Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-13-2010, 11:17 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
Haynesfield was a winner at 10f before the JCGC?
Yeah, you got me. I guess the Suburban is only 9f nowadays.

Disregard everything I said.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-13-2010, 11:21 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Yeah, you got me. I guess the Suburban is only 9f nowadays.

Disregard everything I said.
Your mostly right anyway, I just think when a horse is crushed to odds on, he should be ready to run. I get the prep thing, just arguing my point.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-13-2010, 11:43 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
Your mostly right anyway, I just think when a horse is crushed to odds on, he should be ready to run. I get the prep thing, just arguing my point.
He should be ready to run? For who's benefit? It's called handicapping. Bettors are competing against each other, not the horsemen. There's much more to it besides merely identifying the fastest horse. That's why they put all those trainer stats and what not along with the PPs.

Bettors are on the outside looking in, for the most part disconnected from the intentions of the horsemen (who are involved in a totally different aspect of the sport). Sometimes being aware of (or at least considering) the patterns and trends that have more to do with the human connections rather than the horse itself can be an advantage.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:04 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

I've seen countless examples of horses running giant races in what connections have called "preps" going in .. only to lay an egg when supposed to step up in their main objective.

I think Blame and Fly Down both ran every bit as well as they did in the BC Classic that they did in the JCGC. I know the speed figures won't reflect it - though I've heard CJ say he thinks the 111 Classic Beyer is a little too high and I agree.

I think the difference between the two races was that Haynesfield was loose on an unpressured lead in one ... and in the other one - he got squeezed hard coming out of the gate - and was denied the lead in the BC Classic pace meltdown.

I think a better example of horse prepping is obviously Zenyatta. All of her wins this year can be called preps. And in true "prep race" fashion - her trainer all of a sudden turned up the heat in her training right before the Classic.

To me - if a race is really a prep - and you have a horse short - there should be a sign of more intense training leading into the objective race. They worked Zenyatta hard for 7fs and 6fs in her final two works - and actually ran a fresh horse at her in the middle of a tag team workout.

Harmonious before her Grade 1 win at Keeneland is another example - she had 28 published works in her career leading into her final race before the KEE win and NOT ONE single bullet work - her first two works for that KEE race are both bullets. She steps up and destroys Evening Jewel (who beat her last time) and wins by a huge margins.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:22 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
I've seen countless examples of horses running giant races in what connections have called "preps" going in .. only to lay an egg when supposed to step up in their main objective.

I think Blame and Fly Down both ran every bit as well as they did in the BC Classic that they did in the JCGC. I know the speed figures won't reflect it - though I've heard CJ say he thinks the 111 Classic Beyer is a little too high and I agree.

I think the difference between the two races was that Haynesfield was loose on an unpressured lead in one ... and in the other one - he got squeezed hard coming out of the gate - and was denied the lead in the BC Classic pace meltdown.

I think a better example of horse prepping is obviously Zenyatta. All of her wins this year can be called preps. And in true "prep race" fashion - her trainer all of a sudden turned up the heat in her training right before the Classic.

To me - if a race is really a prep - and you have a horse short - there should be a sign of more intense training leading into the objective race. They worked Zenyatta hard for 7fs and 6fs in her final two works - and actually ran a fresh horse at her in the middle of a tag team workout.

Harmonious before her Grade 1 win at Keeneland is another example - she had 28 published works in her career leading into her final race before the KEE win and NOT ONE single bullet work - her first two works for that KEE race are both bullets. She steps up and destroys Evening Jewel (who beat her last time) and wins by a huge margins.
The idea of the prep is to have the horse at his/her best for the target. I realize it doesn't often happen like it is planned...but IMO Stall did not have Blame fully cranked for the JCGC. I said as much after the race. Why would he if the goal was the Classic? That is what I am talking about in regards to a prep.

In regards to Harmonius you're ignoring that she was probably lengths best in the Del Mar Oaks. Evening Jewel got a much better trip and Harmonious drifted out like Swain in the stretch.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-14-2010, 02:20 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
In regards to Harmonius you're ignoring that she was probably lengths best in the Del Mar Oaks. Evening Jewel got a much better trip and Harmonious drifted out like Swain in the stretch.
Harmonius showed much more speed than ever before and absolutely obliterated Evening Jewel by an extremely lopsided margin for a turf race at Keeneland.

I don't disagree that she was better than EJ when EJ beat her in the Del Mar Oaks .. but that doesn't mean you have to pretend that she didn't improve a ton in her next race when Shirreffs started to drill on her.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-14-2010, 05:53 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,370
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Harmonius showed much more speed than ever before and absolutely obliterated Evening Jewel by an extremely lopsided margin for a turf race at Keeneland.

I don't disagree that she was better than EJ when EJ beat her in the Del Mar Oaks .. but that doesn't mean you have to pretend that she didn't improve a ton in her next race when Shirreffs started to drill on her.
Dougie..

