that Shackleford was a handful going to the gate at Pimlico and from what I've read is typically a "hot-blooded" horse.

Can you give horses beta blockers to calm them down?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's actually the spleen that stores red blood cells in the horse. As for the stress component, remember that Shackleford was a handful going to the gate at Pimlico and from what I've read is typically a "hot-blooded" horse.

Excuse me. Spleen. Thx RT.. Fascinating topic regarding pre-race v. in-race 'anxiety'... Not sure pre-race eagerness/tension necessarily precludes a 'run-off' mentality or lactic acid build-up. I sent Allday an article regarding stamina/blood cell distribution in advance of next week because I love this question as a discussion point.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Is there a Tomlinson-like number for this for each horse?

LOL. Check with Somer. Maybe Dr. Roman has one.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

In AK and Shack you are talking about horses that had 4 & 5 career starts going into the Derby. Now you are talking about them racing for the 3rd time in 5 weeks. Is it a bit excessive for a young lightly raced horse? I don't know what the right answer is , like I said maybe I have been influenced by the light schedules that many of the older horses have taken over the last couple of years.

As far as the purse goes, there are plenty of big ones in the summer as well.

I guess it might be an interesting poll question. What would you do if you were the owner of AK, Shack or MMM? Would you race for the 3rd time in 5 weeks or would you give your horse a break before prepping for the mid summer derbys and an eventual trip to the BC.

i figured that both would skip after the preakness...that was based on horses like street sense, who's trainer said 'what's the point?' when asked if he was going to belmont after losing to curlin.
however, i hope they both go...and in the current climate, i expect to see more racing rather than less. horses aren't commanding the stud fees they used to for one..and these horses don't have much separating them at this point. winning another classic, should animal kingdom or shackleford manage it, would be a huge boost for them when it comes time for them to retire. typically, when the breeding business takes a hit, like it has been recently, horses run longer. real quiet, silver charm and the like ran at four. then, when business boomed, they couldn't get them to the shed quickly enough. any time you see more racing rather than less, it's a good thing. these horses can handle it, it's the trainers who shy away.

also, shackleford evidently flourished after the derby-he apparently needed the race. he didn't quite hang in there in fla, or in ky-but look at how he ran in baltimore.