In a word Classless

[Riot]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

dems are defending 23 senate seats in 2012 while republicans have only 10. some of the democratic seats are in very red states. republicans need 4 seats or 3 if they take the white house. if i was a republican i'd feel pretty good about the chances of taking the senate in 2 years.

it would really take another wave election in the other direction to the one we just saw to prevent it.

you know i'm on your side riot but math is a bitch here.

I know what the math is, and yes, it is a bitch - I figured both H & S would be GOP in 2012.

But watching what these guys are doing so far: they are not starting out strong at all, the Tea Party will do nothing but harm them over the next 2 years, as will caving to the extreme wingnut base (as they are doing daily now, see Pawlenty). They'd better turn it around if they want to win what they "should". Don't forget the Presidential wave will carry some Dems.

The Dems don't have very many blue dogs left, it's become pretty polarized between red and blue. Will be a very interesting election.

Unbelievable that no GOP (well, one has) has declared yet for President. I think they have written it off, and none of the truly viable candidates want to risk the reputation harm of the guaranteed loss.

I think there will be a strong resurgence of the "moderate" Republican, as some guys are simply already drawing the line in the sand and refusing to compromise their intelligence and ethics when facing the more crazy rightest part of the party. Joe Scarborough had a nice editorial in Politico** the other day. But I think this will fracture, not unite, the party. The convention in Tampa will be exciting - sorta like the 1960's.

I'll go on the limb right now saying Jeb Bush-Rubio in 2016.

** Presidential-year elections are driven by a completely different demographic. Good luck trying that “Second Amendment remedies” crap on swing voters in the suburbs. It just won’t fly. And neither will the cacophony of crazy talk that has gripped the far right for the past two years.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories...#ixzz1BXVsGH8s

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Riot

I know what the math is, and yes, it is a bitch - I figured both H & S would be GOP in 2012.

But watching what these guys are doing so far: they are not starting out strong at all, the Tea Party will do nothing but harm them over the next 2 years, as will caving to the extreme wingnut base (as they are doing daily now, see Pawlenty). They'd better turn it around if they want to win what they "should". Don't forget the Presidential wave will carry some Dems.

The Dems don't have very many blue dogs left, it's become pretty polarized between red and blue. Will be a very interesting election.

Unbelievable that no GOP (well, one has) has declared yet for President. I think they have written it off, and none of the truly viable candidates want to risk the reputation harm of the guaranteed loss.

I think there will be a strong resurgence of the "moderate" Republican, as some guys are simply already drawing the line in the sand and refusing to compromise their intelligence and ethics when facing the more crazy rightest part of the party. Joe Scarborough had a nice editorial in Politico the other day. But I think this will fracture, not unite, the party. The convention in Tampa will be exciting - sorta like the 1960's.

I'll go on the limb right now saying Jeb Bush-Rubio in 2016.

orrin hatch in utah and richard lugar in indiana will both face tea party primary challenges and i wouldn't be surprised to see either one lose. utah will never elect a democrat and unless unemployment is a lot better in 2012 (which would be a surprise) i doubt a democrat can win in indiana.

it's too early for anyone to declare for president. obama hasn't made his announcement either. look for all of those in the fall. right now the serious candidates are still raising money and building organizations for the primaries. i wouldn't dismiss the politics of resentment. it's worked for 50 years. why wouldn't it keep working? they'll be plenty of republican candidates.

[Riot]

Good points. It will be fun to watch.

I do think the Tea Party will lose, not gain, popularity and influence over the next two years, based upon the performance of the TP currently in Congress (& Senate). Even if the only standard for the TP is to obstruct and vote no, I think they will fail in the TP eyes back home. Some are all ready holding fundraisers and raising ire in the TP hometown folks' eyes.

BUT - the debt ceiling will be the first test, no?

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

orrin hatch in utah and richard lugar in indiana will both face tea party primary challenges and i wouldn't be surprised to see either one lose. utah will never elect a democrat and unless unemployment is a lot better in 2012 (which would be a surprise) i doubt a democrat can win in indiana.

it's too early for anyone to declare for president. obama hasn't made his announcement either. look for all of those in the fall. right now the serious candidates are still raising money and building organizations for the primaries. i wouldn't dismiss the politics of resentment. it's worked for 50 years. why wouldn't it keep working? they'll be plenty of republican candidates.

Yea the tea party wack jobs didn't care much for Lugar voting on his own and not follow party lines. Let's face it. He still follows party lines, but at least he's one Republican who has some independent bias.

With that said, I'd be in utter shock if Lugar is not re-elected. I just don't see it happening.

As for Hatch, I don't know about too well to know how much support he gets from his own state.