Not that we need it, but for further evidence of Shirreffs' skill in the prep/drill department, dig up Giacomo's page through the Derby. The works leading up to and on the Sunday or Monday before Derby showed the same screw-tightening method. While the race ultimately fell in his lap, Giacomo was at least ready to run the best race he was capable of that day, and that's all you can ask of a horse.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:00 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Harmonius showed much more speed than ever before and absolutely obliterated Evening Jewel by an extremely lopsided margin for a turf race at Keeneland.

I don't disagree that she was better than EJ when EJ beat her in the Del Mar Oaks .. but that doesn't mean you have to pretend that she didn't improve a ton in her next race when Shirreffs started to drill on her.
I'm not pretending, I agree. But why leave out that part?

You don't have to pretend Blame didn't improve in the Classic, because you have some weird thing against his campaign. He did and the prep served it's purpose.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-13-2010, 11:21 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Yeah, you got me. I guess the Suburban is only 9f nowadays.

Disregard everything I said.
Why even waste your time? You're talking to someone that thinks running in a prep is what is wrong with the sport. I guess if you started following the sport 5 years ago and had no desire to have any understanding of it prior to that it would make sense....or if you were an idiot.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:28 AM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

My only point was that these rankings are comical. If Blame is 2 then Z should be tied for, if not 1.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:37 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
My only point was that these rankings are comical. If Blame is 2 then Z should be tied for, if not 1.
Why exactly should she be ranked ahead of him?
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:44 AM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet. He beat her by a nose this year, congrats. The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:46 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet. He beat her by a nose this year, congrats. The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.
Hard to fault this spot on analysis.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:52 AM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet.
This is some of the worst logic ever posted on this board. That's no mean feat, considering the filth that has been strewn about this place.

And yet, it cut through all that like a hot knife through butter.

Quote:
He beat her by a nose this year, congrats.
Does this mean Switch should be tied with Blame, too?

Quote:
The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.
Is one of them that the stretch at CD was too short?
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-14-2010, 01:09 AM
DaTruth's Avatar
DaTruth DaTruth is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,969
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
This is some of the worst logic ever posted on this board. That's no mean feat, considering the filth that has been strewn about this place.

And yet, it cut through all that like a hot knife through butter.



Does this mean Switch should be tied with Blame, too?



Is one of them that the stretch at CD was too short?
If there was an award for post of the week, this one would get it.
__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-14-2010, 11:37 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet. He beat her by a nose this year, congrats. The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.
Since they're done overseas I can't fault you for not knowing how these are compiled. The numbers are assigned to horses based on their best performance in a given year. If you're not familiar with Harbinger go to Youtube and watch his race at Ascot. If you watch it and then think that she should be ranked with him my hats off to you.

As far as what happened one, two and three years ago, they matter as much in those rankings as they do the HOTY vote. Blame was also a graded stakes winner before she won the Classic last year.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-14-2010, 11:45 AM
CSC's Avatar
CSC CSC is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,408
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Since they're done overseas I can't fault you for not knowing how these are compiled. The numbers are assigned to horses based on their best performance in a given year. If you're not familiar with Harbinger go to Youtube and watch his race at Ascot. If you watch it and then think that from Japnshe should be ranked with him my hats off to you.

As far as what happened one, two and three years ago, they matter as much in those rankings as they do the HOTY vote. Blame was also a graded stakes winner before she won the Classic last year.
Check the races of Snow Fairy, her Oaks victories and especially this early morning's QE II from Japan, I think she's better than Ouiji Board.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-14-2010, 12:10 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC View Post
Check the races of Snow Fairy, her Oaks victories and especially this early morning's QE II from Japan, I think she's better than Ouiji Board.
That was phenomenal, I watched it last night (or morning). It was hilarious how much money Ave took in the pools.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 11-14-2010, 06:10 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Since they're done overseas I can't fault you for not knowing how these are compiled. The numbers are assigned to horses based on their best performance in a given year. If you're not familiar with Harbinger go to Youtube and watch his race at Ascot. If you watch it and then think that she should be ranked with him my hats off to you.

As far as what happened one, two and three years ago, they matter as much in those rankings as they do the HOTY vote. Blame was also a graded stakes winner before she won the Classic last year.
I cant tell if your just trying to be a dumbass on purpose or what your issue is. You and I have discussed these ratings before, so you know I know what they are. I know who Harbinger is, you also know that. Blame should not be uttered in the same sentence as him. Was the Clark before the Classic last year? If so congrats for being clever about something.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 11-14-2010, 06:13 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
I cant tell if your just trying to be a dumbass on purpose or what your issue is. You and I have discussed these ratings before, so you know I know what they are. I know who Harbinger is, you also know that. Blame should not be uttered in the same sentence as him. Was the Clark before the Classic last year? If so congrats for being clever about something.
Trying to be a dumbass? I'm not the one who said Zenyatta should be ranked first on that list.

Blame won the Fayette last year and it was run before the BC Classic. Zenyatta should be higher than 10th on that list, but she should not be first nor should she be ahead of Blame in my opinion.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.